Mar 27
Followers — quick update on the “big pattern change” everyone was hyping. Let’s just call it what it is: Nothingburger!!!! Model trends continue to come in LOWER and LOWER for #SoCal precipitation, it is there is anything at all! Below is my AI wx discussion with some thoughts at the end of this discussion
Discussion —
Over the past several runs, we’ve seen a consistent signal:
→ QPF totals trending down
→ Trough amplitude weakening
→ Energy shearing east instead of digging
→ Ridge resistance still present over the Eastern Pacific
In other words… the system is losing its teeth as we get closer in time. In fact, I think we are going from one warm pattern to another. I think we have seen this more often than not in #California this season. It is just not our winter folks!!
The original idea of a clean undercut of the ridge with a sustained moisture tap has not materialized. Instead, we’re looking at a more progressive, positively tilted, lower-amplitude trough that struggles to overcome the background ridge states and go up and over #California.
Translation:
This is not a high-impact storm cycle for #SoCal at all!
Before are my AI Models images for temps, precp and meteograms....And look — I said this days ago..... I wasn’t impressed with the setup earlier this week. The signal just wasn’t there for a meaningful precipitation event in #socal, and it is getting worse every run.
And for that take?
I got called:
→ “Hostile”
→ “Doesn’t know what he’s talking about”
→ “Negative”
The hits keep on coming....LOL. Bring them on!!!!
Now here we are folks, watching the exact trend I talked about play out in real time, and I will still get shamed. Keep it coming folks!!!! Most of the talking weather heads on this medium chase long-range fantasy runs from deterministic GFS/EU1 models. They don't watch trend evolution, use ensemble means, AI ENS runs, and pay attention to how the pattern behaves as it compresses in time. Personally, I have no idea what a lot of them look at, but here we are, and I am the bad guy!
What’s actually happening synoptically:
→ The ridge never fully breaks down — it gets nudged, not displaced
→ The upper low weakens as it approaches the coast
→ Jet support is marginal and poorly aligned
→ Moisture transport is limited — no real atmospheric river connection of any sort.
→ Result: light, scattered precip at best for #SoCal, and even that is dwindling.
Northern/Central California? Sure — they’ll do better.
But down in #socal - This is looking more like a glorified marine layer enhancement event with some light rain mixed in...maybe. Even the light rain part is TBD.
Mountains still getting crushed
Nothing has changed here — in fact, it’s getting worse.
We’re still running:
→ Elevated snow levels
→ Warm overnight lows
→ Poor refreeze conditions
Resorts are hanging on by a thread trying to make it to Easter… but that’s looking shaky.
From what I’m hearing:
→ Deer Valley Resort — closing Sunday (yep… that was my trip 😑)
→ Park City Mountain Resort — likely next domino to fall
→ Widespread coverage issues across the Wasatch and Sierra, and Rockies. Steamboat is closing or is closed now.
→ Dirt showing up everywhere
Depressing, but that is where we are with this winter pattern. Never seen such sustained heat/warmth for such a duration like this season! It feels like mid-to-late April conditions… if not worse.
I was set to head out Sunday, but with closures accelerating and finalized, that plan is done. DOA!
For those of you that have asked me if the pending snow for next week in NorCal and the Sierra and Utah, will make a difference in the snow pack, the answer is no. If you look at the resorts, in Utah now, they are getting nuked, as I have discussed with you how much of the snow pack they are losing with 60 degrees per day. Now, Alta and Snowbird, due to their location and elevation usually are able to sustain their snow pack the longest. They might benefit, but the other resorts by this time next week will probably close. Snow Basin is closed, Deer Valley is closed. Park City is rumored to be closed on Sunday. In any case, Alta and Snowbird will probably be the only ones open before they get snow next week. TBD at this point.
As for #california, I have posted the Meteograms for snow in Mammoth thru the extended. Not much going on folks, so again, that is where we are. I will update this on Sunday night and see if the models have changed, but frankly based on the trends and the atmospheric pattern out west this season, every day gets drier and warmer next week. Hence why I declared winter was over 2 weeks ago.
More on Sunday and if you have questions of any sort, let me know.
Stay cool!
#SoCalWeather #CaliforniaWeather #WestCoastWeather #ENSO #ElNino #SierraNevada #Wasatch #WeatherModels #Meteorology #SkiSeason #SpringPattern #cawx
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22 Apr 2022
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