I was once Valleywag, bane of the oligarchs. Now I trade securities as well as tech information. I have skin in the game.

Joined November 2006
296 Photos and videos
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Isaac Asimov: "The fall of Empire is a massive thing and not easily fought. It is dictated by a rising bureaucracy, a receding initiative...
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Nick Denton retweeted
15 Jul 2025
I create a lot of presentations, but hate the way that PDFs are managed online, so have built a tool that outputs them as shareable single html pages with embedded images, that is indexable by search engines and AI. pdf.swysiwyg.com/
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Nick Denton retweeted
Brendan Greeley explains that the eagerness of the world to buy US assets creates a kind of "Dutch disease" for US manufacturers and the US economy. @bhgreeley ft.com/content/95a77bb1-10c5… via @ft
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Some people have pointed to Turkey’s inflation as a warning to other demagogic debasers of the currency. But it was 2018 when Erdogan let the economy and inflation rip. And it was six years later before he paid a political price. Trump’s horizon is to the mid-terms.
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The Trump Pump is the President’s best move. perplexity.ai/search/4f35cc5…
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Six years is an eternity.
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Orthodox contra-cyclical fiscal policy would have the budget deficit close to balance during an economic boom. But with the extension of the Trump tax cuts, the budget deficit hits 7.1% of GDP in 2027, according to the CBO. Quite a pump! (Q&A below.)
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The YU7 seems to be selling well. What does the SUV’s launch say about Xiaomi as a company? Let’s discuss.
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How exactly is Xiaomi “dunking” on Tesla? (Fred Lambert’s words.) perplexity.ai/search/7ebc8cf…
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Cars and consumer electronics are cursed sectors, from an investment standpoint. And Lei Jun’s Xiaomi is in both. But the case remains: Xiaomi is in the manufacturing technology business, and phones and cars were just the categories it began with. perplexity.ai/search/8e30dbc…
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This price on an Adams victory — in the New York City mayor’s race — seems cheap. Surely Cuomo was beaten badly enough to drop out. And then Adams gets much of the Black vote, the more conservative Jews and white ethnics — as well as business interests behind him.
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Nick Denton retweeted
China's Electric Vehicle Factories Have Become Tourist Hotspots Thousands of people are signing up to see the highly automated assembly lines of Chinese EV brands like Xiaomi and Nio. wired.com/story/china-electr…
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Now down to 16%.
16 Jun 2025
polymarket says 25% for Tesla launching robotaxi before July. wdyt @wholemars
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So… Trump joins in on Israel’s beating of Iran, despite the flak from his America First faction. Unexpected. What happened?
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One factor: that slovenly military parade. Only a quick military victory can wipe away that embarrassment.
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Interesting that car makers’ mass production expertise can be applied across other sectors. During WW2, the auto industry generally focused on tanks and armored cars, and related vehicles. Now the boundaries of the auto industry stretch to rockets, batteries, electronics — and soon enough, robots.
17 Jun 2025
Inspired By Ukraine War, Europe Is Developing Shahed-Style One-Way Attack Drones European missile-maker MBDA is enlisting an automotive manufacturer to ensure the kamikaze drones can be rapidly built in mass. Story: twz.com/air/inspired-by-ukra…
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What do people here on X know that outsiders don’t? That there is a well-spring of right-wing American hostility to Israel. Trump will pay a domestic political price for any conflict with Iran. (So maybe last night’s war hysteria, and oil spike, was overdone.)
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This sounds like the anecdote that starts the chapter on the reunification of China: Taiwanese social-media marine acknowledges defeat.
This is an absolutely astonishing interview by “the Boss”, Taiwans most notorious YouTuber. He recently went to China to stream his impressions. “I used to be a professional soldier. Let me tell you…if China invades it’s all over. Bye. The US is planning to use the Ukraine model. They’ll provide gear. But not a single American soldier will be dying for Taiwan. They’ll just wanna get their people out. By the way, the gear they sell us is just crap. Whatever it is they don’t want they offload on Taiwan. They don’t sell us anything actually up to date. We are still buying switchblade drones…everyone knows they’ve been superseded by quadcopters. So what should we do? Do what I’m doing. Come over to China and get to know the other side like I’m doing. There is zero necessity to fight. Brothers can argue with brother but we are still one family. They celebrate Moon festival just like us, get red envelops at Chinese new year just like us. In America they celebrate Christmas. Do you celebrate Christmas? If we ask nicely the Chinese will share their technology with us. We can build good basic infrastructure again. Nuclear plants too. They won’t rip us off. Look at ECFA? [that’s a favorable tax deal the PRC negotiated with the ROC under President Ma and never withdrawn despite subsequent hostile administrations.] We make money thanks to ECFA but the American always rip us off. They are always asking what are you buying from us today? Yet they still owe us US$20 billion USD in paid-for weapons!” Boss has broken every last taboo. All the more amazing since just a few years ago he was a pro-Tsai DPP Stan. All I can say this he’s had a few political twists and turns but it’s never seemed inauthentic because he’s the avatar for a certain Type of Guy and in lockstep with their political sentiments. He’s basically the straight talking marine. And from what I can see his stream in Shanghai is basically a string of expletives and pointing out of stuff they have in China. “Motherfucker! DPP lies to us! Their high speed rail has proper backrests! Shit! Look at this robot making my cocktail! WTF…this is some good basic infrastructure! (Etc etc)” I can tell you this is almost certainly a sign that the upstart 3rd party TPP is going to go straight from more suspicious of China than the KMT to the biggest bunch of pandahuggers possible on the Taiwanese political spectrum.
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