T 26-132 Modi extracting the price for the defeat, in 2 years opposition is in total disarray
When on 4th June 2024, BJP won 240 seats and NDA 292, verses the expectation of 400 paar, many thought that what we would get in Modi 3.0 is a diluted and compromised govt, something that India saw during Manmohan era of 2004-2014. But two years into Modi 3.0, India has woken up to the new reality of a minority govt turning itself slowly into a govt with 2/3rds majority. Nobody in their wildest dreams would have imagined this:
TMC MPs, aligning with BJP, DMK-Cong ugly divorce and DMK turning friendly to BJP
The state elections of 2026 have acted as a turning point in the way things went. BJP won Bengal, defeated mighty Mamata and TMC and that changed the perceptions for ever. Not just that, it also retained Assam for the record 3rd term with an increased mandate. NDA won the Pondicherry for the 2nd straight term. So, BJP's performance was picture perfect in all the states where they had stake. So, the ripple effect was bound to be felt all over. But why are these parties breaking?
BJP has a single point agenda of doing delimitation in a way that they believe is right
If 2016 was the year of demonetization done covertly, 2026 is the year of delimitation that is being done overtly. The bill was tabled in the previous session of Parliament. The bill proposes to increase the parliamentary seats to 800 plus from the present 543. Rather than taking population as a yardstick, which might be seen unfair to southern states which were more disciplined in controlling population, govt took the approach of increasing the representation by 50% for each state. But opposition sees red in that also. For example, a knowledgeable MP like Dr. Shashi Tharoor gives a faulty analogy that a 50% increase in UP would take the total seats from 80 to 120 but the same 50% increase for a state like Kerala will take the total from 20 to 30. Then the gap between Kerala and UP would go up from 60 at present to 90, which he calls unfair.
What Congress and many other opposition parties are missing here is, neither the geographical area of these states are same, nor the population is same as on 1950 when these constituencies were created. If the base itself is unequal, how can the subsequent revisions be equal? This is nothing but politics. Congress wants to keep its minority vote bank in mind while doing delimitation while BJP wants its majority vote bank in mind. So more than anything else, this is a clash of ideologies.
Modi got ruthless when the bill failed in Loksabha
The delimitation bill got just 298 votes while the required 2/3rd majority was 360. That leaves NDA short of 62 members that it needs to fill. In Rajyasabha also NDA needs 162 votes for it to get passed and as of now NDA has 150. So, it just needs 12 more votes. If govt manages in Lok Sabha then getting it passed in Rajya sabha is not going to be difficult. It was the result of 2024 that was culprit. So, Modi went into ruthless mode of managing numbers.
First thing he did was managed to get 20 out of 28 TMC MPs to revolt and they merged into a unknown party called NCPI to avoid any legal complications. This NCPI declared unconditional support to NDA. So, 298 became 318 now. Next Modi's trusted man Eknath Shinde did his magic. Uddhav Thackery's Shiv sena is breaking up for 2nd time in 3 years. 6 out of his 9 MPs have decided to merge with Shiv sena and that takes the total to 325. Then in Tamil Nadu, Modi sent friendly overtures to DMK. DMK is out of power and needs money. Modi can give that provided its 22 MPs support delimitation bill. If that happens then the numbers will go to 347. Then there are some minor parties like YSRCP, Akali Dal etc which if they side with NDA or abstain, the majority figure can be brought down and the bill might get passed.
Govt is saying that the bill will be tabled in monsoon session of Parliament that starts in mid July. That leaves govt with just 1 month time. So, expect a lot of political activity starting from next week. BJP and Modi have turned unstoppable and ruthless now. Once the 2026 delimitation is achieved then its a cakewalk for BJP going into 2029. They just have to manage a tough UP election in 2027.