$TERN
Attached is page 1 of a 6-page Oppenheimer analyst report on TERN issued today entitled:
"ELVN-001 TERNs the Spotlight to '701"
Oppenheimer has an 'Outperform' rating on TERN with a $20 price target.
Oppenheimer's 'Summary' regarding TERN in the report includes the following:
"In light of recently reported Ph1 ELVN-001 data presented at EHA, we wanted to share our perspective on implications to TERN-701.
Bottom line, while updated Ph1 efficacy of ELVN-001 appears promising, we believe the commercial opportunity for TERN-701 persists, given the multi-billion dollar CML market and '701's emerging profile vs. ELVN-001 and asciminib, including:
1) positive signals of safety, with no reported AE-related discontinuations in '701's interim readout;
2) specifically targeting the ABL myristoyl pocket (STAMP) inhibition compared to ELVN-001's active-site mechanism;
3) enhanced DDI profile; and
4) greater dosing convenience relative to asciminib.
Efficacy focus remains on '701's 6-mo. MMR readout on track for 4Q25, as we expect this clinical endpoint to have meaningful read-through to '701's pivotal trial and contextualize its differentiating features.
-- PRICE TARGET CALCULATION:
We value TERN with DCF methodology assuming a 12% discount rate, reflecting risk that we believe is associated with a developmentstage biotechnology company, and a -5% terminal value growth rate based on assumed patent expirations beyond 2039, driving our 12-18 month PT of $20. We forecast risk-adjusted peak total revenues of ~$2.7B in 2038.
KEY RISKS TO PRICE TARGET:
■ Clinical efficacy: TERN’s therapeutic pipeline fails to meet the clinical efficacy endpoints for its program in CML and obesity.
■ Clinical safety: A safety signal emerges from clinical studies of TERN’s pipeline therapies.
■ Manufacturing risk: Manufacturing issues could hinder regulatory approval or limit penetration of the commercial market.
■ Regulatory risk: Regulators raise additional requirements or concerns around development, delaying or preventing regulatory approval.
■ Commercial/competitive/reimbursement risk: Competitive pressures from development assets could lower market potential for the therapeutics in TERN’s pipeline. Negotiations with payors could limit market opportunity of the company’s therapeutic pipeline.
■ Financing: TERN may require additional funds to conduct additional studies or commercialize the company’s pipeline therapies.
Note: We see TERN, as a stock trading under $5, as speculative and appropriate for risk tolerant investors."
(Page 1 is not available here as X does not allow me to post pages from reports on this platform)