Beautiful progress.

Progress.

Oregon is a microcosm for the US (although they are not as ingenious as MN in fraud dept) oregonlive.com/health/2026/0…

We're six weeks into the new year and the spring market is taking shape. Home buyer demand is responding to cheaper mortgage rates. Pending sales are inching higher and the growth rate of inventory is slowing way down. If you're in the group expecting a surge of supply, watch the data closely. The inventory gap from 2025 is closing every day. From 30% growth in 2025 to just 8.7% now. The data this week: ➡️688,000 single family homes on the market, only 8.7% more than last year ➡️Weekly pending sales averaging 3.5% more than 2025, though this week dipped with the deep freeze ➡️Price reductions at 32.4%, down 90 basis points from last year and falling when last year it was rising ➡️75,000 re-listed homes from last fall now back on the market ➡️Median pending price $388,475, barely 1% higher than a year ago ➡️Asking price per square foot 1.7% lower than last year Here's what I'm watching: the price reductions data is a powerful leading indicator. Right now fewer sellers are cutting prices compared to last year. That tells us demand is improving where last year it was deteriorating. If this line dips below 30%, that signals sufficient demand for sellers to hold firmer on pricing. But we're not there yet. Buyers are still in the driver's seat in most of the country. Home prices still have negative momentum. Mildly improving demand isn't enough yet to change that pattern. There are early leading indicators suggesting prices aren't in for a big drop, but demand hasn't picked up enough to really move the needle. If the inventory deceleration continues, by summer we could be looking at inventory declines compared to last year. Rising rates create rising inventory. Falling rates, falling inventory. That's what's underway. This is a very different market from a year ago.

"Too Late" Powell is trapped. Using the rear view mirror to drive forward is never safe. A .25 point cut will have little impact. Liquidity is drying up. States w/ sales tax will see falling income while their deficits increase. Net outflow from immigration exacerbates it.

Sell off market wide but the implications for software long term. Lower seat counts due to AI related layoffs. . Gov seat reductions from austerity at city/state/federal level. More efficient usage through AI analysis. Lower barrier to entry for new competitors.

Jensen is pushing back on the AI will kill all software narrative just like he pushed back last year on the DeepSeek panic. He was right then. He will be right again. "There's this notion that .. the software industry is in decline and will be replaced by AI. You could tell because there's a whole bunch of software companies whose stock prices are under a lot of pressure. Because somehow AI is going to replace them. It is the most illogical thing in the world and time will prove itself. .. If you were an artificial general intelligence, would you use the tools like ServiceNow and SAP and Cadence and Synopsys? Or would you reinvent a calculator? Of course, you would just use a calculator."

If you're not long $moh you are crazy. 50 million percent growth exclamation @michaeljburry

Two things can be true at once. It's going to be a rocky three months then it's going to rip. Head on a swivel time. Cash or short until Junish then ready to bet the house.

Toooooo Late.

Why AI won’t destroy existing software

We recently calculated the effect of tariffs on our independent inflation index. The effect was transient and estimated at about 0.8%. If not for tariffs, our independent US inflation index would have been below 2% for almost the entire 2025. However, tariff effects stabilized, and we are now back below 2% since January and near 1% since February. Our index is based on millions of real price data points rather than the much smaller number of surveys used to calculate official inflation metrics.

Even when you are right it can be painful.

It's started in earnest.

Trend Update: Deflation scare ahead. End of March will be super spicy. Risk assets are going to be in a bad spot. Fed rate decisions will have little impact as foreign bond rates climb causing US dollar liquidity strain.

Canada border today VS US border for past 4 years. Wow!

Biden-Harris set up a hotline for unaccompanied migrant kids to report rape, assault, slavery with sponsors - then they blew off 65,000 calls because they assigned just one staffer! Hearing bombshell: "How many staffers handled these phones and helping these kids?" "One." From August 2023 to January 2025, pure neglect. Dems trafficked these children deliberately. Every Democrat in Congress is complicit, including scumbag @AOC. Trump's HHS triaged the backlog, processed 59,000 reports, sparked 4,000 leads on trafficking and crime. Rescued kids, arrested sponsors. MAGA's cleaning up this nightmare, putting kids first.

She is 100% correct.