Famously (there is a beautiful Works in Progress piece on this) in 2016, Geoffrey Hinton told an audience in Toronto that medical schools should stop training radiologists, since AI would soon outperform them at reading scans. Ten years later, there are more radiologists than ever, and they earn more than they did then. Hinton was right about the task, but he was wrong (so far!) on the future of the radiology profession. Times have never been better for them. The gap between those two claims, the difference between tasks and jobs, is the subject of a paper I have written with Jin Li and Yanhui Wu, and that we release today: "Weak Bundle, Strong Bundle: How AI Redraws Job Boundaries." (Very relatedly we are also finishing the first draft of our book "Messy Jobs" on AI and Jobs!! You will be the first to hear). We start from the observation that the growing literature on AI and labor markets measures the AI shock by task exposure: people count how many tasks AI can perform in a given occupation AI can perform, and infer that more exposure means more displacement. Eloundou et al. published a paper in Science in 2024 that started this literature, and many follow the same logic. The inference they make is that the more exposed tasks, the worse the outcomes. This is incomplete, because labor markets price jobs, not tasks. A radiologist does not just sell image classification, but does many other jobs: triages cases, communicates with other physicians, trains residents, makes the difficult decisions, and signs a diagnosis. The market buys a bundled service. The question AI poses is not whether it can do one task inside the bundle. The question is whether that task can be pulled out. Thread (1/3) dropbox.com/scl/fo/689u1g785…

I just took action with : Doughnut Economics Educational Materials. Take action here: actionnetwork.org/forms/doug…

Sorry I will delete my account. X is take over by and controlled in a way that make it impossible to use it for information and knowledge exchange. You can find me on linked in linkedin.com/in/søren-kernd…

This account is no longer active and will not be monitored. For interaction with CIRCLE please follow our LinkedIn account linkedin.com/company/circle-… and find information about our innovation research community and work on our website circle.lu.se/

Meanwhile...the world’s elite has arrived in Davos on over 1000 private jets to lecture you about climate change and economic inequality.

Why does Trump target Denmark? SPOILER: It has nothing to do with Greenland. 🧵

Pro-business is very different from pro-market. The former protects, supports, subsidizes, and props up firms and their owners; it's corporatism. The latter lets those businesses be creatively destroyed--and speeds up this process by removing artificial barriers for new entrants.

This was my final week as @FTC Chair so I wanted to say thank you.

WHERE IS ENTREPRENEURSHIP AND INNOVATION RESEARCH HEADING? Here is a Call for Papers for a two-day workshop, April 8-9, on the above theme. Keynote talks by David Audretsch, Peter Klein, and Siri Terjesen. Deadline Febr 15. Submit a paper! shorturl.at/9vbUE

“The biggest lesson that we need to learn is that we are just plain not prepared for the climate that we have created. Our world is not built for the climate that we live in, and the biggest change is going to require acknowledging that fact.” cnn.com/2025/01/18/climate/j…

Thirty years ago, the United States persuaded Ukraine that it does not need nuclear weapons and gave Ukraine "security assurances." Today, the United States is persuading Ukraine that it needs to give up territories, forget about NATO membership, and lower the conscription age.

German Foreign Minister Baerbock walked out of a government meeting, refusing to take a photo with Chancellor Scholz after his decision to block a new aid package for Ukraine — Bild

Which country has the largest share of solar PV in terms of capacity installed? It’s the Netherlands. Source is @IEA

📢Exciting news! Units 6, 7, and 8 of The Economy 2.0 Macroeconomics are now live—earlier than expected! Access these macroeconomics resources today! core-econ.org/the-economy/ma…

Fascinating paper by Buchanan and Vanberg: ’The Market as a Creative Process’ | Economics & Philosophy cambridge.org/core/journals/…

Interesting studie What AI Means for Growth and Jobs by Philippe Aghion, et al @ProSyn?referral=92d5c2 prosyn.org/l5RWEem

The latest Ukrainian air and sea campaign is absolutely devastating for Putin. While Russians are bleeding to death for tiny villages in the Donbas, Ukraine is targeting economic neurocenters of Russia's economy. Especially the frequency of successful Ukrainian strikes is impressive. Basically, every night another Russian facility in the oil and gas industry goes up in flames. We have even indications that Russia is running out of fire fighting material. It is a crisis on steroids.

Confessions of the former CIA chief in Congo about #Lumumba, murdered on Jan.17, 1961. US President Eisenhower had approved the ideas of the CIA's “chief chemist”, who arrived in Léopoldville-Kinshasa with various instruments to kill Lumumba—including poison for his toothpaste.

𝑬𝒔𝒕𝒖𝒂𝒓𝒊𝒏𝒆 𝑴𝒂𝒑𝒑𝒊𝒏𝒈 (𝑽𝒊𝒓𝒕𝒖𝒂𝒍) 𝑭𝒆𝒃𝒓𝒖𝒂𝒓𝒚 2025. 𝑶𝒖𝒕𝒄𝒐𝒎𝒆𝒔 𝒊𝒏𝒄𝒍𝒖𝒅𝒆: ✨ An introduction to the Estuarine Mapping framework, including key principles. ✨ How Estuarine mapping links to the EU Field Guide as a roadmap to an enabling organisational approach. ✨ Workshop processes for Estuarine Mapping with clients, including Constructors, Counterfactuals and new-generation Constraint Mapping. ✨ Explore applications of SenseMaker for Estuarine Mapping at scale. This workshop will explore methods to look at where we are, where we want to go next, and what we can do about it. Along the way, we will deal with questions like these: 🌟 What can I change and manage in a complex environment? 🌟 What do I do when simple goals don’t work? 🌟 How do I plan for uncertainty? 🌟 How do I combine the grand vision with the day-to-day? There are only 6 seats left; to book, visit our website 👉 thecynefin.co/product/estuar… #leadershipdevelopment #agile #scrum #training #coach