Solid analysis, But it's missing the interim rungs on the escalation ladder I expect we're already seeing to kick off the summer 2026 campaign.
It's very accurate in the part about
#Putin taking the long range drone strike blows, while building up the Rosgvardia and BARS reservist GAZ pickup truck air defense units to shoot more Ukrainian drones down. Some of these units around Moscow Oblast reportedly already have Chinese anti-drone lasers in combat use.
And that what Putin appears to be waiting for is his
#Iranian allies second front to start to bite his adversaries in the Collective West. For the ongoing
#StraitsofHormuz standoff to drain U.S. and especially Western EUropean oil, gas and fertilizer stocks by autumn.
The Constanta Ukrainian sea drone explosion was a hint of Russian mirror-imaging British salami-slicing 'boil the frog' escalation tactics including flying Ukrainian drones through (or launching them from) the Baltic states and/or above Finnish waters northwest of St Petersburg.
Russia has demonstrated that it's capable of capturing and reprogramming UAF USVs returning to
@NATO sender. Unlike taking the occasional electronic warfare-downed intact
#Ukrainian aerial drone and creating a nuisance by flying it in the direction of Poland or Romania, Ukrainian sea drones can cause a lot of problems for
#NATO's Black Sea ports (or even make a 'T2 Arnie reprogrammed T800' cameo explosive appearance in the Baltic states own ports). This is Russian salami-slicing of NATO's vaunted Art V showing it is not the inviolate, invincibility shield it is touted as. It's primarily a message to London that its tactics are not consequence and risk-free.
Also we would probably see more emergency medevac flights out of
#Ręszów aggressive targeting of drone warfare contractors and British/French (disavowed NATO combatant) advisors on the ground inside Ukraine, particularly in and around Odessa. Not all of which will be done via Gerans flying at hotels, some on a much more direct and personal basis by the pro-Russian underground.
CC:
@STANISKRAPIVNIK