$SPY 🤣🕷🕸
This mkt pattern is very different from all the past patterns being used as comps. Yes, the 9,14,21,30 ema,s have all been violated. The 9 hasn't confirmed its crossing of the 21 yet, and the
#Market profiles from here are all pretty thin on a weekly comparison until 644.30.
So, in my outlook, we possibly take a skinny dip to 644.30, then get a leg up.
The current phase we are in is closest to the Jan 2022 rollover, which took over 3 quarters, into Oct of 22, before it finally pivoted. Today's pattern is nothing like early 2020 or early 2025. With that being said, if 644.30 gets retested, then we can see fresh legs down to 629.88 and possibly 617.54
Far out, the money puts are a premium grab-and-burn.
Next levels to the downside will be totally calibrated and suck everyone dry of premiums, especially longer term higher premis stick with the shorter near term expiries take advantage if the ATR and especially overnight carries that paly into the opening GAPS!! The
#InitialBalance or
#OpeningRange as some call it is HUGE and reflects a majority of most days ATR .
Since Sept 25,
$SPY has most significant
#profiles at
617, 629, 644, 655, 661, and has established respectable full
#MarketProfiles at each of these levels on the way up and down over this nearly 10-month time frame.
Yeah, yeah, I know. Credit is collapsing. The Hormy Straight is Open, then Closed, then open again, and Iran's not handing over their keys.
But!!! Since the GFC, a lot has changed!! and the top institutional-level playas aint gonna be taken out like last time. Even a worst-case scenario selloff takes
$SPY from here to 617, which in relative terms is ONLY a 53-point move 8% and it won't happen in one swift move.
When taking ATR into focus, which is pushing a nearly 12-month high at 10.17, a 53-point move is simply 5 full days of pure sell-off. I simply dont see that happening. Ohh and July 4th is a lil over 3 mos away. HAPPY BDAY USA
Hard to imagine we won't be celebrating with all-time highs at hand