Kos gives a good take here on the psychological stuff going on behind anti-immigration rhetoric. Threat amplification and authenticity bias: how people get roped in emotionally. Worth reading.
The great own goal of the traditional Right has been trying to outflank a movement that exists to replace it.
Once the Liberal–National brand began borrowing anti-immigration framing, often in the language of crisis, invasion, “too many, too fast”, it stopped doing what major parties must do to govern: aggregate interests and calm the temperature. Instead, it did what insurgents need, sharpen identity, heighten threat, and turn politics into a moral contest.
That’s the trap. When you adopt the challenger’s frame, you don’t neutralise them, you validate them. You teach voters that the challenger’s diagnosis was right all along, and then you invite the obvious follow-up: if it’s really that serious, why vote for the copy when you can vote for the original?
Why it’s so psychologically effective (and so politically deadly)
The psychological engine here is threat amplification plus authenticity bias.
1.Threat amplification
Anti-immigration rhetoric is a classic “high arousal” cue. It triggers anxiety, status threat, and loss aversion. When voters feel that kind of threat, they don’t go shopping for nuanced policy, they go looking for certainty, toughness, and boundary enforcement.
2.Authenticity bias
Under threat, people overweight “authentic” signals. They reward the actor who looks most emotionally congruent with the message, anger with anger, certainty with certainty. A major party trying to “sound tough” often reads as managerial, conflicted, or strategic. The insurgent reads as believing it. In a threat environment, belief beats competence.
So the traditional conservative parties end up in the worst of all worlds:
•They mobilise the insurgent’s issue.
•They shift the conversation onto the insurgent’s turf.
•They fracture their own coalition (metropolitan vs regional).
•And they hand authenticity to the party that has owned the brand for decades.
Meanwhile, the insurgent doesn’t need to win every argument. It only needs to keep the major party trapped in a loop of escalation, respond, harden, lose moderates, double down, lose more moderates, then lose the hardliners anyway.
That’s what an orchestrated replacement strategy looks like. Not beating the old brand head-on, but convincing it to abandon the terrain where it can govern and fight where it can only lose.
If you want a centre-right that can actually win and govern in an urbanised country, it can’t keep playing on the insurgent’s home ground. Because once you accept their frame, you’ve already accepted their verdict, that the old parties aren’t fit to lead, only to follow.