This podcast with
@bcmassey (hosted by
@jeffma &
@RufusPeabody) is a masterclass for those interested in the NFL draft and human judgement.
- Base Rates vs. Judgement: "Every one of these prescriptions—trade back, pick high-value positions, go with the big board consensus—it’s basically: don't exercise expert judgment about player evaluation. It’s like, 'Defer expertise in the interest of more picks.' It’s hard to do because it flies in the face of guys who spent their lives getting better at evaluating individuals. Each one of those prescriptions says, 'Don't bet on individuals. Just play the base rates.'"
- Base Rates vs. Judgement: "If you look at every two-for-one trade you could have made to come down out of a position in the first round... between 60% and 70% of the time, you are more likely to do better on that stat if you take two lower picks instead of one. You can overcome a 60% base rate if you are 65% diagnostic that a player is better, but you have to have a track record that justifies that kind of confidence."
- The Rarity of Skill: "There are individuals who actually can pick stocks better than the market. It’s just that they’re very rare. General managers who are very sure of themselves think they can discriminate like that. But the question is: what’s the track record? Are you keeping score?"
- AI vs. Analytics: "AI has better branding than analytics and data science used to, and it’s got a better user interface for the world. People are listening to models more because they're in the guise of 'AI' instead of a geeky guy with a spreadsheet."
open.spotify.com/episode/3cu…