Trying to find moats riding S-curves. Entrepreneur, investor. It’s always Day 1. @IncreasingRtrns host. Sign up for updates: memosbyhh.com
Joined May 2009
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10 Sep 2025
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This is very interesting
Notably, the budget panel was comparable with Claude Fable 5 in performance.
A panel of Gemini 3 Flash, Kimi K2.6, and DeepSeek V4 Pro, fused together, beat solo GPT-5.5 and solo Opus 4.8 outright.
And it landed within 1% of Fable 5 while costing roughly half the price.
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“'For, when Rome was freed of the fear of Carthage, and her rival in empire was out of her way, the path of virtue was abandoned for that of corruption, not gradually, but in headlong course.”
When the Romans had no enemy, they fought each other and did more damage than any enemy.
When the Chinese had no enemy, they fought each other and did more damage than any enemy.
When the … had no enemy, they fought each other and did more damage than any enemy.
So it has been throughout the many civilizations.
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Elon Musk just became the world’s first trillionaire.
Let’s make sure he’s also the last.
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Jun 12
Azure is growing ~39% at roughly $104 bn revenue. Assuming ~33% EBIT margins and ~25x EBIT multiple, the rest of $MSFT ex OpenAI and Anthropic stakes is valued at ~15x EBIT.
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Jun 12
The counter to Bill Gurley is look at what happened with UPI and PIX in India and Brazil, respectively. They displaced cash, not credit. V/MA continued to grow. In the US there's no mandate for FedNow and customers won't give up 2% cash back to save the merchant money.
Jun 11
Bill Gurley says Visa and Mastercard will be "heavily threatened" by stablecoins.
From The Knowledge Project this week:
"Those two companies have two of the highest operating margins in the history of business. They have like 60% operating margins, and they're duopolies, and they were created by the banks. So the whole industry is kind of stuck in this world where they make a lot of money because it is this way. But there's zero reason why it should cost 2 or 3%. Just zero.
In America, if I want to send you 50 bucks digitally, I've got to go through ACH, which is 3-day settlement, which is part of this regulatory capture bullshit... If you have a Coinbase account, you can put your money in a USDC stablecoin and earn 4%, and within seconds immediately transfer money to someone else for pennies...
At this point, I think stablecoins will get there faster than the government will be able to do it."
$V $MA
Agree or disagree?
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Jun 12
"I don't care to belong to any club that accepts people like me as members."
Jun 12
I was allocated as much $SPCX as I wanted. This makes me worried. Why would I get this offer if the stock is going straight to 150 ?
This sounds and smells fishy. All my radar alerts are firing off.
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Jun 11
Saw my first Cybercab on its way to Key Biscayne, FL
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Jun 11
Like Mario Draghi’s 400-page report on EU’s lack of competitiveness, delivered in September 2024, this will be read by a few and quickly forgotten. Next up: more EU bureaucracy, taxes, regulations, and degrowth.
Jun 11
Ok. Finished reading it. The story of Europe's failure in AI is turned into a gripping story (congratulations to the authors on finding this way to write it) and an outstanding SHOUT for action.
I disagree with many things in this scenario (e.g. ASML cannot be used for leverage, I am afraid: all the EUV tech is San Diego-based (Cymer), and the chips are Nvidia, AMD, Intel, etc.) But the key insight is correct: (1) AI is THE critical technology of the future, and (2) Europe is falling badly behind on AI and running out of options.
Both the economic and strategic consequences are brutal.
We will write a reaction in Silicon Continent. In the meantime, please do read it. europe2031.ai/#timeline
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Jun 11
Correction: it's now at an 8-year low and trades at 9.2x trailing EV/EBIT
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Jun 11
If you look at the Adobe stock chart over the last 8 years, it kinda looks like the Marvell logo
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Jun 11
.@SECGov I'm getting rate limited just by using my browser manually... this is nuts. Please remove rate limits. This is financial information that everyone should be able to access at any time.
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A Scandinavian economist once boasted to Milton Friedman:
“In Scandinavia, we have no poverty.”
Friedman replied:
“That’s interesting, because in America, among Scandinavians, we have no poverty, either.”
Jun 10
Scandinavians in the US are wealthier than Scandinavians in Scandinavia (data from 2013).
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Jun 11
The US has about 1,300 GW of installed capacity but average usage is only ~500 GW. In 2026 and 2027 we are adding a net 137 GW, increasing avg capacity by 27%. Source: EIA
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👀 $CRM
Jun 10
Our spend with Salesforce is up a lot. The value of this software to our organization is 3x what is was 6 months ago
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Marcelo P. Lima retweeted
Jun 10
No SaaSpocalypse here! 🤷♂️
Jun 10
Q1 earnings season is just about done, and this Q has been great for software. Looking at the YoY growth in quarterly net new ARR added, this was the best quarter (by a long shot) in last ~5 years
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Jun 10
US unemployment rate is steady at 4.3%, new business formation is way up, yet Dario Amodei keeps saying AI will destroy jobs 🤔 Maybe he should ask Claude.
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Jun 10
Very smart people can be simultaneously very dumb in certain domains; Dario Amodei is wrong on jobs/tax policy (like his creation, his intelligence is also "jagged").
Handouts, redistribution, & the welfare state have NEVER worked.
What DOES work is equality of opportunity.
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Jun 10
@DarioAmodei should watch Milton Friedman on the welfare state:
youtu.be/1KCHl-GO01o
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