ALT Estimation of the biologically constrained feasibility domain. A) We show the mathematical feasibility domain given a hypothetical competition matrix with intraspecific competition coefficients αii = αjj = 1 and interspecific competition coefficients αij = αji = 0.5. Points sampled in this region of parameter space lead to both species having positive equilibrium densities. Note that, mathematically, this region extends infinitely in the positive quadrant. B) Some of these mathematically feasible points, however, may correspond to equilibrium abundances that are greater than empirically informed abundance constraints. C) Part of the the parameter space may also fall outside model-based constraints. D) The space of the mathematical feasibility domain that does not overlap with any abundance or model-based constraints gives the biologically constrained feasibility domain
Thanks to all speakers & participants who joined our hybrid #ModelUncertainty Workshop. It was full of stimulating presentations, discussions & working groups to improve model uncertainty representations.
For recordings & presentations ➡️ events.ecmwf.int/e/modelunce…#UncertaintyWS22
Day 3's livestream of our #ModelUncertainty Workshop starts at 09:30 BST. Hear from Nigel Roberts, Olaf Stiller, Lisa Bengtsson, Robert Plant, Aristofanis Tsiringakis, Oliver Nuissier & William Crawford for insightful discussions.
➡️ events.ecmwf.int/e/modelunce…#UncertaintyWS22
(1/2) Wonder why symmetric perturbations in ensembles unilaterally enhance warm conveyor belt activity but do not change ist physical properties?
Check out Moritz’ #LSDPatKIT work with @ECMWF colleagues Simon Lang and Martin Leutbecher in @rmets#QJRMSrmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.co…
It was great to welcome in-person and online participants today at our #ModelUncertainty Workshop (9–12 May).
Check the full programme and watch the livestream tomorrow from 09:30 BST for more discussion and research questions ➡️ events.ecmwf.int/e/modelunce…#UncertaintyWS22
Our #ModelUncertainty Workshop starts today from 10:15 BST, with a welcome from our Director of Research, Andy Brown.
For the full programme of speakers and sessions for 9 –12 May and to watch the livestream➡️ events.ecmwf.int/e/modelunce…#UncertaintyWS22
We're looking forward to the #ModelUncertainty Workshop on 9-12 May in Reading, UK.
We will hear about recent advances in the field, identify common interests and open research questions.
Join us for a livestream from next Monday at events.ecmwf.int/e/modelunce…#UncertaintyWS22
ALT Coefficient of variation (CV) for estimates of density, baseline detection probability and sigma, across 1-6 years of sampling data. Note that sampling for >3 years only occurred at the Kamas study area
ALT Mean ± 2 SD (colored boxes) of projected GDD and precipitation in Texas’s spring in the near future (2018–2038), mid-21st century (2040–2060), and end-21st century (2080–2100). Variability in projections are based on global warming simulations under RCP2.6 (blue box), RCP4.5 (green box), and RCP8.5 (red box) scenarios from selected 5-model ensemble (panel left) and complete 16-model ensemble (panel right)