Wish I'd seen this post sooner, but worth reading: how killing Ayatollah Khamenei sent Iran into a death spiral and forced them to back down in the face of American war.
"B-b-but Mojtaba Khamenei is even MOAR of a hardliner!" Nope. Doesn't matter. Ali Khamenei's power and authority came from the fact that he was in Ruhollah Khomeini's inner circle, was persecuted by the Shah, and helped overthrow the Shah in 1979. He was a war veteran who commanded authority because of his central role in the Islamic Revolution. Mojtaba Khamenei was not even ten years old when the Islamic Republic was formed. He's a dipshit nepo baby who has no respect from the IRGC.
There's a reason why the English Commonwealth collapsed within two years of Oliver Cromwell's death. Richard Cromwell, who succeeded Oliver as Lord Protector, was politically identical to his father. But Oliver Cromwell was a celebrated general who had united England, Scotland, and Ireland under his rule. Richard Cromwell was a retard who never even served in the army and was respected so little he was initially passed over for parliament when his father became Lord Protector. Richard commanded no respect from the military and the first parliament elected after he took office openly despised him. He was seen as so feckless and weak that the army went over his head to dissolve the Commonwealth and wasn't even arrested, just told to go away.
There's a reason why the Soviet Union grew internally weaker as actual revolutionaries died of old age. Mikhail Gorbachev was the first Soviet premier to be born a Soviet citizen. Anti-democratic regimes founded in revolutionary fervor maintain their stability only so long as their leaders wield symbolic authority. Wiping out the remainder of the "Class of '79" has ended Iran as a credible power.
Trumps going to keep killing people until they negotiate
The Ayatollah was a consistent veto on any breakthrough
It will be impossible to replace him with someone who has the same authority
He was the last divine monarch with a legacy carried from before modernity which sees the replacement of monarchs with a vast scalable bureaucracy (unless you have robust market institutions to run things)
Khomeini was a leader on paper the Iranian guard has the hard power. He only wielded as much power as he did because of his entrenched cultural position.
It’s the same situation in Thailand. The previous King ruled in name only but was still an important figure for green lighting the transitional governments put up by the military junta. When he died in 2016 the new king did not have the cultural authority to validate the Junta which increased pressure on a democratic transition.
Without Khomeini and his circle they will eventually find someone in the Iranian Guard who is willing to negotiate. Similar to Venezuela changing the leadership without changing the actual regime which makes for an easier transition.
The guard is unlikely to voluntarily hand over power to their oppositions after murdering their families and facing prospects of prosecution.
The question is will we need the Iranian guard to negotiate or will the Kurds and some Iranian military factions or militia finish force their hand.
It seems unlikely anyone could challenge the Iranian Guard without US ground troops helping.
The easiest would be for the Guard to negotiate and negotiate fast or they’ll find themselves in a similar position as Hamas. Dying slowly and losing leverage.
This isn’t going to be World War Three. The entire Middle East has turned on Iran. The region doesn’t need to retreat into fundamentalism like the colonial age when they got humiliated and all Islam had to compete on was “moral superiority”
Saudi Arabia is modernized. Now Arabs know they can compete, they have more confidence. The people in the Middle East want to be strong and prosperous not weak and poor.
We’re entering a new political reality and I’m excited to move on from the last one. Russia and China used Iran as long as they could and know how to cut loose a dead weight. If we’re lucky it will even end with the Russia wrapping up the Ukraine war since they’ve lost more allies.