🧵I spent 9 months building a detailed new global model of AI data center finances along with @alasdairpr and @SamWinterLevy. It shows which factors are driving $10 billion investment decisions, who will control a key strategic asset of this century, and what policymakers can do to steer results while minimizing harms to the public. It’s part of a new @CarnegieEndow & @CEIPTechProgram report. Here are five key findings:

mythos will be bad ON PURPOSE on ai "frontier llm research" tasks, this is very very sad for the research community also the fact that this is un purpose not visible to the user is crazy

San Francisco and DC are spiritually the same city. Nice urban fabric in the old downtown. Demonic car oriented suburbs where most of the jobs are. Perfect Weather. San Jose is the Fairfax County of California.

The historic relationships between the U.S. and its European allies are shifting in a way that is likely to leave a lasting mark. @DKambUSA, @EUAmbUS, @FrenchAmbUS, and @SwedeninUSA will speak with @AKendallTaylor on the future outlook for transatlantic relations at the 2026 CNAS National Security Conference.

We annotated the new AI Executive Order with thoughts on where it makes progress, falls short, and requires more time to assess its viability. (@danielremler, @michellesnie, @james_s48, @CalebWithersDC)

NEW: BIS just issued guidance stating that licenses are required for advanced AI chip exports to China-headquartered firms located outside of China (e.g. a Tencent subsidy in Malaysia). The reason they had to issue this statement is BIS’ non-enforcement of certain export controls have (potentially inadvertently) have allowed Chinese companies to both buy Nvidia Blackwell chips and make AI chips at TSMC, all legally and without a license. This is a HUGE problem. Since May 2025, BIS has publicly stated that it is not enforcing certain license requirements related to AI chip shipments, and as a result, apparently Chinese companies’ overseas subsidiaries (e.g., Tencent Malaysia) have been able to legally buy Nvidia Blackwell chips without an export license - even though this had been restricted since 2023. Chinese companies have been buying these chips, very likely at scale. And because BIS has not updated export control regulations to clearly state what it IS enforcing, all of this was legal. It actually gets worse. BIS’ non-enforcement announcement in May 2025 extends to existing US restrictions that prevent TSMC from making AI chips for Chinese companies. US export control regulations require TSMC to do enhanced due diligence on any orders that could be an AI chip, to make sure it isn’t illegally being made for a Chinese company (directly or indirectly). But these regulations require a license requirement to be in effect to work. And those license requirements largely were not being enforced. This clarification does make clear that Blackwell shipments to China-headquartered companies outside of China are now illegal again—which is good, although obviously we have to see how many shipments have already gone to assess how much damage was done. BIS’ statement acknowledges these shipments have been happening when it says companies who bought chips under this loophole don’t have to stop using them. HOWEVER, this statement does NOT say that BIS will enforce the parts of US regulations requiring TSMC to do enhanced due diligence on AI chip orders. This is a massive loophole that still needs to be closed. If Chinese companies can make chips at TSMC (including by using third-country cutouts to receive the chips), there is no point to restricting China’s access to AI chips or advanced chip-making tools. Ultimately, BIS desperately needs to issue a regulation that clarifies what US export control policy for AI chips is. The reason this happened is because BIS said it is not enforcing existing regulations, but didn’t make clear what specific provisions its non-enforcement applied to, and didn’t update regulations to align with what it IS enforcing - which created massive loopholes, some of which still persist.

Scoop: The White House is preparing an executive order on AI security that omits mandatory model testing and emphasizes voluntary participation by AI companies for cyber defense efforts. W/ @cmsub for @business bloomberg.com/news/articles/…