BREAKING: A 24-year-old former OpenAI researcher just became one of the largest hedge fund managers on Wall Street.
He has ZERO professional investing experience.
Yet he's up 270% this year.
And he is about to make ONE very big bet...
He left OpenAI's Superalignment team in 2024, raised $225 million from Nat Friedman, Daniel Gross, and the Collison brothers, and launched Situational Awareness LP.
He had never managed money professionally.
His entire thesis came from a 165-page essay arguing AI was bottlenecked by physical limits, not algorithms.
Today his fund manages over $20 billion. Same size range as Bill Ackman's Pershing Square and Dan Loeb's Third Point.
The Wall Street Journal reported it Monday:
The fund is up 270% after fees in 2026 through May, and up more than 1,000% since launch less than two years ago.
Jane Street, one of the most selective trading firms on earth, just became an investor.
The interesting part is what he's shorting.
In his Q1 2026 13F filing, Situational Awareness disclosed $8.46 billion in notional put options against the AI chip stocks every retail investor in America is buying.
$1.6 billion in puts against Nvidia.
$2 billion in puts against the VanEck Semiconductor ETF.
Plus put positions on Broadcom, Oracle, AMD, Taiwan Semiconductor, Micron, ASML, Intel, and Corning.
Read that again.
The most successful AI investor on Wall Street, a guy who actually worked inside OpenAI, is paying billions to bet against the exact stocks retail piled into this year.
And his trade is already paying.
Last Friday, June 5th, the AI chip sector lost roughly $1 trillion in market value in a single session.
Marvell dropped 17%. AMD dropped 11%. Nvidia dropped 6%.
Aschenbrenner's puts gained value on every single one of those drops.
His thesis, in plain language:
AI's real bottleneck isn't model quality.
It's power, compute, and memory. The companies that win are the ones selling the inputs AI absolutely needs.
The companies at risk are the ones whose entire valuation assumes infinite demand from buyers who are themselves losing money.
So he went long the inputs.
And he hedged the assemblers.
This is the difference retail investors almost never see.
Retail picks a narrative and rides it forever.
Aschenbrenner picks a thesis and structures around it.
Same belief in AI. Completely different position.
Automated, rules-based strategies that don't marry a narrative.
That rebalance when the math changes. That don't care if Nvidia is at all-time highs or down 6% on a Friday.
That's the approach Surmount was built around.
When the smartest insider in AI is hedging the trade everyone else is doubling down on, the right move isn't to guess which side wins.
It's to run a system that doesn't have to: