Public opinion researcher, gathering data on perceptions of my state, my country, and my planet.

Joined November 2008
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Yesterday brought some good news.
6 Nov 2025
VICTORY! Federal district court dismisses class-action suit against pollster J. Ann Selzer A federal district court today dismissed with prejudice a lawsuit against renowned Iowa pollster J. Ann Selzer, holding that the First Amendment bars the claims against her related to her October 2024 general election poll. As the court explained, “there is no free pass around the First Amendment.” The lawsuit, brought by a subscriber to The Des Moines Register and styled as a class action, stemmed from a poll Selzer published before the 2024 presidential election that predicted Vice President Kamala Harris leading by three points in Iowa. The suit asserted claims, including under Iowa’s Consumer Fraud Act, alleging that Selzer’s poll, which missed the final result by a wide margin, constituted “fake news” and “fraud.” Selzer, represented pro bono by FIRE, pushed back. FIRE explained that commentary about a political election is core protected speech. “Fake news” is a political buzzword, not a legal cause of action. And “fraud” is a defined legal concept: intentionally lying to convince someone to part with something of value. The court explained, “polls are a mere snapshot of a dynamic and changing electorate” and “the results of an opinion poll are not an actionable false representation merely because the anticipated results differ from what eventually occurred.” As the Supreme Court has said, a party cannot evade First Amendment scrutiny “simply labeling an action one for fraud.” The court held the plaintiff had “no factual allegations” to support his fraud claim, instead “invok[ing] mere buzzwords and speculation” to support his claims. And not only did the court find the First Amendment barred the claims, it similarly held each claim defective under Iowa law even without the First Amendment’s protection. Selzer is pleased with the result: “I am pleased to see this lawsuit has been dismissed. The First Amendment’s protection for free speech and a free press held strong. I know that I did nothing wrong and I am glad the court also concluded that there was never a valid legal claim.” FIRE’s Chief Counsel Bob Corn-Revere, who led Selzer’s defense, responded to the ruling: “This decision shows where petty politics ends and the rule of law begins. The court’s strongly worded opinion confirms that a legal claim cannot be concocted with political slogans and partisan hyperbole, and that there is no hiding from the First Amendment. This is a good day for freedom of speech.” This lawsuit was a copycat of a still-pending suit filed by President Donald Trump against Selzer in December 2024 in which FIRE also represents her. FIRE Supervising Senior Attorney Conor Fitzpatrick remarked, "President Trump's suit makes the same frivolous arguments against the same defendants. We are confident it will meet the same fate."
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I'm attaching documents The Des Moines Register has made public. Oh, and mentions of "retirement" are inaccurate. It's been a long-time plan that this election would be my last work of this sort. Other work continues. My analysis document. documentcloud.org/documents/…

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Crosstabs from final 2024 pre-election Iowa Poll. documentcloud.org/documents/…

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Comparison of weighted v. unweighted data in final 2024 pre-election poll. documentcloud.org/documents/…

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A few years ago, I made a pilgrimage to Dixville Notch. A spiritual experience.
The only fitting result from Dixville Notch's midnight votes: A tie. Harris 3, Trump 3. cnn.com/2024/11/05/politics/…
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Correct spelling is Selzer. Thanks!
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J. Ann Selzer retweeted
Here is our @2waytvapp episode entitled "It's All About Pennsylvania" w/ a new poll of the state by @wickinsights , a poll of Erie, some of state's top analysts and reporters, and @RickSantorum @DaveMcCormickPA @ZitoSalena @jaselzer @BradOnMessage @billpeduto @Dani_PA and many more youtube.com/watch?v=A-5EgAOC…
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J. Ann Selzer retweeted
28 Sep 2024
The latest Iowa Polls tell us what voters think. We discuss poll results with J. Ann Selzer @jaselzer. Radio Iowa's @okayhenderson is joined by the Gazette's @ErinDMurphy and Gray TV's @idaveprice. Watch online anytime iowapbs.org/shows/iowapress/…
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J. Ann Selzer retweeted
27 Sep 2024
The latest Iowa Polls tell us what voters think. We discuss poll results with J. Ann Selzer @jaselzer. Radio Iowa's @okayhenderson is joined by the Gazette's @ErinDMurphy and Gray TV's @idaveprice. Watch tonight at 7:30pm or online anytime iowapbs.org/shows/iowapress/…
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J. Ann Selzer retweeted
Replying to @ErinDMurphy
If you want these types of insights in Iowa politics that the Selzer poll provides and don’t want to wait you can follow my Twitter account
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J. Ann Selzer retweeted
27 Sep 2024
Reaching enough youngest voters? Selzer: I'm never confident I'm always reaching enough younger votes. That hasn't changed over the years.
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Up first: Every four years, the electoral map gets shaken up a bit. But this year, some key states are polling tighter than usual. Pollster @jaselzer & @TexasMonthly's @AlexSamuelsx5 explain the numbers and the politics Live NOW on @WNYC.org wnyc.org/radio

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J. Ann Selzer retweeted
🚨 NEW Iowa Poll Donald Trump: 47% Kamala Harris: 43% Trump had been leading Joe Biden by 18 points in our June Iowa Poll. desmoinesregister.com/story/…
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J. Ann Selzer retweeted
IOWA POLL: 80% of Harris’ supporters say they are extremely or very enthusiastic about her as their choice for president. That's compared with 74% of Trump’s supporters who say the same. desmoinesregister.com/story/…
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New Iowa Poll coming soon! desmoinesregister-ia.newsmem…

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