TL;DR - Iβm bullish on ETH and tired of the doomerism and complaining
The gap between builder and market sentiment around Ethereum, and the actual potential of the Ethereum ecosystem, feels unreal right now.
The reality is that Ethereum is the leading programmable blockchain by a large margin on most meaningful metrics. It has the deepest liquidity, the largest developer base, the most mature tooling, the most composable stack, the most developed DeFi ecosystem, etc.
Yes, other chains have interesting things going on. I am not saying anyone should underestimate Solana, Canton, the L2s, or even Tron or BNB Chain. They deserve the respect and recognition they have worked hard to earn. But most of their unique advantages only matter because Ethereum is the benchmark they are differentiating against.
Ethereum is the benchmark. Ethereum is the default. It is the largest credibly neutral universal settlement layer. It is the leader in this space.
And yet the Ethereum community often spectacularly fails to acknowledge and communicate this advantage. Somehow, the dominant narrative has become one of unmet expectations, internal conflicts, lack of hope, frustration, and an uncertain future.
I call bullshit on that narrative.
If crypto is the infrastructure for the future financial system (spoiler: it is), then Ethereum is still best positioned to sit at the center of it: a shared settlement layer for regulated and unregulated DeFi, tokenized RWAs, L2s, ZK identity systems, and even collectible NFTs. Yes, other projects want to be this centerpiece too. But today they still need to prove they deserve to be considered serious contenders in that race. Ethereum already has its starting number.
I know token prices are not where we want them to be. But this reminds me of old Vitalik's post asking whether crypto had earned the market cap it had back then. I approach that question a bit differently than he did, but I think it is still a very valid question.
Did crypto earn its valuation back then? Has Ethereum earned today's valuation and price?
In many ways, yes. We have built a lot of great tech. We have solved many hard problems. Progress in areas like ZK has gone far beyond what most of us expected five years ago.
And yes, the institutions are coming.
But do we know how they are supposed to make money once they arrive? Can we explain where and how crypto gives them material improvements over legacy technology - enough to produce real savings, better efficiency, or higher margins? Is what we have built compatible with their tech stacks and compliance requirements? Do we have solid business cases for them?
And if youβre not a fan of institutions, can you explain how we are replacing them in a way that lets me recommend a DeFi product to my friends without their money somehow ending up funding North Korea? Why should they abandon those institutions and go crypto? And is your argument valuable enough to justify the crypto valuations you expect?
Personally, I can answer most of those questions positively. But the answers are not obvious or very solid. In many cases, we are still at the beginning of the journey, not the end. So I do not expect prices or valuations to behave as if we had already reached the finish line. There is still a ton of work to do, a lot of things to build, and a lot to prove.
But today, more than at any point in the past, I am optimistic that we will be able to answer those questions soon-ish. It feels like we are in the "Trough of Disillusionment" phase of the Gartner Hype Cycle, and weβre starting to climb the "Slope of Enlightenment".
Since 2016, my thesis for crypto has been simple: the IT infrastructure for finance - or more generally, for value exchange - is mostly risk and cost. It is rarely a unique competitive advantage. So it makes sense for many actors to share that risk and cost instead of each owning and maintaining it for themselves.
Today, more than ever, I believe Ethereum is the best possible candidate for that common, shared IT infrastructure and it offers the strongest ecosystem to build on (together with L2s).
If you made it this far, thank you. A like or RT would be much appreciated, if only to justify the time I spent composing this ragepost. ;)