We are likely past the point of no return unfortunately around “ARR-embellishment”, if you put it nicely…
This version
@scottastevenson talks about is egregious IMO. I haven’t see too many cases of this.
One thing I do believe is that “ARR-dishonesty” will always come back to bite you. For the very few founders who want to play the most aggressive version of this game, it’s just not worth it… trust me.
For me, the major issue at hand is how we as an industry should disclose and report inference-based revenue, which there are arguments for and against it being included in an aggregate “ARR number”
The hard truth is that there are varying levels of quality of inference-based revenue and it’s ultimately a judgment call that an investor needs to make regarding the REPEATABILITY and DURABILITY of the underlying atomic unit of work or behavior being monetized.
This is how most investors drive towards a judgment on revenue quality…
1. Net revenue retention (more on this one below)
2. Gross logo retention
3. Gross revenue retention
4. Engagement retention
5. Engagement intensity
Very important side note - In SaaS era, most important measure for me was net revenue retention - N$R. We used to look for companies with 120% N$R and some best-in-class companies had 140-160% N$R.
Some AI companies today tout 200% N$R but it’s not like-for-like with the SaaS era in some cases where there isn’t the same repeatability and durability of the underlying activity.
Where the activity is more sporadic or experimental, this N$R should be viewed closer to a payments / fintech N$R that always look high due to starting off of a small base and grows quickly but may spin down again quickly also.
In any scenario, MORE TRANSPARENCY THE BETTER for everyone.
In the long horizon of time, it all comes to light and you don’t want to be a founder that has asked investors and employees to wade into your part of the ocean, only for the tide to go out and see that your “ARR” was not what you presented it to be… my 2c
I shared some of this sentiment in a
@WSJ article a few months back
It’s time to expose a huge scam in AI startups: Contracted ARR
The reason many AI startups are crushing revenue records is because they are using a dishonest metric
The biggest funds in the world are supporting this and misleading journalists for PR coverage.
The setup: Company signs 3-year enterprise deals. Year 1 is discounted (say $1M), Year 2 steps up ($2M), Year 3 is full price ($3M).
They report $3M as “ARR” — even though they’re only collecting $1M right now.
The worst part: The customer has an opt-out option at 12 months! It’s not actually a 3 year contract.
In the chart below, by Q5 the company is trumpeting ~$100M “ARR” to press, while actual cash-generating, in-effect ARR is ~$35M. That’s ~3x inflation.
On top of this, enterprise AI companies are bundling full-time “forward deployed engineers” into deals massively reducing margins, sometimes producing Year 1 negative margins.
At some point customers are going to start triggering their opt-out clauses or aggressively negotiating down Year 3 pricing.
And a wave of enterprise AI companies may collapse.