I’ve had a number of conversations with folks inside and outside government about the current situation with Anthropic, and here is what I believe to be true: — As we know, Anthropic publicly released its Mythos class models earlier this week under the commercial name Fable. — Fable is Mythos with guardrails. But if those guardrails fail, then you’ve exposed Mythos and its advanced cyber capabilities to people who shouldn’t have them. (Keep in mind that Anthropic itself widely promoted the idea that Mythos was a cyberweapon and needed to be regulated as such. They asked for government regulation of Mythos and championed the guardrails on Fable. If there is a vulnerability — big or small — it is Anthropic’s responsibility to patch.) — A highly credible trusted partner of both Anthropic and the USG who was testing Fable came forward with a jailbreak of those guardrails. The Admin asked Dario to fix the jailbreak or de-deploy the model. Dario refused. — In their blog post, Anthropic defended its decision by saying the jailbreak isn’t serious. That is not what the trusted partner and the USG believe; nor is that kind of minimizing language consistent with Anthropic’s brand as the AI safety company. It’s difficult to fathom how they could claim a jailbreak allowing operability of a cyber weapon could be defined as not “serious.” — In the past, Anthropic has always said that safety must be top priority and taken super seriously. In this case, Anthropic prioritized the continued offering of the consumer model over safety. — In reaction, the Admin issued the export control. The Admin did this reluctantly. It’s been very surprised that Anthropic hasn’t wanted to cooperate with a reasonable safety request (ie fixing the jailbreak issue). Anthropic’s reaction is very much at odds with their branding and ethos as a safe AI research community. — The Admin’s hope now is that Anthropic remediates the safety issue, the export control is lifted, and Fable goes back into general release. The Admin wants all of this to happen as soon as possible. It is frankly bewildered that Anthropic hasn’t wanted to comply with safety requests that it previously said were its highest priority. — Those trying to misdirect and tie this action to the prior DoW/Anthropic issues are wrong. The Admin values Anthropic’s technical capabilities and feels that this issue, while serious, should be easily resolved. The ball is in Anthropic’s court.

Gemini 3.5 Live Translate is now available in public preview on the Gemini API and Google AI Studio. 💬 This model translates speech as it streams, giving developers a blazing-fast, low-latency engine to build some seriously cool audio apps. See it in action 👇

The most basic way AI could blow up imo. I'm not saying it does but this is the most obvious way I can see it happening - Per seat subscriptions are massively subsidized. The flat fee was priced way below what heavy usage actually costs - For real business use you have to move to the API anyway. Data protections, work integrations and compliance officer approval - On the API you pay metered rates, and businesses are burning credits way faster than the per seat pricing ever led them to expect - This is everywhere right now. Internally for us, Codex users, Uber torching its entire 2026 AI budget in 4 months, the Microsoft comments. Just go try an API I shared more on this here: x.com/Shaughnessy119/status/… - And I don't think most businesses have the money to keep paying increasing API rates without a real change to how they operate (caps needed) - Because they have a cheap alternative. They can reach open source models through any aggregator (OpenRouter, Venice, Baseten, Together) and still get strong privacy. Venice private data centers, or E2EE/TEE serving GLM 5.1. More on open source inference provider raises here: x.com/Shaughnessy119/status/… - And the discount is enormous. DeepSeek V4 codes within a hair of Opus on SWE bench at roughly 1/30th the price, and the cheapest open models run closer to 1/100th - Chinese labs open source frontier grade models. The model is the single biggest cost an inference provider has, and they get it for free - This idea dies if China goes closed source. That is actually bullish web2 AI labs, because if everyone is closed you pay up for the best intelligence. China goes closed source if they are tired of giving away an asset and they want the revenue and data flow to train new models - Is this showing up in web2 AI lab revenue yet? No. Revenue is off the charts. Anthropic went from 9B to 47B run rate in five months - So go forward, what happens? - I think revenue slowly starts leaking to the open source inference providers (see Venice usage, OpenRouter's $113M raise, Baseten is raising at $11B or triple its valuation in three months, on revenue that went from $200M to $600M annualized in a single quarter) - It doesnt move overnight, but it caps the labs ability to raise prices, and margins are already deeply negative. OpenAI is reportedly running near negative 122% - With margins that bad there is no cash flow, so the labs are fully dependent on outside capital to buy GPUs, train models, and keep subsidizing usage (I.e. see Google tapping $80b equity sale, granted 30b for employee RSU taxes. Clearly they think Equity is overvalued or you wouldn't sell it) - The break comes when that capital stops. Pricing is capped so margins cant improve, and the moment investors lose conviction on payback, the whole flow reverses - Why would they lose conviction on payback? Back to the start - the inability to improve margins or get businesses to pay more - This is also limiting, if we start making new drugs with AI or create entirely new businesses, you better believe people will pay up to the max for AI usage

Before the week ends, let's acknowledge one of the most INSANE week ever for open AI, with 25 notable open-weight drops across every modality: 🧠 LLMs → NVIDIA Nemotron 3 Ultra: 550B hybrid Mamba-MoE, only 55B active, 1M context, MMLU 89.1. NVFP4 variant claims ~5x throughput on Blackwell. First openly-weighted 550B hybrid Mamba-Transformer, closing the gap with frontier closed models. → Google Gemma 4 12B: fully open dense any-to-any (text/image/audio/video), 256k context, encoder-free, 140 languages, AIME 2026 at 77.5. Shipped with a 23-checkpoint QAT wave (mobile ONNX MLX). Most deployable model of the week. → StepFun Step-3.7-Flash: 198B sparse MoE VLM, ~11B active, SWE-Bench PRO 56.3. Apache 2.0. → Liquid AI LFM2.5-8B-A1B: edge MoE, just 1.5B active, 128k ctx, MATH500 88.8, MLX-ready. Best on-device option this week. → JetBrains Mellum2-12B-A2.5B-Thinking: their first open MoE, near-Qwen3-14B coding at 2.5B active. Apache 2.0. 🎨 Image gen (the surprise of the week) → Ideogram 4: their FIRST-EVER open weights. 9.3B flow-matching DiT trained from scratch. #2 overall behind GPT Image 2, top open-weight model on Design Arena LMArena. Strongest open checkpoint for text-rich images, full stop. It has taste. Still can't believe this is open weights. 🔊 Audio & Speech (a breakout week for open TTS, 4 labs shipped) → Boson Higgs Audio v3 4B: 102 languages, 21 emotions, singing/whispering/shouting, sub-second TTFA. → RedNote dots.tts: the only fully continuous (no codec) open TTS pipeline, Apache 2.0. → Google Magenta RealTime 2: real-time music gen, <200ms latency, text audio MIDI. multimodalart ported it to PyTorch within hours with live ZeroGPU demos. → NVIDIA Nemotron-3.5 ASR: 600M streaming, 17x more concurrent streams vs Parakeet RNNT 1.1B. 👁️ Vision & VLMs → PaddleOCR-VL-1.6: SOTA document parsing at 1B params, Apache 2.0. → Baidu NAVA: 6.3B joint audio-video gen, best-in-class A/V sync, Apache 2.0. 🎬 Video, 3D & World Models → NVIDIA Cosmos3-Super: 64B omnimodal world model coupling action trajectories with video audio gen, for Physical AI. → JD JoyAI-Echo: up to 5-min multi-shot text-to-video on LTX-2.3. → ByteDance Bernini-R VAST TripoSplat (single-image-to-3D Gaussian splats, MIT).

The Spain national football team has arrived in downtown Chattanooga for the FIFA World Cup

Congrats to the @MiniMax_AI team on the release of M3! 👉 A frontier-class open-weight model 👉 1M context window 👉 Native multimodality (image & video)

Congrats to the @MiniMax_AI team on the release of M3! 👉 A frontier-class open-weight model 👉 1M context window 👉 Native multimodality (image & video)

Congrats to the @MiniMax_AI team on the release of M3! 👉 A frontier-class open-weight model 👉 1M context window 👉 Native multimodality (image & video)