📈 30-Day Weighted Generic Ballot Average 🔵 Democrats: 49.9% 🔴 Republicans: 42.8% Democrats are approaching 50% support nationally while Republicans remain in the low 40s. Current environment: ~D 7 Polls weighted by sample size and pollster quality. Data through June 11.

The New York Times finds that Trump is losing ground with white working class voters in 2026 compared with 2018. Link to article: nytimes.com/2026/06/13/us/po…

“Mr. Trump’s approval on the economy has dropped across practically every group. But his cratering support among a loyal demographic that has served as the foundation of his political coalition for a decade has the potential to be among the most consequential developments of 2026” nytimes.com/2026/06/13/us/po…

The disconnect is in the fundamentals. 2018: • Trump apprv: -10 • Economic conf: 5 to 10 • Inflation: ~2% • GCB: D 8.4 2026: • Trump apprv: -16 • Economic conf: -45 • Inflation: ~4% • GCB: D 6 The polling looks like 2018. The fundamentals look much worse for Reps.

No approval yet from Iran, but Trump claims deal to be signed tomorrow, and threatens Iran with nuclear annihilation if talks don’t lead to desired results.

Beef Prices to Soar As Major Meat Packager Announces 2 Plant Closures Today, The 6th and 7th This Spring. JBS Meat Packaging Plant Closure Just Announced Layoffs - 1500 Pennsylvania / Undisclosed Memphis Tyson Foods – Lexington, NE (Beef processing plant): Permanently closed around January 20, 2026. Capacity: ~5,000 head/day. Impact: ~3,200–3,212 layoffs. This was one of the largest plants; part of broader beef division losses ($291M prior year, projected $400 - $600M losses in FY2026). Significant blow to a town of ~10,000. • Tyson Foods – Amarillo, TX: Reduced to a single full-capacity shift (announced late 2025, effective early 2026). Impact: ~1,700–1,761 layoffs. • Tyson Foods – Rome, GA (Processed foods facility): Closure announced, effective May 31, 2026. Impact: 168 layoffs. • Cargill – Milwaukee, WI (Ground beef processing): Permanent closure; production winding down April 2026, full close by ~May 31, 2026. Impact: 221 layoffs. Operations shifting to other facilities (e.g., Butler, WI). • Intermountain Packing / American Farmers Network – Idaho Falls, ID: Sudden closure on April 3, 2026 (beef and bison processing). Impact: ~150 layoffs, with limited advance notice. • JBS USA: Announced June 12, 2026, permanent closures of: • Beef processing facility in Souderton, PA (near Philadelphia). • Value-added processing plant in Memphis, TN. (Exact job impacts not fully detailed in initial reports, but adds to ongoing sector pressure.)

“We’re raising alarm bells right now,” - American Petroleum Institute CEO Mike Sommers “…The oil market can’t run down to the last drop, like your car can. Below a certain threshold, pipelines can’t maintain pressure and refineries can’t deliver all the various fuel grades their customers demand…. ..Once you get to that point, then you’ll see prices shoot up,..”

JUST IN: 🇮🇷🇺🇸 Iran's Foreign Ministry says US-Iran deal will not be signed tomorrow.

🛢️The oil market now has a deadline: end of July 3 buffers have kept crude under $100 through the worst supply disruption in history. ING says all 3 run out at roughly the same time. Regular readers will recognize every one of them. 1️⃣China China's buyer strike imports at the lowest since 2017, refinery runs slashed, drivers switching to EVs rather than pay war prices. But Beijing started tapping its strategic reserves last month. The strike is now running on stored barrels. Stocks, not flows. The clock is visible. 2️⃣ US exports US crude exports are running 1.8M bpd above last year record highs. The catch, per ING: those exports come from INVENTORY, not new production. Cushing is near operational lows. Watch for the political risk nobody prices: a US export intervention if domestic tightness bites. 3️⃣the SPR The US strategic release ends by late July with the reserve already at 1983 levels. After that, no government cushion, peak summer demand, and a market ING says is in deficit all quarter. Three buffers, one expiry date. ING's path: Brent averages $110 in Q3, spiking $120–130 if Hormuz stays shut past July. And one detail that should stop you cold: ING floats buyers eventually paying IRAN tolls for safe passage. From blockade to toll booth that's how chokepoints monetize. None of this is new to this feed: the buyer strike, the export drain, the SPR clock I covered each as it built. What's new is convergence. August oil will be decided by whoever blinks first: Tehran, Washington, or Beijing's inventory managers. My latest analysis on oil prices is in the below comments👇

🇮🇱 Israel publicly rejects core terms of the US-Iran deal, before it's signed. With Trump hours from announcing an agreement with Iran, Defense Minister Katz declared Israel will not withdraw from security zones in Lebanon, Syria, or Gaza. He said Israel must retain the ability to strike Iran independently and has ordered the IDF to prepare for it. Iran has demanded the deal include a full end to Israeli operations in Lebanon. A Trump official didn't mention Lebanon at all. The deal isn't signed yet and Israel is already rejecting its terms. Writer: Oliver

If Israel isn’t agreeing to items pertaining to them, this will make it more difficult for the deal to hold up.

Jeremy Scahill from @DropSiteNews tells @BreakingPointsN that the Iranian negotiation team added senior psychologists to review draft communications to Trump because they legitimately believe Trump is suffering from mental illness. Other countries are also concerned. Watch

🚨 NEW: Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi told State TV the emerging U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding is a roughly 1.5-2 page, 14-point document that has been negotiated for more than two months and reviewed line by line by Iran’s Supreme National Security Council and military leadership. 🔸According to Araghchi, the first stage includes: ➤ A formal end to the war on all fronts, including Lebanon ➤ A commitment that neither side will initiate a new war or use threats and force ➤ The lifting of the U.S. naval blockade ➤ A framework for the release of Iran’s frozen assets ➤ The Strait of Hormuz is addressed in the memorandum, with Araghchi saying Iran’s future management of the waterway “will be different from the past” and that services there “will no longer be free.” The arrangement for the 60-day period will be settled by the MoU itself, but other details may be finalized during the follow-on negotiations. ➤ Sanctions relief and reconstruction are raised as part of a reconstruction and economic development plan, but Araghchi says the full mechanisms on the matter will be agreed during later negotiations. 🔸 The Second Stage: ➤ Would consist of 60 days of negotiations toward a final agreement, with the possibility of extension by mutual consent. ➤ Araghchi says those talks will aim to resolve the nuclear file, including uranium enrichment and Iran’s stockpile of 60% enriched uranium. ➤ He says the negotiations will also address the broader issues raised in the memorandum, including sanctions relief, the reconstruction and economic development plan, arrangements related to the Strait of Hormuz, and other technical details. 🔸 On Hormuz (and Oman and China): ➤ He says Iran and Oman, as the two sovereign states bordering the strait, will continue to oversee its security and administration. ➤ Araghchi suggested that services in the Strait of Hormuz that have historically been provided free of charge, including maritime security and safe passage, the designation and maintenance of shipping lanes, environmental protection, and search-and-rescue services, would under a future framework carry fees. ➤ Araghchi says Iran has held close consultations with Oman, which he described as its principal partner on the issue, and that the two sides have reached “good results.” He said joint plans and a joint statement will be announced in the near future. ➤ He also says Iran has held expert-level consultations with other stakeholder nations, including China, noting that roughly 40% of shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is linked to China because of its economic interests. 🔸Araghchi said the memorandum will be signed remotely in a “digital” format, with each side signing separately before a joint announcement, adding that an agreement could be finalized “within the next day or two, or within the next several days.” 🔗 Araghchi’s full remarks on Friday, translated into English by Drop Site News, are below ⬇️

If you notice Lindsay Graham and Mark Levin were violently opposed to Trump when his political career started and only turned when they realized that they could use him to fulfill their own ambitions. If that stops they’ll turn back as quickly.

But we were told a deal with Iran was done.

One year ago, Ohio looked like an easy Republican hold. Today? The polling trend has gone from Husted 5 to a dead-even race, with the momentum continuing to favor Sherrod Brown. If this trend continues, Ohio could become one of the biggest Senate surprises of 2026.

There’s going to be a convergence point in 2028 within the Republican Party. The current iteration of MAGA that is more neocony wont be able to win in 2028.

The likelihood this deal is real is near zero. Iran isn’t capitulating this much and removing all their leverage at this point of the conflict. I call BS on this reporting.

Today, I’m releasing never before seen intelligence revealing new evidence of past US government funding for more than 120 biolabs in over 30 countries, including Ukraine. In support of President Trump‘s Executive Order to end federal funding of dangerous gain of function research around the world, and increase transparency and accountability, ODNI will continue working with partners across the Administration to identify where these labs are, what pathogens they contain, and what “research” is being conducted. odni.gov/index.php/newsroom/…

Cook is often late to pick up on wave environments, usually adjusting in Aug/Sept. I expect more seats to shift toward Dems if current trends continue. Even with redistricting, this map looks closer to an R-environment; something that isn’t reflected in most polling right now.