Some more thoughts on the character of conflict….
On the Land. On a division frontage at any one time there will be hundreds of surveillance drones watching every sector of the battlefield. These will be backed up by teams of operators using attack drones. Queued on to target, resistant to electronic warfare or fibre optic controlled they will launch, hunt and strike targets. 1000s of drones a day. First Person View, dropper drones and bombers operating 10s of kms away from the front line, every hour of every day of the year.
In the Maritime. Patrols of Unmanned Surface Vessels control the Black Sea. Armed with standoff systems they can operate for days at a time at 1000s of nautical miles identifying, queuing and striking surface targets with ease. Relatively small systems taking on and defeating major capability platforms.
In the Air. 100s of long range jet or propeller driven drones can now fly in formation, overwhelm (or strike) sophisticated enemy air defence systems and defeat targets in depth of conventional weapon systems.
So what.
Imagine technology that was increasingly equipped with sophisticated data terrain mapping systems, target identification software and artificial intelligence.
Allowing uncrewed systems to travel to their operating area, identify, select, hunt and strike target’s either autonomously or with the requirement for a human in the loop.
This technology is available now. Imagine this not with ten or twelve drones but 100s and 1000s across all domains. Resistant to electronic warfare, or controlled through fibre optics and equipped with stand off systems (missiles, torpedoes, mines or other drones). Systems thinking for themselves within parameters.
There are serious implications for this way of warfare but we must embrace it. Disaggregated small platforms that can launch drones to work in conjunction with sophisticated 5th Gen systems that can independently find and strike targets on mass. The lessons from Ukraine are applicable now and have huge relevance for every theatre of war: imagine an unmanned surface vessel screen 1000s of nautical miles in front of the aircraft carrier, a wave of drones ahead of an infantry assault or 1000s of drones roaming the deep battle striking targets on their own accord.
In scenarios other than war, imagine costly counter terrorism strikes replaced by simplistic but lethal drones, intelligence collection or shadowing ships conducted by multiple unmanned surface vessels, or costly helicopter resupply being replaced by heavy lift drones.
On land, in the air and at sea the character of warfare has changed and AI and Quantum will rapidly and radically speed this up.
If I were to be provocative, the future of conflict may not only be about equipping the soldier, the sailor or the airman to fight more effectively but equipping and enabling the technology to fight for you.
When it comes to ROE and indeed the morals and ethics of conflict there are real implications to be considered, but whether we like it or not, this is the new way of warfare, and we have an obligation not only to lead in this space to defend our freedoms and that of our allies, but to help define and implement the guardrails for its future use.
More to follow this week with some insights on land, maritime and the air.