🚀 Understanding BTC Treasury Companies Months to Cover mNAV.
(And why just looking at mNAV might be a mistake).
If hunting for Bitcoin treasury companies like
$MSTR or
$ALTBG (The Blockchain Group @_ALTBG ) might seem counterintuitive at first (why buy shares that give you less BTC exposure than buying Bitcoin directly?)
Let’s break it down with an example using
$ALTBG and touch on Strategy’s strategy.
Imagine you have € 93,000. You could buy 1 BTC outright, or you could buy 37,200 shares of ALTBG at current prices. Each
$ALTBG share currently holds 333 sats (0.00000333 BTC).
Multiply that out: 37,200 × 333 = 12,387,600 sats or 0.123876 BTC. That’s only 1/8th of the Bitcoin value you’d get by buying BTC directly—your mNAV (market Net Asset Value) is 8.
So, why would anyone do this? (Well, allot of us want this actualy!)
BTC treasury companies trade at a premium to their Bitcoin holdings (mNAV). This allows them to issue new shares, sell them, and buy more Bitcoin at what’s effectively a discount (in this case, ~1/8th the price of BTC).
This creates BTC yield: their Bitcoin holdings grow faster than the dilution from new shares.
The key question: If you invest 1 BTC’s worth of capital into these shares (getting 0.123876 BTC intrinsically), how long until your shares’ intrinsic BTC value equals 1 BTC again?
@adam3us came op with a genius KPI for this is and it is called Months to Cover MNAV. And its a game changer.
Based on historical data and projecting forward,
$ALTBG BTC yield is growing fast. Right now, it takes about 4 months to cover the mNAV of 8.
With their possible (projected by me (NFA)) next Bitcoin purchase, this could drop to 3.33 months in just 2 weeks.
In other words, if they keep this pace, your intrinsic BTC value could be back to 1 BTC in just over 3 months!
For comparison,
$MSTR (Strategy) is estimated to have a Months to Cover MNAV of about 18 months, reflecting their larger scale and slower relative Bitcoin accumulation.
NFA ofcourse, just math.