So the key to all this is you need to install msys2 and then you need to call vcvarsall.bat and then make sure you have both MSYS_PATH_TYPE=inherit and MSYSTEM=MINGW64 set when you launch bash, and then you can build it correctly over there with the mscv compiler.
That feeling when you don't have any idea what you're doing but it might be compiling ffmpeg on windows using msys2 mingw64 and the msvc compiler.
Or it might not be (???)