onchain metrics history show a probability of ~$40k at 0.4% quantile aka 1 in 250. it's not happening brother, sorry mate. we have confirmed weekly bullish rsi divergence as well as a bullish weekly SFP. i LOVE your work, but worst case is a fast bought ~$50-55k wick.

#Bitcoin has hit the quantile where you'd want to be accumulating positions over a longer period. - Touched the 200-Week MA. - In the lower quantile of valuations, which historically has been making a low in this region. It doesn't mean we'll be bottoming out here, but we're at least close, and the ROI of buying here has historically been incredible. That's primarily why I'm not selling positions and instead want to stick with them as a whole.

This is truly peak value. Right now, Bitcoin is trading at around the 7% level. What this means is that Bitcoin only trades at this value level, less than 7% of the time. So 93 out of 100 days, Bitcoin is trading higher. That is over a 9/1, which are fantastic odds. We are currently just above Quantile 5, which Bitcoin has only ever gone below once, within the 2022 bear market. However, in each previous bull market, Bitcoin has tagged Q95, whereas this time, it did not even tag Quantile 75. Even more evidence that this is a mid cycle correction. In summary, this is not the time to be hasty or afraid, this is the time to act. Although our instant expansion thesis got invalidated, we will not be down here long.

Honored to be giving a keynote at the Prague Bitcoin Conference about the Bitcoin Quantile Framework and the Saylor Curve, as well as a panel presentation. This is the first Bitcoin conference I've ever been to, and I'll be showing my face. If you can make it, come say hi! I'll be the 6'6, jacked dude 🤣 Use Promo Code: C for a 10% discount when you register. June 11-13.

New Research: Ten-year trends and influencing factors of hospitalization costs in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease: a quantile regression analysis (2016–2025) frontiersin.org/articles/10.… #FrontiersIn #HealthServices

I find this more relevant than all the Rainbow / quantile charts showing that bitcoin is in the lower band...

Interesting signal on the Log Reg Quantile Bands. First bottom touch of the cycle around $64k in mid-2026. Historically these lower quantile touches have marked major cycle lows pretty reliably. Will be watching if this holds as support or if we get a retest. Thanks for the open-source script! What’s your target for the next leg up if this is indeed the bottom?

Nur mal so zur Info, Zacki. Das ist ein "Multi-Method-Ensemble". Es werden für 7 Rekonstruktionen, die für sich jeweils anders Unsicherheit abbilden mit untersch. Methoden insgesamt 7000 Realisierungen als Ensemble generiert. Unsicherheit ➡️ empirische Quantile der Verteilung.

$BTC Power Law Asymmetrical Quantile Model. Both frameworks remain qualitative in nature when assessing potential market bottoms. At present, Bitcoin is exhibiting extreme oversold conditions. However, a confirmed higher-timeframe bottom has not yet materialized. While the short-term market structure appears constructive and healthy, a sustainable cyclical low will likely require additional consolidation, heightened panic selling, and a broader surge in extreme fear. Patience remains critical. #Btc #Bitcoin

Bitcoin Logarithmic Regression Quantile Bands just had the first bottom signal of this cycle. Open source script: it.tradingview.com/script/GU…

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Part of it includes the power law, cost of production, the 200DMA quantile model, and a few other metrics. The model isn’t completely finished yet, so I might add or remove a few over time.