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📊 ドル円週足予測(2026年6月13日現在) 📈 予測値:160.79円(±1.00円) 🔮 モデル:RandomForest(週足特徴量 × 200本ツリー) 📅 直近週足終値:160.24円(2026年6月13日) 🔍 バックテスト(直近8週) MSE(平均二乗誤差):0.035 MAPE(平均絶対誤差率):0.24% ⚠️ 注意点 データ取得:Investing.comの週足終値データを使用 モデル構築:Python(scikit-learn, ランダムフォレスト)+特徴量エンジニアリング 予測期間:2026年6月13日現在のデータに基づく予測 🔗 詳細データ取得先: Investing.com USD/JPY Historical Data 📌 ご注意:本予測は研究目的であり、投資判断の参考としてご利用ください。市場の急変動や突発的なニュースには対応していません。自己責任でのご利用をお願いいたします。
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6 Best ML Libraries Top Quant Traders Use to Exploit Model Bias on Polymarket (Full Quant Stack) Most bots on Polymarket still operate as simple reactive systems - they treat public forecasts as the ultimate truth Top quant traders have moved far beyond that. Instead of relying on public models and third-party forecasts, they build meta-models that actively hunt for and exploit the systematic biases and weaknesses in those forecasts Here’s the actual list of libraries that top quants are using right now: 1. LightGBM - The Go-To Workhorse • Extremely fast gradient boosting with leaf-wise tree growth • Handles hundreds of features effortlessly (raw forecasts historical bias corrections sentiment volume) • Repo: github.com/microsoft/LightGB… 2. XGBoost - The Reliable Veteran • Classic gradient boosting with strong regularization • Excellent GPU support and best-in-class SHAP explainability • Repo: github.com/dmlc/xgboost 3. HistGradientBoosting (scikit-learn) • Powerful histogram-based boosting built directly into sklearn • Best choice for fast prototyping and experimentation • Repo: github.com/scikit-learn/scik… 4. RandomForest (also sklearn) • Solid baseline to quickly check if your features actually have signal • Repo: github.com/scikit-learn/scik… 5. TabNet • Neural network architecture designed specifically for tabular data • Great at combining text embeddings (news/tweets) with numerical features • Repo: github.com/dreamquark-ai/tab… 6. River • Best library for online/incremental learning • The model learns and adapts in real time - essential for fast-moving events • Repo: github.com/online-ml/river Recommended 2026 Stack: LightGBM (main model) XGBoost (stacking) River (online adaptation) All of these libraries work great with SHAP - so you don’t just get a probability, you actually see which model bias you’re currently profiting from Bookmark this post so you don’t lose it!
Stanford just dropped the exact linear regression math that prints millions on Polymarket weather markets 1 hour 48 minutes. free. straight from Stanford bookmark & watch - this is the most honest “how real weather models actually work” lecture ever published forget the "AI weather bot" YouTube grifters. this is the classical foundation meteoblue (swiss weather service) uses: probabilities instead of point forecasts, decades of bias correction, and why the market stays mispriced at 6¢ exactly why your decaying average MOS Kalman stack actually works. no hype, just edge then start building your own bot using post below
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Elon 的核心方法:读书 找人聊 快速迭代硬件/软件。以下是最简实操路径: 1. 读书(每天30-60分钟) •用 Feynman Technique:读完一章立刻用自己的话写总结 小实验验证。 •推荐起步书: ◦火箭/工程:《Ignition!》《Structures》 ◦AI/编程:Andrew Ng《Machine Learning Yearning》、Karpathy 视频系列 ◦通用:《Zero to One》 工具:Notion 建卡片(左边书摘,右边“今天怎么用”) 2. 找人交流(每周3次) •X/Twitter 回复技术帖,或发学习日志求反馈 •加入 Discord / Reddit(r/SpaceX、r/MachineLearning、r/rocketry) •每周至少和1人私聊30分钟(LinkedIn冷邮件也行) 3. 快速迭代(每周至少1个小循环) ← 最重要! 软件路径(最易上手): •Week 1-2:Python Kaggle 房价预测(Linear → RandomForest → Neural Net) •Week 3 :做 Telegram 机器人 或 PyTorch 猫狗分类器 •每次迭代:跑通 → 优化 → 部署 硬件路径(预算<500元): •买 Arduino / 树莓派入门套件 •项目示例: 1智能小车(避障 → 加摄像头AI) 2模型火箭 / 无人机零件设计(FreeCAD 3D打印) •原则:Build → Test → Fail → Fix,周期控制在1-7天 4. 一周模板(直接执行) •周一-三:读书 写代码 •周四:硬件组装测试 •周五:发帖求反馈 •周末:复盘失败点 规划下周 关键心态:前10次迭代几乎都会失败,没关系。Elon 的火箭也炸了很多次,重点是速度。 坚持3个月,你会把很多科班生甩在身后。
Replying to @AJamesMcCarthy
Read books, talk to people & iterate rapidly with hardware & software
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📊 ドル円週足予測(2026年6月6日現在) 📈 予測値:160.87円(±1.00円) 🔮 モデル:RandomForest(週足特徴量 × 200本ツリー) 📅 直近週足終値:160.30円(2026年6月6日) 🔍 バックテスト(直近8週) MSE(平均二乗誤差):0.035 MAPE(平均絶対誤差率):0.24% ⚠️ 注意点 データ取得:Investing.comの週足終値データを使用 モデル構築:Python(scikit-learn, ランダムフォレスト)+特徴量エンジニアリング 予測期間:2026年6月6日現在のデータに基づく予測 🔗 詳細データ取得先: Investing.com USD/JPY Historical Data 📌 ご注意:本予測は研究目的であり、投資判断の参考としてご利用ください。市場の急変動や突発的なニュースには対応していません。自己責任でのご利用をお願いいたします。
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mpy retweeted
🌳🏙️🌳 #Urban #Tree #Species Identification Based on Crown #RGB Point Clouds Using #RandomForest and PointNet ✍️ Diego Pacheco-Prado et al. 🔗 brnw.ch/21x35pf
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Check this newly published article "Asymmetric Feature Weighting for Diversity-Enhanced Random Forests" at brnw.ch/21x34O8 Authors: Ye Eun Kim, Seoung Yun Kim and Hyunjoong Kim #mdpisymmetry #ensemble #randomforest
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#HighlyCitedPaper 🏔 Optimized Random Forest Models for Rock Mass Classification in Tunnel Construction ✍️ by Bo Yang, et al. 🖇️ brnw.ch/21x31Oi 🎓 Citations: 16 👁 Views: 3233 #RandomForest #RockMassClassification
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In the demo, InfiniSynapse uses InfiniSQL as the feature factory, compares RandomForest, GBT, Logistic Regression, and ScoreCard, then launches Agent Teams to improve an explainable ScoreCard from 0.7482 AUC to 0.7756.
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📊 ドル円週足予測(2026年5月30日現在) 📈 予測値:159.96円(±1.01円) 🔮 モデル:RandomForest(週足特徴量 × 200本ツリー) 📅 直近週足終値:159.39円(2026年5月30日) 🔍 バックテスト(直近8週) MSE(平均二乗誤差):0.036 MAPE(平均絶対誤差率):0.24% ⚠️ 注意点 データ取得:Investing.comの週足終値データを使用 モデル構築:Python(scikit-learn, ランダムフォレスト)+特徴量エンジニアリング 予測期間:2026年5月30日現在のデータに基づく予測 🔗 詳細データ取得先: Investing.com USD/JPY Historical Data 📌 ご注意:本予測は研究目的であり、投資判断の参考としてご利用ください。市場の急変動や突発的なニュースには対応していません。自己責任でのご利用をお願いいたします。
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1/4 Systemic design comes from heavy engineering. At AO TVSZ, I optimized 140 industrial robots with BCG, cutting cycles by 11%, and built RandomForest ML models for failure prediction. In game dev, this means custom telemetry & heatmaps. No "intuition" – just bottlenecks.
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So, I trained a Human Activity Recognition Model as I was bored. I used three different algorithms; RandomForest, SVC and XGBoost. I originally thought SVC would train it best cause i remember reading somewhere that SVC is best for HAR but it turns out XGBoost did better for me.
thank God for today ... it was a good day.
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🧠 𝐓𝐨𝐩 𝟐𝟓 𝐂𝐥𝐚𝐬𝐬𝐢𝐟𝐢𝐜𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐈𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐫𝐯𝐢𝐞𝐰 𝐐𝐮𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬 (𝐰𝐢𝐭𝐡 𝐃𝐞𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐥𝐞𝐝 𝐀𝐧𝐬𝐰𝐞𝐫𝐬) by AIML.com 📖 Link: aiml.com/top-25-classificati… Everyone is prepping for LLM interviews. Meanwhile, the question that's tanking candidates across fintech, big tech, and applied ML roles is: "𝘠𝘰𝘶𝘳 𝘮𝘰𝘥𝘦𝘭 𝘩𝘢𝘴 95% 𝘢𝘤𝘤𝘶𝘳𝘢𝘤𝘺 𝘰𝘯 𝘢 𝘧𝘳𝘢𝘶𝘥 𝘥𝘢𝘵𝘢𝘴𝘦𝘵 𝘸𝘩𝘦𝘳𝘦 0.5% 𝘰𝘧 𝘵𝘳𝘢𝘯𝘴𝘢𝘤𝘵𝘪𝘰𝘯𝘴 𝘢𝘳𝘦 𝘧𝘳𝘢𝘶𝘥𝘶𝘭𝘦𝘯𝘵. 𝘐𝘴 𝘵𝘩𝘪𝘴 𝘢 𝘨𝘰𝘰𝘥 𝘮𝘰𝘥𝘦𝘭?" If you flinched, you are not alone. 𝐂𝐥𝐚𝐬𝐬𝐢𝐟𝐢𝐜𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 is still the most interviewed topic in machine learning, and the questions are getting sharper, not easier. 📖 What's inside this compilation: 👉 Classification fundamentals 👉 Evaluation metrics: confusion matrix, ROC curves 👉 Handling imbalanced data 👉 Classfication algorithms 👉 Model training and hyperparameter tunign 💬 Interview tip: More candidates fail classification rounds on evaluation than on algorithms. "What's wrong with accuracy?" "ROC-AUC or precision-recall?" "Your data is 99:1 imbalanced - now what?" The first third of this list is dedicated to exactly these questions before touching a single algorithm. That's where the easy gains live. 🔔 Follow @OfficialAIML for more interview prep resources ❤️ Like and Share the knowledge for wider reach - this is a free resource which can empower millions! -- 🚀 Preparing for AI / ML interviews? Join AIML.com, the world's largest repository of ML interview questions and quizzes #AIMLCom #AIInterview #AIJobs #MLJobs #MLCareers #MachineLearning #Classification #LogisticRegression #RandomForest #XGBoost #SVM #MLInterview #DataScience #AICareers
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we tested 41 ML models for BTC price prediction. RandomForest was the ONLY model that survived forward testing (15.38% return, 8.68 Sharpe). BaggingClassifier showed 121% in backtest but lost money live. our system uses RF-style multi-indicator confirmation. robustness > flashy backtests. commutatio.ai
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Pythonに出会ってRandomForestを試した。回収率70%台。改善はしたがまだ赤字だ。「特徴量を増やせば精度が上がる」という感覚だけは掴んだ。
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