Ontario Obliterator? I don’t know of one in past history that has dropped this steep into the Carolinas

Nice view on #16 at Silver Creek Golf Club near Morganton, NC

Coming soon: a brand new GSDM website. I know that some of you were users of the now defunct GSDM website which had replicated the original ESRL-hosted site where you could access the GWO, Hovmollers of AAM anomalies and its forcings (budget terms). I have rebuilt this from scratch using the new CORe data set. The v2.0 site will be MUCH richer, offering AAM analogs, LIM forecasts, regional contributions for AAM (as well as TauM), wind vector maps highlighting which wind perturbations are most strongly contributing to the zonal mean structures, detailed guidance on how to interpret the data and more! The idea is to better enable users to connect diagnosis of the general circulation to what it means for the forecast. A few sample plots below to whet the appetite!

How many of us do this? The snow blower is in the garage and the car is in the driveway! When you open the garage door and see this, do you: 1/look to see if the leaf blower is in the garage too? 2/rev up the snowblower and try not to take out your front tires OR 3/Just close the door and wait til spring? 😅

Really cool loop here of Blizzard 2026

There was much discussion about subsidence zones on the colder (WNW) side of snowbands during the recent blizzard. But you may still be wondering "why does it occur on that side of the band specifically?" Well, the answer has to do with the dynamics of frontogenesis:

The recent negative AO episode (Arctic blocking) produced quite a dip in the 30-60°N land-area average temperature. Per ERA5, the recent minimum daily value was -11.3°C, lowest since 2012. (The 1950-present record is -14.2°C in late Jan 1969)

It’s a snow day in Pinehurst

How was this not blizzard warning criteria? Getting absolutely rocked out here on. OBX #NCwx

Video from Lake Norman, NC (near Cowans Ford Dam at 3:45 PM) 7.5 inches of snow as of 5:20

It’s a long way to Memorial Day

4.4 inches as of 12:20

It’s pouring snow. 2.6 on the ground. 1.3 in the past hour. This is the one

Latest HRR thru 1pm

Amazing consistency shown at the end of today's ensemble runs (Day 15)

An image of classic cold air damming extending down into the Carolinas today

Here is a composite for all winters that had an official SSW in late November or early December. We had one this winter on November 28. The composite doesn't match what we've seen out west this winter, but the west-based -NAO is noted.