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Do the Math: Five Mathematical Reasons Trump Beats Harris in 2024 The math doesn’t lie. Trump will win the national popular vote, all swing states and 312 electoral votes becoming the 47th President of the United States. See the five data points and historical analysis that suggests a Trump victory. 1) The current RealClear Politics direction of the country right track / wrong track average of polls at 63.1% wrong track and 26.7% right directions suggests the incumbent party will lose (footnote 1). The Cook Political Report historical analysis (footnote 2) shows that the incumbent party loses the election when they have high wrong track and low right track numbers. Incumbents have lost with an average of 70% wrong track and 24% right track. 2) According to Gallup, Republicans have a stronger party identification with 48% identifying as Republicans or leaning Republican versus 48% for the Democrats (footnote 3). The Republican party is winning the battle for the hearts and minds of voters for the first time in the modern era. 3) Republican early voting rates have significantly increased from 30.5% in 2020 to 36% in 2024 while Democrat rates has fallen from 44.8% in 2020 to 37.9% in 2024 (footnote 4). The Republican disadvantage in 2020 was a key reason for their lose. The former campaign manager for Barack Obama, Jim Messina, said that the early voting figures from Republicans are "a little scary" for Democrats. 4) Republicans have massively increased national and swing state Republican voter registrations by margins that would have changed the outcome of the 2020 Presidential election (footnote 5). Republicans have improved their registrations by 198,006 or 3.92% in AZ which Biden won by only 10,427 votes in 2020, 440,288 or 5.37% in GA which Biden won by only 11,779 votes in 2020, 97,674 or 1.16% in MI which Biden won by 154,188 votes in 2020, 71,734 or 2.98% in NV which Biden won by 33,596 in 2020, 311,587 or 4.06% in NC which Trump won by 74,481 in 2020, 585,957 or 6.4% in PA which Biden one by 81,660 in 2020, and 86,571 or 1.59% in WI which Biden won by 20,608 votes in 2020. In all States except Michigan, these new registered Republicans would have given Trump the edge and the Presidency in 2020. See footnotes 5 and 6. 5) RealClear Politics November 4th average of polls has Trump tied with Harris for the national vote and leading in five of the seven swing states with enough electoral votes to win the 2024 election (footnote 7). In 2016 Trump over performed the polls by 2.5% and in 2020 by 2.9% (an average of 2.7%). When the RealClear Politics average national and seven swing state polls (AZ, GA, MI, NC, NV, PA and WI) are adjusted by this average, Trump wins the national popular vote, the electoral college and all seven swing states. Only tomorrow’s election will tell if the pollsters improved, but their 2020 performance declined over 2016. When these five mathematical points are understood and coupled with the significant Democrat disadvantages on the key issues of inflation, economic performance, immigration, foreign wars and crime, it’s hard to see how Harris can win. #DeSantis2024 #RD24 #DeSantisForPresident #RonDeSantis #NikkiHaley2024 #Trump2024 #Trump #TeamTrump #TrumpVance2024 #PatriotsUnite #HarrisWalz2024 #RFK 1. realclearpolling.com/polls/s…. 2. cookpolitical.com/analysis/n…. 3. news.gallup.com/poll/651092/…. 4. newsweek.com/early-voting-fi… 5. x.com/elonmusk/status/185260… 6. abcnews.go.com/Politics/2024…. 7. realclearpolling.com/polls/p…
2 Nov 2024
Republican early vote now is massively ahead of where it was in 2020. If this trend continues, then @realDonaldTrump will win (and I hope he does)
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Iran is defeated.
Hormuz, Houston, and the Quiet American Victory Many Refuse to Accept The same crowd that told you Donald Trump could never win a primary, let alone a presidency, is back at it again. They insist the Iran war is “lost,” that there will be no deal, that America has somehow stumbled into strategic defeat. They are making the same mistake twice. In reality, the United States has already forced a reckoning the foreign‑policy establishment spent decades avoiding. In this new era, the world finally sees Iran for what it is: a radical regime willing to hold a global artery hostage. And the world is drawing the obvious conclusion, that the twenty‑first‑century economy cannot depend on an oil lifeline controlled at gunpoint. Has no one noticed the tankers quietly diverting toward a different hemisphere, toward what is fast becoming the Gulf of America? As the complaints grow louder that “we need a deal now,” it is worth asking who is doing the complaining. The impatience comes largely from the same voices that never foresaw a U.S. victory over Iran’s gambit in Hormuz, and cannot yet imagine the peace dividend that will follow. They missed the strategic re‑rating of Iran from difficult regional power to systemic energy risk. They missed the quiet migration of tankers toward the Gulf of America. Now they mistake a necessary interval of pressure and bargaining for failure, precisely because they cannot recognize that the fundamentals have already shifted in America’s favor. To wit, any deal he strikes will be judged by the wrong standard if you judge it by the same people who thought the JCPOA was statesmanship. Their benchmark is the agreement that shipped Tehran pallets of cash and sanctions relief while allowing it to keep enriched uranium, ballistic missiles, and regional proxies intact—a deal that subsidized the very regime now firing drones into the Gulf and threatening tankers. That standard is not just misplaced; it is discredited. Measured against that history, what President Trump is chasing is not utopia but correction. It will not turn the Islamic Republic into a Scandinavian social democracy. It will not abolish forever the temptations of coercion in Hormuz. But it can lock in hard, strategic gains. The same critics who cry failure over Hormuz have nothing to say about the victory in Venezuela, where U.S. pressure and engagement helped unlock reserves and discipline a rogue petro‑state. They glide past the several wars Trump has stopped or frozen, because those don’t fit the script in which every Trump move is a prelude to Armageddon. They are equally silent about the quiet alignment with Beijing. China, hardly a natural Trump ally, has made it plain: Iran cannot have a bomb and cannot own the Strait. That matters. When the world’s largest energy importer and the world’s leading navy converge on the same two red lines, Tehran’s room for maneuver shrinks, and America’s long‑term position strengthens, whether the commentariat wants to admit it or not.
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Mark Straton retweeted
Iranian woman in Australia shares her story about escaping the Islamic regime in Iran: “No one is Muslim in Iran. After 47 years of Islamic rule, we all hate Islam. Under Sharia, we can’t have dogs, women can’t sing, and I would be killed for dressing like this. We are peaceful people. We just want normal lives and to live in peace with everyone.” Free Iran from the Islamic regime!
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Mark Straton retweeted
The entire Iran conflict still cost LESS than the Minnesota Fraud. Let that sink in. Time for real accountability in Minnesota.
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Mark Straton retweeted
IRAN WAR UPDATE & WHY THE PRICE OF OIL KEEPS DROPPING The media has not been covering this. According to the U.S. CENTRAL COMMAND, approximately 1,000 commercial vessels have crossed through the Strait of Hormuz in the last two months. Iran has not been able to do anything about it. And commercial traffic through the Strait is slowly increasing. Meanwhile, the U.S. blockade on Iran's use Strait of Hormuz is costing the Iran Regime $500 MILLION per day. The Regime's entire annual budget is about $56 BILLION. The Regime can no longer pay its soldiers or security police. Mass protests against the Regime are now starting up again in cities across Iran, as the people are now sensing the Regime can's do much about this. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has announced that the $24 BILLION in Iranian assets that we have frozen will be used to reimburse and compensate countries in the region Iran keeps hitting with its missiles and drones. The damage Iran has done to airports, power grids, buildings, and infrastructure, as well as casualties inflicted by Iran in the region, will be billed to Iran's account. Iran has been saying any deal Iran strikes with the U.S. hinges on the U.S. unfreezing $24 BILLION in Iran assets. Welp, so much for that idea. This $24 BILLION will be used to compensate Iran's victims in the region. There is no reason for the U.S. to negotiate anymore with Iran's Regime. It's quite cheap for the U.S. Navy to keep patrolling the Strait of Hormuz, escorting ships in and out. Our Navy has to be somewhere. Might as well be there, conducting occasional target practice on whatever is left of Iran's military capabilities. No one fears the Iran Regime anymore. It's proven itself to be a toothless tiger. Meanwhile, the rest of the Arab World has joined with the United States and Israel in an alliance against the Iran Regime, which is now completely isolated. That's pretty amazing. Thanks to President Trump, the rest of the Arab world is now allied with Israel. Who would have thought that possible? We should allow Israel to do whatever it wants to do to the Iran Regime. We should also continue arming the Kurds and pro-freedom groups inside Iran. When Epic Fury started, the prediction was that oil would rise above $200 per barrel. This has not happened. Oil is around $90 a barrel and will continue to drop. The reason we have not seen anything close to $200 a barrel is the United States has ramped up its oil production. Thanks to President Trump, the United States is a net oil and energy exporter. With Trump's arrest of Venezuela's Communist dictator Nicolas Maduro, the United States also now has an oil production partnership with the new government of Venezuela, which as the world's largest oil reserves. Oil production by Venezuela will only continue to increase. Trump has also chased China out of Panama. China is no longer running the Panama Canal. We are. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Kuwait are increasing their pipeline capacity to bypass the Strait of Hormuz, further rendering Iran irrelevant. Only about 20% of Iran's people are practicing Muslims. The strange theocratic ideology that has been imposed on the Iranian people for 47 years is an alien minority force. We can just continue to watch the Iran Regime implode financially under this economic pressure we've imposed. Eventually, the IRGC leadership and Mullahs will receive the Gaddafi treatment.
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Great and accurate assessment. Read it.
Trump’s Trafalgar Moment Trump’s Iran deal is best understood through the lens of Trafalgar: a decisive victory that does not end every conflict, but closes the enemy’s best route to success and reshapes the strategic landscape. By reopening the Strait of Hormuz, blocking Tehran’s path to a nuclear weapon, and cutting off the financial backing of global terrorism, Trump has broken Iran’s core leverage without a wider ground war. The closure and reopening of the Strait has changed the rules of the “great game” in energy security, putting the United States back at the center of global energy markets. Investors should expect critics to pan the agreement as insufficiently decisive, but they should ignore the pedantry: the rules of the game have changed and the forces for complete victory have been set in motion. Nelson’s victory at Trafalgar did not end every battle, but it closed off Napoleon’s best route to victory and set the course of the war. The end of the Cold War did not abolish conflict, but it delivered a peace dividend that reshaped economies. Trump’s deal with Iran stands in that line, a decisive strategic win with far-reaching economic and market consequences. The critics were not satisfied when Maduro fell, and they will not be satisfied now, but history will be, and capital will be too, because a peace dividend akin to the one that followed the end of the Cold War will not be ignored.
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Read why Trump has crafted a total victory.
I am in the camp that believes a deal with Iran will get done. And when it does, oil will drop, interest rates will follow, and a real peace dividend will begin to ripple through the global economy as the Hormuz risk premium comes out of the system. President Trump’s Iran deal is not the end of a war. It is something rarer: a decisive victory that changes the terms of the war. Trump’s Iran deal is a Trafalgar moment: a single, brutal victory that doesn’t end the war, but decides who holds the decisive weapon. In classic Mahanian fashion, it seizes the Strait of Hormuz out of Tehran’s grip and smashing its ability to weaponize the world’s oil supply. The agreement rips away Iran’s most dangerous levers, energy blackmail, nuclear ambiguity and the cash flow that fuels global jihad, even as the regime survives. Critics who demand regime change will howl. But if this deal is completed, it will stand as the moment the balance turned, just as Nelson’s annihilation of Napoleon’s fleet at Trafalgar settled who would command the seas. The peace dividend is not only about cheaper oil. It is about a world in which one of the most dangerous regimes on earth has less money to fund terror and less cover to hide a nuclear program behind constant crises. When the main state sponsor of jihadist violence loses its favorite leverage over global energy and finance, risk premiums fall not just at the pump, but across the entire security and investment landscape.
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Mark Straton retweeted
There it is: 🚨🚨Investigative journalist @laralogan Logan Drops A BOMBSHELL, Trump went after Maduro—knowing Venezuela coordinated with Iran and the CCP and helped overthrow the United States government on November 3, 2020. And the intelligence community covered it all up. In other words: Sidney Katherine Powell VINDICATED ONCE MORE: Precisely why the regime went after her: @SidneyPowell1: “I can hardly wait to present all the evidence we’ve collected on Dominion—starting with the fact that it was created to produce and alter voting results in Venezuela for Hugo Chávez, and then shipped internationally to overthrow governments, including this one the United States government.” Venezuelan Military Intelligence whistleblower CONFIRMS that the Central Intelligence Agency outsources its election rigging software and voting machines [smartmatic] to multiple countries, including the U.S., from Venezuela. "My name is Hugo Carvajal Barrios. For many years, I was a high-ranking member of the Venezuelan regime... …Smartmatic was born as an electoral tool of the Venezuelan regime…I know this because I placed the head of IT of the National Electoral Council (CNE) in his position, and he reported directly to me. The Smartmatic system can be altered-this is a fact. This technology was later exported abroad, including to the United States. Regime operatives maintain relationships with election officials and voting-machine companies inside your country..." REPORT: Dominion deleted 2.7 million Trump votes nationwide. Data analysis finds 221,000 Pennsylvania votes were switched from President Trump to Biden. 941,000 Trump votes were deleted. States using Dominion Voting Systems switched 435,000 votes from Trump to Biden.
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Mark Straton retweeted
For the record. SpaceX, Hayek, and the Progressive War on Wealth Creation The progressive left clings to the fantasy that wealth is manufactured by the state and its pet technocrats rather than by entrepreneurs who risk their own capital to create real value. In their mythology, government planners are the heroic “designers” of prosperity, while the private sector is a problem to be taxed, regulated, and morally lectured. As Hayek warned, “the more the state ‘plans’ the more difficult planning becomes for the individual,” and progressives are determined to make individual planning all but impossible. Their entire project rests on a basic fraud, confusing redistribution with creation. Social-democratic and socialist progressives boast about “fairness” and “equity,” but their toolkit is nothing more than confiscation and reallocation, slicing the same pie thinner while pretending they’ve baked a new one. Hayek’s point that “there is all the difference in the world between treating people equally and attempting to make them equal” goes straight over their heads, they weaponize the latter to justify endless expropriation from those who actually produce. The manufactured outrage on the progressive left over the SpaceX IPO is not about fraud, abuse, or failure, it is about their ongoing indoctrination campaign to portray success, risk-taking, and genuine wealth creation as moral crimes. A private company goes from “10 percent chance of success” to one of the most valuable enterprises on earth, and their instinctive response is not admiration or curiosity, but rage that such achievement is even allowed to exist. They see Elon Musk’s trillionaire status not as the byproduct of extraordinary innovation and execution, but as a kind of cosmic theft that must be punished by the tax state. This is entirely consistent with the broader progressive project, socialize resentment, demonize entrepreneurial gains, and condition the public to believe that any concentration of wealth outside the state is inherently illegitimate. Hayek saw this coming decades ago when he warned that central planning steadily erodes the scope for individual initiative, because the logical end of their ideology is a public that no longer dares to think in terms of independent ambition or long-term wealth building. Progressive leaders feed this mindset daily, insisting that “rigged” markets and “oligarchs” are the problem, while cleverly leaving the state, and its favored constituencies, as the only acceptable repositories of power and resources. Their reaction to SpaceX is a case study in this pathology. A company that has slashed launch costs, expanded human access to space, and built critical strategic infrastructure is reduced in their rhetoric to a symbol of “inequality” and “greed,” precisely because it exposes how much more effective decentralized, risk-taking capital can be than bureaucratic planning. The message encoded in their fury is clear, do not build, do not risk, do not aspire, unless it is under the watchful, confiscatory eye of the state. $SPCX
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Mark Straton retweeted
HCR 2001 will be on the Arizona Ballot. 1. Proof of citizenship 2. Voter ID 3. No forigen money in elections 4. To clean up fraudulent mail in voting. Citizens asked , Republicans delivered the AZ SAVE ACT, they people will decide.
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Mark Straton retweeted
Sen. Mike Lee fires back at Cornyn: Senate Republicans must IMMEDIATELY force the SAVE America Act to the floor. “We have majority support — debate it until it passes. This isn’t an attack on Republicans. It’s an attack on voter fraud.” Do you support this Act? A. Yes B. No
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Mark Straton retweeted
Every dollar Elon Musk has made is traceable. Every product sold, every service rendered, every government contract awarded, every share of stock bought or sold. It’s all on the record. You, on the other hand, haven’t built a company, invented a product, or created anything people willingly pay for. You’ve spent the last 14 years collecting a $174,000 Senate salary. Yet somehow you managed to buy a luxury D.C. condo, a $4 million Victorian mansion in Cambridge, and saw your net worth balloon by 150% to $12 million. Everyone knows where Musk’s money came from. The same can’t be said for yours.
Elon Musk just became the world's first trillionaire. The typical American household would have to work more than 11 MILLION years to make Elon Musk's level of wealth. We need a wealth tax.
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Mark Straton retweeted
Ro Khanna says young Americans can’t afford homes, education, childcare, or a decent future. On that much, we agree. But then he proposes more government programs, more guarantees, more subsidies, more taxes, more bureaucracy, and more centralized control. The irony is almost impressive. He lists a dozen symptoms of government failure and concludes that the cure is an even larger dose of government. Humans do this far more often than they should. If government programs created affordable housing, California would be the cheapest state in America. If government spending created prosperity, New York wouldn’t be losing residents while families flee high taxes and rising costs. If government guarantees created wealth, Washington wouldn’t be sitting on $36 trillion in debt. The problem isn’t that America lacks programs. The problem is that Americans are paying for all of them. Young Americans don’t need another politician promising them someone else’s money. They need affordable energy, affordable housing, lower inflation, rising wages, fewer barriers to building businesses, and an economy that rewards productivity instead of dependency. You cannot subsidize your way to prosperity. You have to build it. #AStoneGroove #SilentMajoritySpeaks
.@mcuban have you seen @ericschmidt booed by young graduates preaching how AI will solve all? I am not an AI doomer or accelerationist. I am an AI democratist. But AI is not a panacea for our economic divides. Our elite class is totally out of touch. Young folks see an unfair and lopsided economy where money lenders & speculators are obscenely wealthy while they can't afford a house or education. We are in a new Gilded Age. We need a home guarantee for young Americans by 35 if they work for 7 years. A jobs program for them after school. Childcare at $10 day. Medicare for All so healthcare isn't tied to your work. Free trade schools and public college. An industrial investment bank financing small and medium size manufacturers that make things we currently import. Tech institutes that prepare Americans to use AI in a small business, government agency, or factory floor. An end to data center extraction taking a community's water and jacking up their bills, sucking all the money in the hands of a few tech billionaires. A tax on agentic AI more than human workers. A tax on billionaires and, yes, trillionaires. An end to foreign wars. An end to aid to nations that commit genocide. I call it a Team America agenda.
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Mark Straton retweeted
AZ legislature, at about 2 AM, landed the Arizona Secure Elections Act on the ballot for this fall. It will create the Florida style counting and address verification systems and entrench them in the state Constitution. No more embarrassing 10 day counts and all of the distrust that comes with it. And no need for a gubernatorial signature…
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Mark Straton retweeted
22h
Ask yourself this… If the rich are evil to the Democrats then why don’t the Democrats ever attack George Soros, Reid Hoffman or Neville Roy Singham? Weird, right?
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Good question.
Why aren't we seeing every single Senate Republican bubbly coming out swinging against John Cornyn? All we see is @BasedMikeLee pushing back against the UNIPARTY Republicans. Where is @tedcruz ? Where is @SenRickScott ? Where ya at @SenateGOP ?
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Bernie Saunders and his philosophy are a cancer. What has he ever accomplished and done that improved the lives of Americans or the World? Answer: NOTHING.
Jun 12
History's first trillionaire is a guy who catches rockets out of the sky with chopsticks and beams internet to every dead zone on the planet. Same guy ships cars that drive themselves, humanoid robots for the factory floor, brain chips that let paralyzed people move a cursor with pure thought, and an AI running on a supercomputer his team stood up in months instead of years. And the people crashing out about his net worth are doing it on the app he owns. The same app governments spent years trying to censor. You cannot legislate a rocket into orbit.
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Mark Straton retweeted
🚨 BOOM! Scott Jennings just said what millions of Americans are thinking. For hours, the same people who preach “equity” and “fairness” have been obsessing over Elon Musk’s wealth instead of asking how he built it. Think about it. Electric vehicles. Rocket launches. Satellite internet. Artificial intelligence. Space exploration. The man didn’t win the lottery. He built companies that changed entire industries. Since when did success become a crime in America? Why are the people who claim to support innovation always attacking the innovators? America became the greatest nation on earth because dreamers, builders, inventors, and entrepreneurs were rewarded for taking risks. You don’t get to Mars by thinking small. You don’t change the world by envying the people trying to build it.
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Mark Straton retweeted
If the socialists had their way, Elon would have had his paypal profits taken and redistributed for the greater good. The world would never have seen Tesla, nor SpaceX. And the world wouldn't know it, because they were uncreated, and thus unseen. Imagine the companies that don't exist, because Washington destroyed them before they were born.
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Mark Straton retweeted
No kidding.
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Mark Straton retweeted
Raman gets last place on mail-in votes. Raman gets last place on in-person votes. Then suddenly surges ahead *only* with mail-in ballots submitted AFTER the election. LMAO.
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