Market Rotation Report- 6/11/26
Third regime change in three days. Trump signaled a deal is close, and with enough oil supply buffers to keep crude under 100 dollars, the war premium bled out. Risk on snapped back hard. The Russell 2000 rose 2.34% and the VIX fell about 12%.
The war premium complex unwound. Oil
$USO minus 5.68. Nat gas
$UNG minus 4.91. E&P
$IEO minus 4.33. Commodities
$DBC minus 2.75. The dollar
$UUP lost its haven bid at minus 2.02. The exact inverse of Wednesday.
The quality leadership was semis and AI.
$SMH plus 4.97 and
$IGPT plus 4.96 re-engaged with their weekly trends still positive, so this is trend confirmation, not just a bounce. Add aerospace
$XAR plus 4.84, momentum
$FFTY plus 4.63, and quantum
$QTUM plus 3.78.
The speculative cohort ripped but is unproven. Space
$UFO plus 7.08. Meme
$MEME plus 6.93. Crypto miners
$WGMI plus 5.85. Uranium
$URA plus 4.09. All four carry negative weekly trends, so they are day 1 bounces. Every day 1 bounce this week failed on day 2.
The structural question is now live.
$QQQ led the cap group on the day for the first time this week at plus 1.65, but the weekly and monthly trends still favor small and mid value. Friday tests whether mega cap growth reclaims the trend or value reasserts.
Bottom line: a clean risk on snapback, but the daily tape is still hostage to Iran. Watch whether semis hold and whether the speculative bounce survives day 2.