Don't shoot the messenger! Interesting perspective from the other side (creating chaos in Europe creates arbitrage opportunities for US):
Post-Ukraine Lessons
Military expert Andrey Ilnitsky on the confrontation between Russia and the West
kommersant.ru/doc/8634349?fr…
2/ For some time now, the armed confrontation in Ukraine has transcended the boundaries of a mere regional conflict, transforming into a field laboratory for new types of warfare and a proving ground for the global reorganization of the world order.
3/ The conflict on the territory of the former Ukrainian SSR offers an opportunity to draw some fundamental lessons from contemporary history.
▪️Lesson one: a new Thirty Years' War and a total "gray zone."
4/ "Hybrid war" is a common term and a standard description of the modern world order, yet it fails to fully capture the complexity of what is unfolding. The logic of war has permeated every sphere of life, turning the world into a perpetual "gray zone."
5/ The objectives pursued go far beyond traditional military confrontation: the aim is the destruction of the established world order, international law, and the system of nation-states enshrined in the 1648 Peace of Westphalia.
6/ The doctrine of induced chaos—a classic tactic of the Anglo-Saxon geopolitical school—has established itself as the primary instrument. Donald Trump, whether he is the cause or the symptom, governs according to the logic of a hedge fund manager:
7/ his goal is not to foster stability but to fuel volatility, from which he derives political and economic profit. Unlike the elite, ordinary people (including Americans) lack a "hedging portfolio" and bear the brunt of the consequences. ▪️Lesson number two: a clash on the territory of the former Soviet Union is a war between the West and Russia. Events in the post-Soviet space have always been, and remain, a collective war by the West against Russia—against the Russian world.
9/ For Russia, it is an existential issue.
Last March, CIA Director John Ratcliffe clearly stated that Washington would continue to support Ukraine and regards Russia as one of its primary strategic adversaries.
10/ Secondly, the war against Ukraine as a sovereign state is over. Ukraine—or rather, the former Ukrainian Soviet Socialist Republic—has completely lost its sovereignty and has become an expendable tool in the hands of the West.
11/ Thirdly, from mid-2025, the conflict entered a new phase: a direct clash between NATO and the collective West against Russia. The rear echelons of this proxy war are located in Europe and the United States:
12/ weapons production, financing, intelligence, and operational control are concentrated in these regions.
Europe is ramping up military production and "reconfiguring" Ukrainian forces according to NATO standards.
13/ A prime example is the FP-5 Flamingo cruise missile, which combines Ukrainian airframes with Danish fuel, German electronics, Czech engine components, and British integration.
14/ Last April, the ARES (Allied Reform and Expert Support) military advisory council was established, comprising senior US/NATO officers and generals, as well as former CIA Director David Petraeus. In effect, the Ukrainian armed forces are increasingly becoming a NATO/EU instrument.
15/ Under the European Common Security and Defence Policy (CSDP), the EU has the right to establish its own army and deploy its contingents within the territory of member states. According to estimates, the future EU army will consist of 1 million troops;
16/ of these, up to 800,000 will be the "combat slaves" that the Kiev regime has stated it is willing to provide.
▪️Lesson three: the territory of the former Ukrainian Soviet Socialist Republic serves as a testing ground for new-generation warfare.
Traditionally, Russia's wartime priorities are the destruction of military forces and the breaking of the enemy's will, rather than territorial occupation. The West, conversely, aims for regime change, territorial colonization, and resource control.
18/ The future of Western warfare has already been outlined: artificial intelligence (AI), warfare in megacities, and the struggle for cognitive dominance (NATO's sixth operational domain).
19/ The 2026 operation against Iran highlighted the deep integration of artificial intelligence into the planning and management of military operations.
While preparing an operation of this scale would have required months of work in the past,
20/ Now, only a few days of machine-led processing are required. While the operational quality of this work was mediocre, the trend itself is significant.
21/ These are the same technologies employed by the CIA, MI6, and the Ukrainian regime against Russia in planning and organizing the "Spider Web" sabotage and terrorism operation in June 2025.
22/ In response to the adversary's technological superiority, asymmetric strategies are becoming increasingly relevant. A prime example is Iran's "mosaic defense," based on decentralization, regional autonomy, and systemic resilience.
▪️Lesson four: events in Ukraine and Iran signal a transition toward a global civilizational war of the mind. The West, led by the United States, struggles to maintain hegemony by attempting to destroy the ontological and value-based foundations of Russia, China, and Iran.
To survive, Russia must rely not only on technological and economic power but, above all, on its own historical, cultural, and spiritual foundations.
In the United States, eschatological motivations and radical technological approaches are becoming increasingly evident.
The Palantir manifesto, published in April 2026, effectively announces a transition to a new type of AI-based deterrence and openly asserts the superiority of certain civilizations over others.
25/27
26/ The lessons of the post-Ukraine period are clear: the world has entered an era of war between civilizations and a new Thirty Years' War. For Russia, this is an existential clash, fought—among other arenas—on the level of mindset and values.
27/ Standing firm and achieving victory is possible only through a clear understanding of the threat's magnitude, internal cohesion, and a mental readiness to fight seriously until final victory. As the saying goes: "He who fights half-heartedly digs his own grave."