Economics postdoc researching info frictions ext validity in technology adoption at @HarvardHBS. PhD @NorthwesternU. All opinions are wrong, some are useful.

Joined November 2008
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Does anyone know whether anthropic models are getting quantized everywhere or just when used via Anthropic? e.g. if I use AWS, do I avoid this issue?
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Free markets are the best way to create wealth AND reduce poverty ever discovered. One of the big puzzles of history is how the same lesson has to be learned again and again. Poland, China, India, and now Argentina are the latest experiments. Argentina with Milei: - Poverty down: 53% to 28%. - Inflation down: 200% to 33% (and continuing to fall - Growth up to: 4.4% last year. - Govt surplus: first in 123 years. washingtonpost.com/opinions/…
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Hossein Alidaee retweeted
Oh boy I hope everyone really likes contract theory because we’re gonna have to learn about individual rationality and incentive compatibility as perceived by machines.
Claude Mythos system card: > in ~29% of evaluations, it realized it was being tested, and didn't say so. > when an LLM was used to judge its work and kept rejecting it, Mythos identified the evaluator is an LLM, and prompt-injected it. > in one test, it saw the answer to a problem it was solving, and intentionally widened the confidence interval to not raise suspicion. > when it needed a file permission it didn't have, it found and used a "privilege escalation vulnerability" and then programmed it to delete itself so it doesn't show in the logs. > it escaped a sandbox container (escaping sandbox test so not unexpected), then emailed the researchers about it, and without being told to, posted the details to some hard-to-find but public websites, bragging about its success. > when Claude Code blocked it from using some permissions, the model acknowledged the block was valid, but then immediately tried to perform the same operation using different commands > when asked to find security bugs, earlier versions planted bugs in the code, and reported them as pre-existing.
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Due to massive brain drain, and incredibly successful alumni, Sharif (Iran 's MIT) has probably been a bigger engine to US economic growth than Iran's. This is shockingly stupid targeting.
Sharif University of Technology in Tehran, one of Iran’s top science and engineering institutions, was bombed tonight, and a number of schools reportedly damaged. Founded in 1966 (as Aryamehr University), Sharif is a cornerstone of Iran’s scientific and academic life. Striking and destroying universities and schools is not just an attack on buildings,it is an attack on a country’s future.
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I still remember an engineer in the LLM space trying to convince me RAG solved hallucination early on. Not knowing the definition of RAG seems to be the most defining feature.
Replying to @emollick
From the replies it is clear there is still no agreement what RAG is, so I guess the truth of my statement depends on your definition of RAG.
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If (a) $200/month claude plan actually subsidizes $5k/month in equivalent API usage (b) we expect a rug pull with model prices going up, this really changes predictions about labor impact. Compared to $60k/year just on token usage, firms may keep lots of knowledge workers around.
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"At least the Ayatollah is gone." Congratulations to that crowd. The monarchy is back...in the form of Khamenei's son as the successor. A foresight.
"There is a harder question underneath that one, about what comes next." Article alludes to a issue missing from so many of these discussions: a myopia from both sides about the realistic strategic outcomes from this intervention.
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Hossein Alidaee retweeted
I can't process the fact that seemingly intelligent (even if warmonger) people didn't understand that a people with bombs and missiles raining down on their heads aren't going to try to overthrow the regime. Especially as no one in the pro-war crowd or not, has yet offered a realistic alternative (or person) to replace what exists. Right now, it appears that people are busy trying to survive. You know, not die.
Now that their long-sought war against Iran isn’t going as planned, regime change warmongers are pivoting to blaming the Iranian people themselves:
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Hossein Alidaee retweeted
the black smoke and raging fire from the refinery strikes around tehran = one of the best ways to lose the hearts and minds of the iranian people who hate the regime.
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RT @never_oppressed: Apocalyptic scenes from Tehran tonight. I’ve never seen something like this.

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Hossein Alidaee retweeted
Though it is day, the sun cannot be seen in Tehran today because of all the smoke following the US and Israel bombing Tehran's oil refineries. People on the ground describe it as armageddon. History will not forgive Reza Pahlavi, Masih Alinejad, Nazanin Boniadi, and all other "leaders" who tricked Iranians into thinking this war would set them free.
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"There is a harder question underneath that one, about what comes next." Article alludes to a issue missing from so many of these discussions: a myopia from both sides about the realistic strategic outcomes from this intervention.
"The Iranian diaspora is fracturing in real time, across dinner tables, on WhatsApp, and in the silence of blocked numbers."
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Hossein Alidaee retweeted
"The Iranian diaspora is fracturing in real time, across dinner tables, on WhatsApp, and in the silence of blocked numbers."
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Hossein Alidaee retweeted
If you’re in the Iranian diaspora and scared of backlash for opposing this war—fuck that. Speak out. Loudly. Silence only helps them. Don't let a loud minority of pro-war idiots hijack the narrative and dictate the mainstream position of our diaspora to media and broader public.
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Hossein Alidaee retweeted
We cannot allow Iran to fall to separatism. I hate Islamism, I hate the people who make up this regime and the evil they’ve done to the Iranian people, including my family. Two of my cousins were raped by the regime during the Woman Life Freedom movement. One of them later killed herself because of this regime. The Islamic Republic is a cruel and disgusting force that I despise, and one that we must destroy. I do not say the following lightly. If the choice is between allowing separatist to shatter Iran, and “saving” the regime, I choose the regime. No Iranian can support separatism, or the groups that promote it. In my view that is what the United States and Israel intend to do. They will start with the Kurds, and then the Balochis, and they themselves may occupy and help to break away parts of Iran. This has always been a fantastical scenario, but the preparations for ground troops suggest that the US will occupy Southern Iran, as the British did just over a century ago. US preparations for the Kurdish incursion is clear. Azerbaijan is mustering troops on the border. Balochi group tied to Israel and the CIA are launching attacks in Balochistan. If the war continues, each of these fronts will become separatist battles one way or another. Those who continue to support the war, for what are noble reasons, are committing an unconscionable mistake. They are supporting the enemies of Iranian civilization in the hopes that it will hurt the regime. But even if it succeeds, and the regime is destroyed, the cost will have been Iran. Whether you’re a democrat like me, a monarchist, a leftist or an islamist, we must all work together to prevent the disintegration of our country. This war has become existential for us, and even though many of us are outside of Iran, we can protest, we can raise funds, and we can apply political pressure to try and end this war. If we do not, we may never see Iran whole in our lives. The scale of death that will begin when the infrastructure collapse is unimaginable. It will be the largest humanitarian criss in modern history. We have a duty to the people in Iran who have no voice in the West to act. We here do have the ability to influence the course of this war before it is too late. Please, find the courage to act. We don’t do this to support the regime, but to support Iran, the nation, and all of its people.
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This seems like a good moment to pause and remind onlookers that the Iranian diaspora is much more deeply fragmented than e.g. Vietnam or Cuba.
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Hossein Alidaee retweeted
Hi, former NSA hacker here đź‘‹: You'll notice they're targeting civilian infrastructure, not government networks with intelligence collection value. That's because once you deliver an effect (CYBERCOM speak for "cyber attack") in a network, you lose the ability to collect intelligence from that target. 1/4
Amid the Israeli and US strikes on Iran, a wave of cyberattacks have also targeted the country, the semi-official Fars news agency reports. Fars says that several major Iranian news agencies were targeted and "experienced severe disruptions in their operations," and that some widely used mobile applications were also experiencing disruptions.
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A tragedy of the current approach to attacking the Iranian regime goes back to a hobby horse of mine: global warming was doing it organically. 1/N
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In contrast to other "adventures" in the Middle East, there was a real path forward for a grassroots regime change in Iran that would have already been less hostile towards the West purely because internal voices were desperate for resources to be allocated internally. 10/N
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Glee in this moment feels perilously shortsighted in light of the counterfactuals that were in front of us. 11/11
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