Both wholesale and consumer inflation just moved outside their normal ranges. Since 1922, the S&P 500 rose only 36% of the time during these periods. A dollar invested only during these periods since 1922 lost 90.8%. Read full analysis: users.sentimentrader.com/use…

"At the end of May, the average of the four is [185%], the highest level in history. For a twelfth straight month, the average is more than 3 standard deviations above its historical mean, signaling a deeply overvalued market." CFP's: "Buy more stocks!" The same chorus of permabulls were saying the same thing in 1999, predicting the tech mania could go on for a decade or more. Instead tech stocks crashed 80%, the S&P had a lost decade, and fortunes were wiped out. Tune out the noise, and plan for the worst 2% of times. Thats a plan you can stick with no matter what happens. x.com/PFOInvestor/status/206…

Bloomberg commodity index trend goes from consolidation to bearish. via Bloomberg

Everyone's focused on layoffs and recession fears. Since 1968, when continued unemployment claims were below their 78-week average, $1 invested in the S&P 500 grew to $43.97. When claims were above their 78-week average, that same $1 grew to just $1.94. Claims are currently below their 78-week average. Read full analysis: users.sentimentrader.com/use…

On average, the price of a new IPO stock drops 50% in the first 12 months, even for great businesses. Never chase the girl . Let her run to you.

Quick checklist how a great setup looks like ⬇️

The degree by which the public is bullish stocks ties for 2nd place out of the 468 months the Conference Board asked the question about the market's direction. It need not spell impending doom for the market, but you should recall that 2018 was a choppy-to-down year and spring 2025 witnessed the Tariff Tantrum. Be careful.

I sold all my Bitcoin this morning. I sold all my stocks too. After years in the markets, I’ve finally learned the truth. Nobody ever went broke taking profits. Anyway… See you all tomorrow when I buy everything back higher.

Taking a profit is often a "damned if you do, damned if you don't" dilemma. While taking a profit is always better than taking a loss, there are times when taking a profit can create anxiety and outright regret. Let's say you buy a stock at 50 with a mental target of 100 and maybe the possibility of 150. Next let's say the stock goes to 100 but you do not take profits. Next let's say that your trailing stop (if you use these) takes you out of the trade at 80. Do you then regret not taking profits at 100? Of course you do if you are even part human being. But what if you would have taken profits at 100 but then the stock kept running? Chances are you would have also regretted the decision to take profits at 100. You see, taking profits is a damned-if-you-do-damned-if-you-don't business. I hate regret. I decided many decades ago in my 50 year career that regret is something a trader needs to avoid. Living in a cycle of regret is not healthy for trading will sooner or later come back to bite you. So I made a decision to create rules and stick by them. Rules created process for me so that my emotions were not led around by my last or current trade. I take profits at targets when I have a light position on. If I take a heavier position I will then take profits at the initial target on a portion of my trade and hold out for a 2X profit on the other portion. Do I miss the occasional rocket-ship market by taking profits? Of course. There is no perfect trading plan. There is an alternative way that from time to time I will employ in a trade. That is using a simple moving average on a partial position so that I adopt a trend following approach on some of the risk I take. In a trade following approach inevitably the top cannot be picked so some money is given back at the trend change or major correction. But again, there is no perfect model. My recommendation to new traders is to commit yourself to the path of least regret, whatever that might be.