kingkratus_ Nos agregadores da web (BBC News Brasil/PollingData, atualizado até 10/06), Lula lidera com ~45% contra ~41% de Flávio no 2º turno. No 1º turno também está na frente. No Twitter, agregadores recentes mostram (votos válidos): 1º turno → Lula ~45,4% | Flávio ~38,1% 2º turno → Lula ~51,4% | Flávio ~48,6% Lula tem vantagem consolidada na maioria dos modelos atuais.

Não conheço o ViésLab, mas o do PollingData está em 3,4 pontos.

🚨 THE ECONOMIC SQUEEZE: TRUMP APPROVAL HOVERS NEAR RECORD LOWS AS AMERICANS BRACE FOR SURGING GAS PRICES! 🚨 A bruising new political reality check has just hit the White House! According to a blockbuster national poll, President Donald Trump’s job approval rating remains locked near a record low, heavily pinned down by a wall of widespread voter anxiety over the domestic economy. The data reveals that a staggering majority of consumers are firmly bracing for a painful spike in fuel and energy costs heading into the summer. It’s "The Working-Class Inflation Trap" vs. "The White House Economic Narrative"! THE SYSTEMATIC BREAKDOWN THE RECORD-LOW APPROVAL RATIO: The definitive new polling data confirms that President Trump's national approval rating has failed to find traction, hovering stubbornly at a near-historic low of 38%. The numbers indicate that deep structural dissatisfaction with the country's financial trajectory is overriding standard partisan loyalty lines. THE GAS PRICE PIPELINE FEARS: Driving the negative sentiment is a wave of intense anxiety at the pump. The poll reveals that nearly 70% of all Americans firmly expect gas prices to rise significantly over the coming months. This widespread expectation of higher energy costs acts as a direct psychological anchor on consumer confidence, leaving families feeling increasingly financially insecure. THE TARIFF & TRADE COLLISION: Economists note that voter anxiety is directly tied to the administration's hyper-aggressive trade maneuvers. Between the recent 10% Section 301 tariff threats launched against Canada over forced labor enforcement and ongoing trade frictions across Europe and Mexico, voters are increasingly fearful that these protectionist "America First" barriers will trigger a severe, direct spike in everyday consumer costs. THE STARK COGNITIVE DISCONNECT: The dismal polling numbers expose a massive, glaring disconnect between the electorate's lived reality and Washington's official metrics. While White House officials are aggressively celebrating blockbuster data showing that U.S. manufacturing grew at its fastest pace in four years last month, the average American remains hyper-focused on daily cost-of-living strains. HIGH-OCTANE MIDTERM PERIL: These bruising economic perceptions are landing at the absolute worst possible time for the administration. With the critical November midterm elections rapidly approaching, the reality that a massive majority of voters feel trapped by a stagnant approval landscape and looming inflation presents opposition campaigns with an incredibly potent, ready-to-fire piece of electoral artillery. ### THE VOTER SENTIMENT METRIC "The American public is expressing a deep-seated exhaustion with persistent inflationary pressures. Even when macro-economic indicators like manufacturing growth show massive strength, if the average worker expects to pay more to fill up their tank next week, that immediate financial pain is what completely dictates their view of executive performance." — National Public Opinion & Economic Research Briefing. AS HIGH-SEASON SUMMER TRAVEL COMMENCES AND THE ENERGY PIPELINES FACE FRESH MACRO-STRATOSPHERIC PRESSURES, WILL TRUMP’S SIGANTURE INDUSTRIAL INITIATIVES REVERSE THE APPROVAL TAILSPIN, OR WILL SURGING COSTS AT THE PUMP FUEL A MASSIVE MIDTERM REBELLION AGAINST THE EXECUTIVE MANDATE IN NOVEMBER? #BreakingNews #TrumpApproval #GasPrices #InflationWatch #ConsumerConfidence #EconomicAnxiety #PollingData #CostOfLiving #AmericaFirst #2026Midter

Lula ampliou sua vantagem na corrida presidencial de 2026 e alcançou 47% das intenções de voto em um eventual segundo turno contra Flávio Bolsonaro, que aparece com 40%, segundo dados atualizados do Agregador de Pesquisas da BBC News Brasil. O levantamento, produzido em parceria com a consultoria PollingData, reúne pesquisas eleitorais nacionais registradas no Tribunal Superior Eleitoral (TSE) e divulgadas desde janeiro de 2026. O agregador considera resultados de institutos como Datafolha, Quaest, Paraná Pesquisas, AtlasIntel, MDA e Gerp para calcular uma estimativa consolidada das intenções de voto. Além da liderança no cenário de segundo turno, Lula também aparece na frente nas projeções para o primeiro turno. Flávio Bolsonaro ocupa a segunda colocação, enquanto um grupo de candidatos surge tecnicamente próximo na sequência: Ciro Gomes (PSDB), Romeu Zema (Novo), Ronaldo Caiado (PSD) e Renan Santos (Missão). Segundo a BBC News Brasil, a ferramenta não funciona como uma previsão definitiva do resultado eleitoral, mas como um retrato do momento atual da opinião pública brasileira. (247)

📉 Trump’s Job Approval Hits New Lows — Mid-May 2026 🔹 NYT/Siena Poll (May 11–15): 37% approve, 59% disapprove (net -22). Fresh second-term low among registered voters. 🔹 Reuters/Ipsos: Dips to 34% in late April/early May. 🔹 FiftyPlusOne Average: ~36–37% mid-May weighted average. 🔹 CNN Polls: Range 35–40%. 🔹 Trendline: Started ~45–47% early in second term, steadily declining. 📊 Drivers Behind Decline 🔹 Economy & Inflation — Rising cost of living, gas price spikes tied to Iran conflict. Strong disapproval on handling inflation. 🔹 Iran War — “Operation Epic Fury” fallout, unpopular foreign policy stance, oil/Strait of Hormuz disruptions. 🔹 Midterm Outlook — Democrats showing leads in generic ballot polling as dissatisfaction grows. #️⃣ #USPolitics #PollingData #TrumpApproval #Midterms2026 #Economy #IranConflict

Com o PollingData, você ganha agilidade para analisar cenários eleitorais, e segurança para tomar decisões bem fundamentadas. Tudo em um só lugar, de forma clara, estratégica e eficiente. #eleicoes2026 #pollingdata #pesquisaseleitorais2026 #analisededados

With trends suggesting Mamata Banerjee will likely lose power in West Bengal in the 2026 Assembly elections, what are her options moving forward? Will she return to national politics or remain back in state? #westbengal #mamatabanerjee #bjp #tmc #election2026 #pollingdata #electionresults

ஆம்புலன்ஸில் வந்து வாக்குப்பதிவு நேரில் சந்தித்து அமைச்சர் பாராட்டு சென்னையில் நெகிழ்ச்சி சம்பவம் | TN Election | MK Stalin | EPS | Seeman | Vijay #tnelection2026 #masubramanian #dmk #ambulance #tamilnaduassemblyelection2026 #pollingdata #ABPNADU

விஜய் ENTRY..எகிறிய ஓட்டு 2011-ஐ ஓரம் கட்டிய 2026 வரலாறு காணாத வாக்குப்பதிவு.. #tnelection2026 #tamilnaduassemblyelection2026 #pollingdata #ABPNADU

2026 Polling Summary | விஜய் ENTRY..எகிறிய ஓட்டு 2011-ஐ ஓரம் கட்டிய 2026 வரலாறு காணாத வாக்குப்பதிவு | TN Election | MK Stalin | EPS | Seeman | Vijay #tnelection2026 #tamilnaduassemblyelection2026 #pollingdata

The Farage Factor: Dissatisfaction on the Rise 📉 ​The latest polling from April 2026 is in, and it’s a tough read for Reform UK. Despite a loyal base, the broader public sentiment toward Nigel Farage’s leadership is trending firmly in the wrong direction. ​The Stats You Need to See: ​59% Dissatisfied: Almost 6 in 10 people are unhappy with his performance, a number that has been steadily climbing since mid-2025. ​29% Satisfied: His support has plateaued and is struggling to break the 30% ceiling. ​Net Rating = -30: While he’s technically beating the Prime Minister's net score, the gap between his supporters and critics is widening fast. The momentum seems to be stalling. Can Reform UK turn the tide, or has Farage reached his limit? ​#UKPolitics #NigelFarage #ReformUK #PollingData #PublicVerdict #PoliticalTrends2026

Tá começando a ficar parecido c/ do pollingdata.

📉 U.S. Public Sentiment Update (2026) New polling shows rising disapproval amid the Iran conflict: • 33% — Approval rating • 62% — Overall disapproval • 60–63% — Disapprove handling of Iran conflict Economic pressure at home tensions abroad are shaping opinion fast. 🇺🇸 Source: UMass Amherst / YouGov / Ipsos (2026) #Trump #IranConflict #USPolitics #PollingData

#Exclusive | For the first time, Trump is facing direct responsibility for an economic downturn. Unlike COVID, this time the accountability is his—and his poll numbers are already slipping: Dr. Ian Bremmer, President of Eurasia Group #NewsToday #ITTVReels #DonaldTrump #USEconomy #EconomicDownturn #TrumpAdministration #USPolitics #ApprovalRatings #PollingData #EconomicCrisis #WhiteHouse #GlobalEconomy #PoliticalAccountability #MarketUncertainty #Leadership #PolicyImpact | @sardesairajdeep @ianbremmer

🌞Good morning Canada - Sunday thoughts. The question about Conservatives ending in third place misses what's actually happening. Yes, they should be worried. No, it's not about NDP. It's about structural collapse. Every major pollster now shows the Liberals with double-digit leads: 8 (Angus Reid), 10 (Mainstreet), 11 (Abacus), 14 (Léger), 17 (Nanos), 21 (ÉKOS). That's not variance. That's consensus. The polling has moved from 'Liberals bouncing back' to 'Conservatives locked out.' The seat model is worse: LPC 245 (majority), CPC 65. That's a 79-seat swing from 2025. The Conservatives aren't fighting for government; they're fighting for relevance. Here's why it's structural, not cyclical: Poilievre can't grow. His net favourability is -13 and deteriorating. He's underwater with women (-23), over-45s, and completely collapsed in Quebec. Even in Alberta, supposed Conservative heartland, the map shows fracturing. That's not recoverable with a better communications strategy. Meanwhile, Carney has consolidated a coalition that spans regions and demographics. The 'accessible voter pool' for Conservatives has shrunk to 48 percent of the electorate. Sixty-five percent of Canada won't consider them. Third place isn't the threat. Irrelevance is. At 65 seats, you're not opposition. You're institutional wallpaper. #cdnpoli #elxn2026 #Poilievre #PollingData #Conservative #Liberal #Carney #CanadianPolitics #GovernmentCollapse

Muito bom! Não sei se é uma questão de escala por considerar os votos válidos, mas na sua projeção parece que o Flávio está um pouco mais acima de Lula do que na do PollingData. Aliás, qual modelo você está usando para essa tendência?

Mas você quer que eu coloque minha intíma probabilidade de forma tão pública assim? 😅 Vou colocar aqui as probabilidades do PollingData, das quais eu tendo a não discordar...

The polling data is in. Immigration, once a GOP weak spot, now shows Republicans with an edge over Democrats. Turns out, people don't think Dems will handle it better—they think they'll do worse. This could be a major win for Republicans. #Immigration #Politics #PollingData

A probabilidade disso ocorrer, das evidências que temos hoje, é bastante baixa, segundo o PollingData

75% Disapproval Among Black Americans – New Poll Sparks Debate A new poll shows 75% of Black Americans disapprove of President Trump’s job performance, while 15% approve. The numbers are clear. The political debate continues. 📊 Data matters. Narratives matter. The conversation is far from over. — King Media Roof LLC #BreakingNews #USPolitics #TrumpApproval #PoliticalDebate #PollingData