The world just paid $2 trillion for a rocket company that lost $4.9 billion last year. And the rockets are not why it lost the money. They are the only part making any. SpaceX went public Friday, the largest IPO in history. Up 19%, a $2 trillion valuation, Elon Musk the first trillionaire. Then you open the filing. Three businesses sit inside it. Starlink, the satellites, brought in $11.4 billion, 61% of all revenue, and $4.4 billion in profit. It is the only piece that earns a dollar. The rockets that land themselves run a small loss reinvesting in Starship. And the AI arm, Grok plus the app once called Twitter, folded in this February, lost $6.4 billion in a single year on $12.7 billion of spending. Read that again. The satellites pay for everything. The AI loses more than the satellites make. And the AI is the part the market fell in love with. It gets bolder. The prospectus claims a total market of $28.5 trillion, the largest any company has ever put in a filing. Larger than the GDP of the United States. That is the number underwriting a $2 trillion price tag built on a division bleeding $6 billion a year. Now the structure. About 4% of the company trades. That sliver sets the price for all of it. Musk is locked up for 366 days and holds roughly 80% of the votes. The public bought a company they cannot steer, priced on the one segment losing the most. This is the whole year in one ticker. The profit is satellites. The story is AI. The market bought the story. The rockets were never the risk. The risk is a $2 trillion price resting on the one bet that has yet to make a cent.

Pack it up boys

The 20 craziest investing facts ever. "Anything is possible on the stock market. Even the opposite." – André Kostolany 1. Since 1916, the Dow has made new all-time highs on less than 5% of all days. Over that same span it's up almost 300,000%, dividends included. You are underwater 95% of the time. The less you look, the better off you are. 2. The Dow has compounded at less than 4 basis points a day since 1970. That tiny daily drip became a 30,000% gain. $1,000 turned into $300,000. Compounding is magic. 3. The Dow has been positive on just 52% of all days. The average up day is 0.73%. The average down day is -0.76%. A coin flip, tilted barely in your favor. 4. The Dow has spent more time 40% or more below its highs than within 2% of them. 20.6% of days versus 18.4%. No pain, no gain. 5. The Dow gained 38 points in the entire decade of the 1970s. Ten years. Thirty-eight points. 6. The Dow and the S&P 500 have a rolling one-year correlation of 0.95 since 1970. They're the same thing. Stop arguing about it. 7. At the 2009 low, US stocks were back to where they stood in 1996. Stocks for the long run. The very long run. 8. At the 2009 low, Japanese stocks were back to where they stood in 1980. A 29-year round trip to nowhere. 9. US one-month Treasury bills went 68 years with a negative real return. What feels safe in the short run can be the real risk over a lifetime. 10. At the 2009 bottom, long-term US government bonds had outperformed stocks over the previous 40 years. Stocks usually beat bonds. Usually is not always. 11. Gold and the Dow were both at 800 in 1980. Today gold is around $4,200 an ounce. The Dow is near 48,000. Cash flows beat commodities. 12. And yet, since the dot-com peak, gold is up 1,400% and stocks are up 500%. You can support almost any argument by changing the start and end dates. 13. If you were born in 1970, the S&P rose nearly tenfold by the time you grew up. If you were born in 1950, the market went nowhere. We build our entire worldview on the luck of our birth year. 14. Managed-futures funds gained 14% in 2008 while stocks lost 37%. Since 2009, they're up 29% while stocks are up 520%. Non-correlation cuts both ways. 15. Invest from 1960 to 1980 and beat the market by 5% a year, and you'd have made less than someone who invested from 1980 to 2000 and underperformed by 5% a year. When you were born matters more than how good you are. 16. The Dow fell 17% in 1929, 34% in 1930, 53% in 1931, and 23% in 1932. Four straight years. Be grateful for the one you're living in. 17. Only 47.7% of stocks have ever produced a lifetime return that beat one-month Treasury bills. Most funds miss the market because most stocks do. 18. In 1908, Dow earnings were cut in half. The index rose 46% that year. The stock market is not the economy. 19. In 1949, the market traded at 6.8x earnings with a 7.5% dividend yield. Fifty years later it hit 30x earnings with a 1% yield. You can model everything and still never predict how investors will feel. 20. Warren Buffett is one of the greatest investors who ever lived. In the 20 months into the dot-com peak, Berkshire lost 45% while the Nasdaq 100 gained 290%. No pain, no premium.