I can, but not shortly, because it's a bit complex 🤯
Still, here is an attempt at a TLDR:
If Vitality wins:
All other teams lose points due to devaluation, so a large portion of the points that Falcons seemingly lose is due to devaluation because Vitality can't gain points as the top ranked team in the base model.
If Falcons wins:
Business as usual, forecast is mainly the direct effect on only Falcons and Vitality
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If you want the full explanation here is an essay for you:
Here's the VRS forecast we talk about:
Now let's look at the current standing before the match, but an extended version of the standing:
In this table you can see how a teams VRS points consist of "Start rank" which is points from the base VRS model and "H2H adjustment" which is kind of "Sum of ELO" from all matches played in the past 6 months.
In VRS the no 1 ranked team will get 2000 points of Start rank and teams below will have gradually less.
Thats because its really an average rating converted to points and all other teams points are calculated as their rating divided by the no 1 teams rating and then relative to the 2000 points of the no 1 team.
Anyways, 2000 points is the fixed max points for the number 1 team.
And maybe you see where we are getting at now.. (slowly I know.. sorry)
Vitality is already the no 1 ranked team in the base model. So what happens when they win the match?
Their rating will go up but their "Start rank" points can't increase and will still be 2000.
And what about the losing team (and all other teams!!)?
Their rating stays the same but is now divided against a larger rating, so all other teams points will go down.
The "strange" VRS forecast you are seeing is due to a Vitality win as the exception will not behaving the normal way because they are already the no 1 ranked team in the base VRS model.
Let me show the new standing if Vitality wins versus Falcons:
You can see how Vitality is still at 2000 points from the base model but now -1 point overall.
Their H2H adjust actually got worse from winning, and that's another mystery which I have explained before in depth. But the short explanation of that is that while their win against Falcons will give them 11 points in H2H adjustment from that match in isolation, then the win will result in them getting considered a little more favorite when the H2H adjustment of all their past matches are recalculated resulting in the overall H2H adjustment going from -15 to -16 even with the 11 from the win.
As for Falcons losing -40 seemingly, they only really lose the -11 points from the H2H adjusment. The remaining lost points is due to the complex effects of their Start rank points getting decreasing as explained above (1901->1866= -35).
With now less start ranking it will affect the recalculation of all past matches and the overall effect is that on top of the -11 points in H2H adjustment from losing the game, they will lose another 29 points overall from devalution of their start rank.
Notice how all other teams in the ranking also seemingly lose a lot of points if Vitality wins!
FURIA = -32, Spirit = -28, etc..
I think I'll stop here.. but that's why it looks so strange and unintuitive 🤯