Mid-January Reality Check Let me start with a reality check. For those who’ve been following since November's outlook, none of this should be surprising weather wise. I’ve been very clear about the SSW risk, Polar Vortex behavior, and why winter was likely to stay anchored back East, while the West dealt with longer pauses between storm cycles, that produce huge Atmospheric Rivers. That’s not hindsight, it’s merely pattern recognition The Polar Vortex has been the dominant driver this winter. When the PV is displaced and interacting with high-latitude blocking, it naturally locks colder, stormier conditions east of the Rockies while the West gets stuck under a ridge. That setup doesn’t flip overnight, and it often lasts longer than people want to hear. I responded to my followers this weekend that it could be another 30 days, and got shamed for say that And this is where expectations need to be reset. West Coast / California: Patience Required Out West, especially across California, we remain in a dry and anomalously warm pattern. A stubborn ridge along the West Coast and eastern Pacific continues to suppress the Pacific jet and force energy north. Over the next 7–10 days: • Temps running 5–15°F above normal • Mild nights, warm afternoons • Elevated snow levels in the Sierra • Periodic offshore flow → wind and low RH • Storm door largely shut unless the ridge weakens sooner than expected This isn’t “winter failing.” This is the downside of a PV-dominated season for the West. As long as the vortex keeps reinforcing cold back East, it’s hard for the Pacific jet to undercut the ridge and deliver a sustained active pattern. It may take weeks, sometimes months, not days, before California transitions back toward a more active climatological setup. Back East / Northeast: Winter Has the Upper Hand: Meanwhile, back East, winter has had a much firmer grip. The Polar Vortex remains organized and periodically displaced, keeping cold air readily available and preventing quick pattern resets. Next 10 days: • Major PV happening this week back east • Arctic intrusions that linger for the next 2 weeks. • Major Snow opportunities increase with cold already in place from the Mid-Atlantic, to New England. What folks don't know is the major Greenland blocking slows the flow, making this a meridional pattern, not a fast-moving one or zonal. I have talked about this over and over again. That’s why cold hangs around and snow threats don’t need perfect alignment to matter. The PV isn’t collapsing or doing anything dramatic — it’s simply positioned in a way that favors the East, and has for most of this winter. A Quick Personal Note I’ll be honest — the hate DMs and derogatory messages have left a bad taste in my mouth lately with this platform. You have to love humanity. I don’t do these discussions for clicks, engagement, or validation. I do them to inform, to explain and educate why the atmosphere is behaving the way it is — even when that message isn’t what people want to hear. Weather doesn’t care about narratives, hype, or wish-casting. And I’m not here to reinforce your echo chambers. If you’re only looking for someone to agree with you, or to promise outcomes that the pattern simply doesn’t support, you’re free to unfollow me. No hard feelings. Moving forward, the bottom line is this winter remains lopsided: • West: Warm, dry, ridge-controlled — this has caused severe issues with the snow back our west, which I have discussed below. • East: Cold, PV-driven, higher snow potential The next 10 days favor status quo. The real question is when the Polar Vortex relaxes enough to allow the ridge out West to finally eject and the Pacific jet to re-engage. Until then — winter stays back East. Time will tell. I usually post models and such, but I don't have much time today to go into them, plus I am burnt out looking for a pattern change over the weekend. It is the same pattern for the last 3 weeks and will be for the foreseeable future. For now, until I see something really changing in the medium range worth showing you, I wont be posting that much. Do your rain dances out west! #socal #Weather #WinterWeather #PolarVortex #SSW #PatternRecognition #CaliforniaWeather #WestCoastWeather #NortheastWeather #Snow #ClimatePatterns #Meteorology #california #NYwx #NJwx #cawx

🌊 West Coast Pattern Shift (Next Week) Followers - Wanted to post a quick update discussion. Below are my AI thoughts for the pattern change next week, as the cold temps back east will flip to the west coast. Below is a timeline to follow, as of today. Again, this is not a forecast, just a climate atmospheric trend for a pattern change next week. I discussed this last month how the pattern would change for the west coast, in the middle of November....and here we are - x.com/realwxforecast/status/… For now, warm, dry and windy off and on in #SoCal, but the #PNW and NorCal are getting rain and very high mountain snow. Early Week (Mon–Tue): Upper-Level Ridge: Strong ridge at 500 mb anchored off the West Coast, keeping warm, dry conditions from SoCal to the Pacific Northwest this weekend thru next week. Surface Flow: Offshore/weak onshore winds maintain low humidity and clear skies, with coastal highs 65–75°F and inland highs 75–85°F in #SoCal Midweek Transition (Wed–Thu): Shortwave Approach: Weak 500 mb trough digs southward from the Pacific Northwest, increasing along the West Coast. Moisture Return: Precipitable water rises to 1.0–1.5 inches, especially over central and southern California, signaling first chance for showers. Temperature Shift: Daytime highs cool 5–10°F due to clouds and reduced solar isolation. Late Week Wet Period (Fri–Sat): Trough Amplification: The trough deepens offshore, enhancing upper-level divergence over the West Coast. Surface Features: A coastal low / weak front draws subtropical moisture into California, Oregon, and Washington. Instability & Convection: CAPE 200–400 J/kg in valleys and foothills → scattered showers & isolated thunderstorms possible. Dynamics: Q-vector convergence and diffluence aloft support lift and precipitation. PNA & NAO: PNA slightly positive, supporting West Coast troughing; NAO neutral, so no major blocking. MJO Influence: Phases 4–5 enhance subtropical moisture transport → wet anomalies along the coast. Impacts Across the West Coast: California: Wettest Friday–Saturday, scattered thunderstorms in foothills. Oregon & Washington: Light showers late week; increased cloudiness. Temperature Drop: 5–15°F cooler by Friday. Travel / Outdoor: Plan for scattered showers and gusty winds late week, especially near coastal mountains. This gives a complete technical picture, from ridge-dominated dry conditions early week to trough-driven wet and unstable conditions late week. So, this is the technical version, take a look at let me know. I have posted the following images: - PNA index by Euro AI - Looks flat for negative for the next 14 days - SST - Look at the Gulf of Alaska, it is starting to get cooler. This is good news for a less blocking in #California - Anomalous temps for the US for the next 2 weeks. Notice the blue on the west coast which is below average and warm from the midwest to the east coast. Euro AI Rain totals thru the 20th. Again, this is subject to change. So, what does it mean? ✅ Takeaway for California Early week: dry, warm, and stable. Midweek: first signs of showers; cooler. Late week: most unsettled period — wet, cooler, some thunderstorms possible, and mountain snow. Now some folks are saying this is just like 1997, which was an El Nino year, but I would have to disagree with them. More on that later this week. My discussion from Monday is re-posted, with some more thoughts. Enjoy.....More later! #LARain #CAwx #socal #California