I love the cadence of this chart Bitcoin % of Supply in Profit/Loss As I said previously, you start looking for major market cycle bottoms *after* they cross, not before. They just crossed. Such a great chart for keeping people on the right side of the market in midterm years

CEOs walking into work after realizing that the AI tokens are going to cost more than the employees they fired

A boom-turned-bubble is one scenario for an end to the secular trend, but an inflation bust is another. Below in the Commodity Super Cycles chart we see that commodities appear to have entered another secular bull market of their own. What’s interesting about this is that super-cycles for commodities and equities tend to be mirror images of each other (illustrated by the 10-year CAGRs below). So perhaps the strength in commodities is a subtle early warning sign for the secular trend in equities. If commodities continue to rally, the “open jaw” below between the Bloomberg Commodity Spot Index and the 5-year TIPS break-even will be a challenge for the bond bulls. One of those lines is wrong, I think, and if it’s the inflation break-evens, then it has implications for the Fed and therefore for bonds and therefore for equities via the Fed model. The Fed model returned to relevance in 2022 after being dormant for several decades. The Fed model simply holds that if the risk-free asset is competitively priced against the risk asset (equities), and its valuation derates, then so must equities. Hence, per the above chart, if inflation remains sticky in the 3-4% area and pushes up the TIPS breaks, then bond yields may well rise into that danger zone of 5% or above, which per the Fed model could force the stock market to derate.

U-R-A-N-I-U-M: Capital is quietly rotating away from stock markets 👇

Weak af

COSMIC 1.0.15 has been released. This update significantly levels up COSMIC gaming. Multiple fullscreen windows on a single workspace has been implemented meaning transitioning from Steam Big Picture to a game and back is smooth. Games launch fullscreen as intended. Wayland pointer constraints protocol fixes the FPS games experience. And in-game menus are working well. Available in Pop!_OS now and your favorite distro soon (if not already!)

RISK MANAGEMENT: Anthropic pulling forward its IPO and Alphabet $GOOGL issuing $80bn in stock are examples that signal to you what the AI companies themselves think the answer to this question is.

BOOM! Our revamped complimentary Education resource has been deployed: 42macro.com/education. If you suspect that you have any blind spots in your investment process, this TLDR-friendly tool will help you quickly get up to speed on what you NEED to know. Enjoy the learning!

MARKETS: I guarantee this episode would have 3-4x more engagement if our friend @adamtaggart replaced the word “bubble” with “crash,” “collapse,” “meltdown,” or any of the other buzzwords that bear porn purveyors use to trigger emotional responses from their victims. Reminder: the stock market only goes up BECAUSE OF bear porn victims capitulating, one by one, and panic-buying at higher and higher prices. This dynamic is exacerbated by the proliferation of options and the rally fuel that charm and vanna flows provide. Thank you, bear porn purveyors, for maintaining the wall of worry that allows those of us participating in raging bull markets to compound wealth! We appreciate you. 🤣

MARKETS: Friendly reminder that I don't make market calls. Our quantitative risk management overlays KISS (for retail; since Jan-23) and Dr. Mo (for institutions & sophisticated retail; since Oct-23) are responsible for signaling to members of our global investor community what to do in their portfolios, not me. My sole job as CIO is to narrate the evolution of the distribution of probable economic, policy, and market outcomes so that when KISS and Dr. Mo instruct our global investor community to do something different in their portfolios, they understand the fundamental reasons why and can dispassionately execute the signals. Most investors struggle to execute systematic processes in isolation because most people suffer from narrative fallacy and need to assign cause and effect to market movements. I don’t. To Druckenmiller and me, markets are simply squiggly lines that make us richer or poorer. But since this is admittedly a highly unusual method for approaching capital markets, I am happy to meet our members halfway with high-quality fundamental research. Plus, as a former member of the bottom 0.001% of our K-shaped society, I derive personal satisfaction from piecing the macro puzzle together faster than Wall Street consensus. At any rate, here is our latest Fundamental Research Summary, which we feature in every @42Macro research report and incrementally revise as the data and our themes evolve:

MARKETS: The key takeaways from the discussion below are twofold: 1. The backward-looking Fed is once again falling behind the curve relative to US core inflation dynamics and peer central banks; and 2. Any attempt by the Fed to catch up will likely cause a destabilizing-but-likely-transitory unwind of the crowded AI trade. Enjoy!

The Macro Minute | May 12, 2026 In today’s video, we answer the following questions: - Is the US economy being run too hot? - Are markets at the start of a dealer-led unwind of the melt-up? Subscribe to the Macro Minute on your favorite podcast platform: Apple: podcasts.apple.com/us/podcas… Spotify: open.spotify.com/show/1jYgzX… YouTube: youtube.com/@42Macro

Howdy #Team42, Join me and our friends @FerroTV, @lisaabramowicz1, and @annmarie on @BloombergTV today at 6:00 a.m. ET for a thoughtful and entertaining discussion regarding our outlook for the economy and asset markets. Be sure to tune in to @BloombergRadio at 8:00 a.m. ET for another wonderful discussion with our friends @tomkeene and @ptsweeney as well. Enjoy the content and thanks for tuning in. We appreciate you. Have a great day! —Skipper

MONETARY POLICY: The US–Israel–Iran conflict and the Strait of Hormuz are garnering the preponderance of headlines—and appropriately so given the associated sudden stop risk in the global liquidity cycle. Longer term, however, the most impactful battle in the world from the perspective of investors, business owners, and families on Main Street will transpire at the Eccles Building in Washington, D.C. We hope these data-driven insights bless you on your journey to retiring on time and comfortably. 💜

GROWTH: Our Jobless Recovery theme continues to gather steam: latimes.com/business/story/2…. As I remarked on our friend @MariaBartiromo’s show last summer, this is incredibly bullish for stocks… until it isn’t. The “smart money” bears will lament about it with cherry-picked data until the market peaks. Us “dumb money” bulls will make money off it until the market peaks. Choose wisely if you’re evaluating which camp to join.

We’ve had access to an engineering sample of the new Framework Laptop 13 Pro for about a month ahead of the announcement, and our biggest takeaway is this: it finally feels like a genuinely premium Framework. The first thing that stood out to us was the build quality. We (1/8)

Ugh, I’d skip Ubuntu tbh... Canonical keeps pushing snaps hard (even replacing apt packages), slower startup times, sandbox quirks, and yeah… the “ads” in apt didn’t help their image. Fedora’s usually the better dev box: newer kernel/toolchains, clean upstream GNOME, Wayland-first, no weird vendor lock-in, and dnf is solid. Closer to “stock Linux” without Canonical’s opinionated layers. Only real trade-offs: shorter release lifecycle and you’ll update more often, but if you’re deving, that’s usually a plus.

Modest tailwind on growth. Meaningful headwind on inflation. Meaningful tailwind on fiscal. Translation: the government is doing the Fed's job for it, badly, expensively, and somehow bullish for gold and Bitcoin. Paradigm C isn't a theme, it's a forecast. And it's aging like fine wine. 🍷

Hyprland looks slick, but those animations/blur can definitely be a bit resource-heavy if you’re trying to keep overhead low. Massive props for the modern design and dynamic tiling, but sometimes it feels like you're trading cycles for eye candy. If you like the Wayland/wlroots vibe without the bloat, you might want to look into Sway or a "barebones" Hyprland config with some of the transparency/shadow effects dialed back. Still hits that modern aesthetic without hitting the RAM quite as hard.

This Omacon keynote celebrates computers as more than just tools, but as beautiful, bespoke, and malleable objects. We have such a rich heritage to draw from in our industry, and we don't have to accept losing control over our machines or their aesthetics.