Tweeting about Iowa sports from an analytical, level-headed point of view.
Joined August 2022
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21 Jan 2025
We're getting hung up on the 2 score game thing, but not all 2 score deficits are equal.
16 means you need 2 two pointers JUST to go to OT, so scoring 2 TDs still only gives you a ~12% win prob.
Get the FG (not a given, but high %) means 2 TDs is a 100% win.
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21 Jan 2025
Also
Proof that "the analytics" don't always say to go for it
It's just that our instincts are almost always too risk-averse
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13 Sep 2024
So Troy's won 8 of its last 30 coin tosses. The probability of winning 8 or less out of 30 is less than 1%!
There's a lesson here about random chance.
If a team goes 8-22 in close games, or recovers 8/30 fumbles, they're labeled as terrible at those things, instead of unlucky.
11 Sep 2024
PODCAST: Whenever you're ready to turn the page, let's look at what Iowa needs to accomplish on Saturday vs. Troy, knowing that Big Ten play is on deck. Also airing tonight on @1460kxno from 6-7pm!
hawkcentral.com/story/sports…
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13 Sep 2024
By the same logic, Troy must be using a weighted coin in all of its games.
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11 Sep 2024
First 9 games of 2023 vs first 2 of 2024
Performance numbers are apples/oranges because of opponents, but usage numbers are fun to compare.
Motion, RPO, personnel, play action, run schemes all see big changes.
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8 Sep 2024
Iowa drops slightly on offense (#110) and defense (still #1) and now #22 overall
8 Sep 2024
😍🤩 WEEK 3 SP RANKINGS 🙀🕺
* LOOK AT YOU, FIU AND TXST
* That's ... a solid bounce back, Clemson
* OU and Notre Dame (and App State): 😬😬😬
* Uh, 6 of the top 7 are SEC (and it's kinda hard to argue)
* Georgia-Ohio State title game? Wow. How bold.
espn.com/college-football/in…
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Hawkeye Analytics retweeted
8 Sep 2024
🚨Week 3 KFord Ratings Top 30🚨
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8 Sep 2024
49.4% for Iowa, which is a little higher than I expected.
Iowa was.... 60% to win this game going in?
This wasn't some horrible outlier performance.
8 Sep 2024
Lowest postgame win expectancy in a win, Week 2:
Ga S'ern > Nevada 8.7%
Okla St > Arkansas 13.8%
Oklahoma > Houston 15.7% (!)
Ark St > Tulsa 15.8%
Ball St > Mo St 38.2%
Illinois > Kansas 42.3%
NIU > ND 45.6%
UVA > WF 49.9%
Full PGWE list here:
docs.google.com/spreadsheets…
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8 Sep 2024
He's right
7 Sep 2024
Kirk Ferentz on going for two: It gave us our best chance to win the football game.
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8 Sep 2024
This isn't even the best logic, because it was the correct decision either way, but would you really want OT in that game? Wouldn't you rather take your chances on one play to win in regulation?
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7 Sep 2024
Lot of talk about the "great" run game, but Iowa only had a 32% success rate on runs. They just had 4 explosives that help the EPA/YPP numbers.
That's great, but not necessarily super repeatable. See the 2023 Wisconsin game.
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7 Sep 2024
RT @gameonpaper: Iowa State 20 | -10.39 EPA
#21 Iowa 19 | -17.07 EPA
Full advanced stats from the Cy-Hawk game: gameonpaper.com/cfb/game/401… ht…
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7 Sep 2024
If Iowa State misses the FG, we are far less outraged about the same performance
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7 Sep 2024
If your goal is to be a top 20 team, you should not be trying to play every game close. You open yourself up to losing on one play. You're not going to win all of them.
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7 Sep 2024
Iowa State was the better team.
Iowa State is a good team.
We overreact to the most recent thing we saw. See last week 2H, and probably this week 2H. I'm not panicking.
Questioning going for 2 is not it.
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7 Sep 2024
I'm not usually a "just run the ball" guy, but....
Maybe just run the ball until they stop you.
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7 Sep 2024
Iowa is outplaying Iowa State, but a lot of the success was in the scripted zone. We'll see if they can get more going now that Iowa State has seen the offense for themselves.
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7 Sep 2024
Both of the FG decisions were probably fine, but it could be argued that they should have gone for at least one.
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7 Sep 2024
Duke runs the ball on 3rd & 5 down 3
Misses the field goal
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