The peace process needs continuity and coherence
Armenia’s parliamentary elections have produced their outcome. The key point is that the leadership which agreed the peace agenda with Azerbaijan remains in power. That continuity matters for keeping the process on track.
The peace process between Azerbaijan and Armenia is not a collection of isolated gestures, but a sequenced agenda. One of its elements is a referendum on a new Armenian constitution that would no longer contain territorial claims against Azerbaijan.
At present, Armenia’s ruling party does not have enough seats in parliament to carry out the procedural steps needed to call a referendum. But that does not mean a referendum is impossible.
The adoption of an Armenian constitution without territorial claims remains the only obstacle to a peace agreement. It is an obstacle that must be overcome.
How long could this take?
That depends on the Armenian government. Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan has said that a new constitution should bring the so-called “Karabakh movement” to an end.
Once the procedural issues are settled, Armenia’s new government will have to define its position on the peace agenda agreed last year, an agenda that follows a clear sequence.
Azerbaijan has approached the agreements reached with responsibility. During Armenia’s election campaign, it showed maximum restraint and continued to implement steps under the peace agenda in the normal course.
Unfortunately, as soon as the results of the Armenian elections became clear, a number of European politicians, journalists and experts began producing articles and giving interviews claiming that a referendum was impossible and lecturing Azerbaijan that it should sign a peace agreement without one. Some even went so far as to use the word “should” in their articles. The arrogance is striking, and it will not be forgotten!!!
It is worth recalling that the peace process between Azerbaijan and Armenia is BILATERAL!!! Those who wish to offer advice in the language of obligation can keep it to themselves. At the very least, Baku does not need such advice.
We have already been through this in 2021-2024. And where are those so-called advisers now, the ones who wanted to lecture us on what to do and how to do it?
There is no need to repeat the mistakes of the recent past.
Equally dangerous are the calls by some particularly overexcited commentators to put pressure on Azerbaijan and President Ilham Aliyev. How dare they assume that pressure on Azerbaijan, or on President Aliyev personally, would work? Experience has shown the opposite. Azerbaijan does not bend under pressure, Aliyev certainly does not, and those who try usually end up strengthening the very position they hoped to weaken.
External pressure could also undermine the atmosphere in the bilateral negotiating format, a format that has already delivered results which are now a regular feature of the news cycle.
My advice to the so-called advisers is simple: stay out of it.
Many of these “advisers” write in their articles and say in their interviews that there is now a window of opportunity, and that it must be seized. What these short-sighted people fail to understand is that this window is opened by Azerbaijan and Armenia themselves, and how long it remains open depends first and foremost on Baku and Yerevan.
The peace process does not depend on the EU, the US, Russia or Iran. These actors can either help the process or try to obstruct it. But if Baku and Yerevan have agreed on something within the peace agenda, obstruction by any outside country will not produce results. Countries that say they support the peace process should help implement the agreed and sequenced steps, and nothing more.
The results of the elections in Armenia have created a challenge for the peace process. That challenge can be overcome only through negotiations between Azerbaijan and Armenia and through the implementation of all sequenced steps, including a referendum on Armenia’s constitution.
The point is simple: peace will not come through pressure or lectures. This opportunity was created by Baku and Yerevan, and it is for them to preserve it. Those who really support peace should help where they can, and stay aside where they cannot. Otherwise, Azerbaijan can also start lecturing them on everything they got wrong in the past.
Farhad Mammadov
Director, CSSC