2 PM FRIDAY 6/12/26 TROPICAL UPDATE
Happy Friday, everyone! I am continuing to monitor a tropical wave that has emerged into the southwestern Gulf of Mexico (AKA The Bay of Campeche). Fortunately, strong wind shear is creating an unfavorable environment for development, which is why the chance of development is extremely low at 10%. For those in the Carolinas, there is absolutely nothing to worry about with this system.
For those along the northwestern Gulf Coast, particularly in Texas, there is a very low chance this disturbance could briefly become a tropical depression. If that were to occur, forecast guidance suggests it would move north-northwest before interacting with a cold front, which is expected to increase rain and thunderstorm chances across the Deep South early next week.
God forbid that scenario were to actually play out, the impacts would be minimal, as the approaching front would already be producing widespread showers and thunderstorms. In other words, whether this disturbance develops or not, the overall weather pattern would look very similar.
Bottom line: This system is not a concern, and there are currently no other areas being monitored for tropical development across the Atlantic Basin!
#uswx #hurricaneseason #HurricaneSeason2026
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