8 May 2025
The Terminal Price is sitting at $155K โ a level that has historically marked all major Bitcoin tops ๐จ
But howโs it calculated?
It starts with Transferred Price:
โ Sum of Coin Days Destroyed รท Supply ร Time
โ Then multiplied by 21M โ the total BTC supply
This reverse supply adjustment normalises historical behavior to a fully mined supply, creating a kind of โterminalโ valuation line that reflects long-term market maturity ๐
To make this more actionable, Iโve built a Terminal Price Risk Metric. A tool designed to highlight when price is stretched above or below this fair value.
โ High risk = overheated market, often near cycle tops
โ Low risk = undervalued zones, typically near bottoms
โ Neutral = price is in balance with long-term behavior
Right now? Weโre back in neutral territory โ๏ธ not overheated, not undervaluedโฆ but the next big move could be setting up.
#Bitcoin #OnChainAnalysis #Crypto #BTC #TerminalPrice
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#41 Min(terminalPrice,deltaTop) reaches 80%/90%/100%
now at 53.35%
author:
@willywoo @_Checkmatey_ @Kenoshaking
Possibly the second most popular indicator for predicting market tops.
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16 Jan 2025
These 30 critical indicators are your arsenal to spot potential Bitcoin bull market peaks and maximize your profits. ๐๐ฐ
Follow for daily updates on these crucial metrics. #Bitcoin #Crypto #BullMarket #Trading
17-01-2025
1. Ahr999 Index: 1.42 (>= 4) #Ahr999
2. Pi Cycle Top Indicator: 100313.0 (>= 138651) #PiCycleTop
3. Puell Multiple: 1.15 (>= 2.2) #PuellMultiple
4. Bitcoin Rainbow Chart: 3 (>= 5) #RainbowChart
5. Days of ETF Net Outflows: 1 (>= 10) #ETF
6. ETF-to-BTC Ratio: 5.58% (<= 3.5%) #ETF500
7. 2-Year MA Multiplier: 100313 (>= 245473) #2YearMA
8. MVRV Z-Score: 2.82 (>= 5) #MVRVZScore
9. Bitcoin Bubble Index: 13.48 (>= 80) #BubbleIndex
10. MicroStrategy's Avg Bitcoin Cost: 58219 (155655) #MicroStrategy
11. USDT Flexible Savings: 10.36% (>= 29%) #USDT
12. RSI - 22 Day: 56.024 (>= 80) #RSI
13. Altcoin Season Index: 50.00 (>= 75) #AltcoinSeason
14. Bitcoin Dominance: 56.20% (>= 65%) #BitcoinDominance
15. Bitcoin Long Term Holder Supply: 14.52M (<= 13.5M) #LTH
16. Bitcoin Short Term Holder Supply: 26.69% (>= 30%) #STH
17. Bitcoin Reserve Risk: 0.0027 (>= 0.005) #ReserveRisk
18. Mayer Multiple: 1.36 (>= 2.2) #MayerMultiple
19. CBBI (Crypto Bitcoin Bull Run Index): 79 (>= 90) #Crypto #CBBI
20. Bitcoin Trend Indicator: 6.76 (>= 7) #TrendIndicator
21. Bitcoin 4-Year Moving Average: 2.5 (>= 3.5) #4YMA
22. Bitcoin Macro Oscillator (BMO): 0.89 (>= 1.4) #BMO
23. Bitcoin RHODL Ratio: 6845 (>= 10000) #RHODL
24. NUPL (Net Unrealized Profit/Loss): 58.08% (>= 70%) #NUPL
25. 3-Month Annualized Ratio: 16.02% (>= 30%) #Crypto
26. Bitcoin MVRV Ratio: 2.39 (>= 3) #Bitcoin #MVRV
27. Ahr999x Top Escape Indicator: 2.14 (<= 0.45) #Ahr999x
28. Bitcoin Terminal Price: 101500 (187702) #TerminalPrice
29. The Golden Ratio Multiplier: 101500 (135522) #GoldenRatio
30. Smithson's Forecast: 99902.6 (175k-230k)
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ๆถ้ด็ซๅจๆไปฌ่ฟไธ่พน๏ผ
Piๆๆ ไป131576ๆถจๅฐ134875๏ผไนๆๅณ็ไธค็บฟ็ธไบค็ไปทๆ ผๆฏ13.4ไธ้ซ
Min(DeltaTop,TerminalPrice)ไป186033ๆถจๅฐ190834
ๅฆๆไฝ ๅจไธไธ่ฝฎ็ๅธๅฌไปไธคไธช็ฅๅฅๆๆ ๏ผ้ฃไนไฝ ๅฏไปฅๅฎๅ
จ้้กถใไนๆๅณ็่ฟไธ่ฝฎ็้กถไธ19ไธ้ๅคฉๆนๅค่ฐญใ้็ๆถ้ดๆจ็งป๏ผไปทๆ ผไผๆด้ซใ
PSๆ่ขญ่
ไน่ฎธไธ็่งฃ๏ผไธๆๆดๆฐๆๆ
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็ไธๅพ๏ผๆฏไธ่ฝฎ็้กถ้ฝ่ตท็ ็ขฐๅฐไบ terminalPriceๅdeltaTop็่พๅฐๅผ๏ผ12ๆ14ๆฅๅฝๅไธบ182471๏ผๅณๆญคๆๆ ่ฏดๆBTCไปทๆ ผๅบ่ฏฅ่พพๅฐ18ไธ๏ผ
ๆๆธ้กถๆธ
ๅไธญๅฎไน๏ผ่งฆ่พพterminalPriceๆdeltaTop็80%๏ผ90%๏ผ100%,ๅฝๅ0.5571 ๏ผไธ่ฟๅๅงใ
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