Fact Check: Did Nigeria’s Power Generation Truly Exceed 6,000MW Under Adelabu?
Nigeria’s former Minister of Power, Adebayo Adelabu, claimed that electricity generation peaked at over 6,000 megawatts (MW) during his tenure. He also noted that available generation capacity ranged between 3,500MW and 4,500MW when he assumed office in August 2023.
The claim, contained in his April 22, 2026 resignation letter, credited reforms under the Electricity Act 2023 and improvements across the power value chain—including the integration of the Zungeru Hydropower Plant—for the reported increase in generation.
What the Data Shows
To verify the claim, data from the Association of Power Generation Companies (APGC) and the Nigerian Electricity Regulatory Commission (NERC) was analysed, covering 2023 through early 2026.
2023: Peak generation ~5,000MW
2024: Peak ~5,528MW
2025: Peak ranged between ~5,300MW and ~5,801MW
Early 2026: Capacity dropped to ~4,089MW by March
While generation levels came close to 6,000MW, there is no verified record showing that the threshold was surpassed.
A Pattern of Fluctuation, Not Growth
NERC’s quarterly data highlights a volatile trend rather than sustained improvement:
Capacity rose to about 4,922MW in late 2023
Dropped in early 2024
Recovered through 2024 and 2025
Declined again to just over 4,000MW by March 2026
This inconsistency suggests the sector has yet to achieve stable, long-term gains.
Understanding the Metrics
According to APGC CEO Joy Ogaji, confusion often stems from mixing different industry terms:
Installed capacity: ~13,000–14,000MW
Available capacity: ~4,900–7,300MW
Peak generation: ~5,000–5,800MW
Average supply: ~4,100–4,600MW
Peak generation reflects a temporary high point, not continuous output. Even at peak levels, actual electricity delivered to consumers remains significantly lower.
The Bigger Picture
Despite reforms and infrastructure improvements, Nigeria’s power sector continues to face structural challenges across generation, transmission, and distribution. These constraints limit the ability to translate installed capacity into reliable electricity supply.
Verdict: False
There is no verified evidence that Nigeria’s power generation exceeded 6,000MW during Adelabu’s tenure. While output approached that level under optimal conditions, it never crossed the threshold, and average supply remains far below installed capacity.
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