EXCLUSIVE: Polymarket inks exclusive partnership with Liga MX, the most popular soccer league in North America, furthering the prediction market’s international soccer presence as the 2026 FIFA World Cup kicks off. “Polymarket is at a real growth inflection point and the biggest global sporting event is happening simultaneously,” says Ari Borod, the firm’s president of sports business development. “The timing is perfect.” Sports are big business for prediction markets, and soccer is the number-one sport outside of the U.S. Polymarket’s international platform has seen $5.4 billion in soccer trading volume over the past year, the company says, though sports weren’t always a top priority. “Polymarket’s origins were really focused on financial markets and politics,” Borod says, but “there’s real demand for being able to trade on sporting outcomes. So we have shifted more focus to that.” Ahead of the World Cup kickoff this week, Polymarket has exclusive partnerships with soccer leagues across the globe: La Liga in Spain, Serie A in Italy, MLS in the U.S., and now Liga MX in Mexico. Prediction-market firms achieved massive growth and cultural salience in the U.S. through major events like the presidential election and Super Bowl. The World Cup marks their largest opportunity yet to prove they have global staying power.

Sports betting stocks rallied today on the CFTC's proposed prediction market rules. “The market is beginning to digest that DraftKings and Flutter could benefit from prediction markets,” @OPReport tells me. “Anything that provides a reasonable path to total addressable market expansion for DraftKings and Flutter in the U.S. is likely to serve as a net tailwind for the stock."

NEW: The 2026 World Cup is set to be the biggest betting event in history, but the business of sports betting faces an uncertain future. Total U.S. sports wagers in Q1 fell 3.1% from a year earlier, according to the American Gaming Association (excluding the new market of Missouri). That's on top of state lawmakers tightening the screws on the industry with responsible gambling measures and rising tax rates, plus a growing betting fatigue in America spurred by rapid sportsbook expansion and prediction markets opening new facets of life to betting. My cover story for next week's print issue of Barron's is online now with insights from @JonathanDCohen1, @SteveRuddock, @Jordan17502511, @joeymaloney, @nigeleccles, and more.