Joined April 2013
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20 Aug 2024
Should $DBRG Digitalbridge be taken private? CEO Ganzi has mentioned how private multiples are at least 2x public comps. Maybe a full take private by IFM?
100% Yes
0% No
11 votes โ€ข Final results
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Saam retweeted
Net institutional positioning is defensive until Monday, next week -- the hedge unwind comes thereafter. Put Buy and Call Sell hedging has been providing a systemic market bid to option market makers' hedge imperatives since the Iran special military operations. That looks to end after Monday next week.
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๐Ÿšฉ $FISV
Fiservโ€™s turnaround must be going swell. $FISV named Mike Lyons CEO just over a year ago and tasked him with digging into its issues and driving a turnaround. He held his coming out party Investor Day a month ago. Today he leaves for Truist. Nothing to see here; move alongโ€ฆ
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21 Jul 2023
We help ensure the safety of underground storage facilities, including salt caverns! The National Strategic Petroleum Reserve uses salt caverns thousands of feet underground to store oil. Salt is impermeable to oil and gas, making it ideal for storage. #PHMSAFactFriday
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Your reminder that the standing bid from Irth capital for @PapaJohns is now 47% above the current share price. $PZZA
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With AI taking over industries now It seems insurance will have the most leverage in terms of adoption Software and comms probably can deliver the most impact on margins and P/L given their cost of labor $IGV could become interesting
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Saam retweeted
It means that the tail that used to wag the dog might not have the same sort of wagging affect that it did for decades prior. This is not good news for Bonds. Just last month, Blackrock came out and said the same..
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Saam retweeted
I am going to be noisy about this - the Fed is concerned about inflation - rate of change - not price level. If higher energy price level doesn't feed higher rate of change (or only moderately impacts) in wages, services, etc. the Fed is fine with that.
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$HPQ hovering around $19 despite 5 downgrades from the Street... yet Board is off to a strong start on repurchases. Investor Day in April CEO announcement... tick tock
Replying to @StanphylCap
The sell-side (& short-term oriented buyside) has driven $HPQ down to 6x earnings (with a 7% dividend) on the basis that "the price of memory has reached a permanently high plateau" (to quote Irving Fisher). I'm taking the other side of that. I wonder if an acquirer might too.
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Alright, what's goin on here? $MKTX
I used to follow $MKTX $TW closely but not for about a year or so. Has anyone kept up? Couple quick questions. DMs are open. Thank you!
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buyers $MKTX Sept 170 185Cs
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$LESL fundamentals were indeed improving
$LESL are fundamentals improving here or is it going to be taken out?
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$Lesl just printed a 6.6% SSS increase YoY with GM expanding like 400 bps YoY and back to โ€˜24 levelsโ€ฆ Yes itโ€™s a low rev quarter but holy moly what a chance from last Q. If theyโ€™ve got this figured out and can drive some growth with a consumer tailwindโ€ฆ.
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Mag7 getting more expensive and exโ€”Mag7 lessโ€ฆ $SPY $SPX $QQQ
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Saam retweeted
$BWIN Q1 2026 earnings: Acquisition Fuels Top-Line Boom, But Dilution Crushes Earnings Growth Baldwin delivered a massive 29% surge in Q1 revenue to $532.2 million, entirely fueled by the January closing of the CAC Group partnership. However, the cost of this growth is staggering. Beneath the optical top-line acceleration, core profitability is decelerating. Adjusted EPS actually fell 3% YoY to $0.63 as a 40% jump in share count and a 31% spike in interest expense erased all $137.2 million of Adjusted EBITDA. Furthermore, reported organic growth collapsed to just 2%. While management points to a 'normalized' 9% organic growth figure, the massive gap suggests underlying friction in the legacy business. The integration is moving fast, but investors are paying a steep price in near-term dilution and negative cash flow. Full article with charts - link in bio ๐Ÿ‚ ๐๐ฎ๐ฅ๐ฅ ๐‚๐š๐ฌ๐ž โ€ข ๐Œ&๐€ ๐„๐ฑ๐ž๐œ๐ฎ๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐š๐ง๐ ๐’๐ฒ๐ง๐ž๐ซ๐ ๐ฒ ๐‚๐š๐ฉ๐ญ๐ฎ๐ซ๐ž โ€” The CAC Group integration is materially ahead of schedule. Management claims 80% of targeted 3-year expense synergies are already actioned, with revenue cross-sell wins materializing faster than anticipated. โ€ข ๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐š๐ฅ๐ข๐ณ๐ž๐ ๐†๐ซ๐จ๐ฐ๐ญ๐ก ๐“๐ซ๐š๐ฃ๐ž๐œ๐ญ๐จ๐ซ๐ฒ โ€” Management states that 'normalized' organic growth, inclusive of the new January partnerships, is running at 9%. They are guiding to exit 2026 at a double-digit organic growth run rate. ๐Ÿป ๐๐ž๐š๐ซ ๐‚๐š๐ฌ๐ž โ€ข ๐„๐š๐ซ๐ง๐ข๐ง๐ ๐ฌ ๐ƒ๐ข๐ฅ๐ฎ๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐ข๐ฌ ๐’๐ž๐ฏ๐ž๐ซ๐ž โ€” Despite a 21% jump in Adjusted EBITDA, Adjusted EPS dropped 3%. The share count skyrocketed from 69.3M to 96.8M, proving the CAC deal was highly dilutive in the near term. โ€ข ๐…๐ซ๐ž๐ž ๐‚๐š๐ฌ๐ก ๐…๐ฅ๐จ๐ฐ ๐„๐ฏ๐š๐ฉ๐จ๐ซ๐š๐ญ๐ž๐ฌ โ€” Adjusted free cash flow reversed from positive $25.8M in 25Q1 to negative $0.2M this quarter, heavily pressuring the company's ability to organically deleverage or execute its previously touted $250M share buyback. โš–๏ธ ๐•๐ž๐ซ๐๐ข๐œ๐ญ: โšช Neutral. The CAC Group deal successfully transformed Baldwin into a larger platform, but the aggressive debt and equity issuance means the business must execute flawlessly. Shrinking EPS and evaporating cash flow limit their margin of error. ๐Š๐ž๐ฒ ๐“๐ก๐ž๐ฆ๐ž๐ฌ ๐ŸŸข ๐‚๐€๐‚ ๐†๐ซ๐จ๐ฎ๐ฉ ๐ˆ๐ง๐ญ๐ž๐ ๐ซ๐š๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐˜๐ข๐ž๐ฅ๐๐ข๐ง๐  ๐„๐š๐ซ๐ฅ๐ฒ ๐‘๐ž๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ฅ๐ญ๐ฌ [NEW] The massive 29% revenue jump was heavily concentrated in the January partnerships, led by CAC Group. Management confirmed that integration is meaningfully ahead of plan with 80% of expense synergies actioned. This is a critical driver for reversing the margin compression seen this quarter. ๐Ÿ”ด ๐‘๐ž๐ฉ๐จ๐ซ๐ญ๐ž๐ ๐Ž๐ซ๐ ๐š๐ง๐ข๐œ ๐†๐ซ๐จ๐ฐ๐ญ๐ก ๐‚๐จ๐ฅ๐ฅ๐š๐ฉ๐ฌ๐ž๐ฌ [NEW] Management claims 'accelerating earnings power,' yet the reported data contradicts this: official organic growth decelerated sharply to just 2% from 10% a year ago. Even though management provides a 'normalized' 9% figure, the massive 700 bps gap indicates that either legacy business lines are dragging significantly, or the methodology for excluding divestitures and first-12-month M&A revenue is masking underlying churn. ๐Ÿ”ด ๐Œ&๐€ ๐ƒ๐ข๐ฅ๐ฎ๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐Ž๐ฎ๐ญ๐ฉ๐š๐œ๐ž๐ฌ ๐„๐๐ˆ๐“๐ƒ๐€ ๐†๐ซ๐จ๐ฐ๐ญ๐ก [NEW] Decelerating/Reversing. Baldwin delivered an impressive 21% growth in Adjusted EBITDA ($137.2M). However, this failed to reach the bottom line. Weighted average diluted shares surged 40% (to 96.8M) and interest expense climbed 31% to $38.9M. This capital structure burden caused Adjusted EPS to shrink 3% YoY, completely neutralizing the operational gains of the acquisition. ๐ŸŸข ๐€๐ˆ & ๐“๐ก๐ž $๐Ÿ‘๐/๐Ÿ‘๐ŸŽ ๐‚๐š๐ญ๐š๐ฅ๐ฒ๐ฌ๐ญ ๐๐ซ๐จ๐ ๐ซ๐š๐ฆ Management continues to advance its '$3B/30 Catalyst' transformation program. In response to macro concerns regarding AI disintermediation, Baldwin is explicitly infusing artificial intelligence and business process optimization into its workforce to elevate the platform. Transformation costs associated with this program hit $3.0M in the quarter (up from $0.5M a year ago), representing near-term pain for long-term margin defense. ๐Ÿ”ด ๐…๐ซ๐ž๐ž ๐‚๐š๐ฌ๐ก ๐…๐ฅ๐จ๐ฐ ๐“๐ฎ๐ซ๐ง๐ฌ ๐๐ž๐ ๐š๐ญ๐ข๐ฏ๐ž [NEW] Reversing. Adjusted free cash flow dropped from positive $25.8 million in 25Q1 to negative $0.2 million in 26Q1. Combined with an operating cash flow drain of $6.1 million (driven by higher assumed premiums and receivables), working capital needs are starving the company of cash. This severely complicates the aggressive $250M share repurchase narrative established in the Q4 call. ๐Ž๐ญ๐ก๐ž๐ซ ๐Š๐๐ˆ๐ฌ ๐€๐๐ฃ๐ฎ๐ฌ๐ญ๐ž๐ ๐„๐๐ˆ๐“๐ƒ๐€ ๐Œ๐š๐ซ๐ ๐ข๐ง: 25.8% Decelerating. Down 170 basis points from 27.5% in the prior-year period. This indicates near-term negative operating leverage as the company absorbs the cost structure of the CAC Group before full revenue and back-office synergies can be realized. ๐ˆ๐ง๐ญ๐ž๐ซ๐ž๐ฌ๐ญ ๐„๐ฑ๐ฉ๐ž๐ง๐ฌ๐ž: $38.9 million Accelerating. Up 30% from $30.0M a year ago. The expanded debt load to fund aggressive M&A is putting a hard ceiling on net income generation, turning a $101.3M operating loss into a pre-tax hole. ๐‚๐จ๐ง๐ญ๐ข๐ง๐ ๐ž๐ง๐ญ ๐„๐š๐ซ๐ง๐จ๐ฎ๐ญ ๐‹๐ข๐š๐›๐ข๐ฅ๐ข๐ญ๐ข๐ž๐ฌ: $335.4 million Exploding upward. Total earnout liabilities (current long-term) spiked from $23.3M at the end of 2025 to over $335.4M in 26Q1. This massive future cash obligation limits balance sheet flexibility over the coming years. ๐†๐ฎ๐ข๐๐š๐ง๐œ๐ž ๐…๐˜๐Ÿ๐Ÿ” ๐Ž๐ซ๐ ๐š๐ง๐ข๐œ ๐†๐ซ๐จ๐ฐ๐ญ๐ก ๐„๐ฑ๐ข๐ญ ๐‘๐š๐ญ๐ž: Double-digit run rate Accelerating. Management maintained their qualitative guidance to exit 2026 on a double-digit organic growth run rate. Given the Q1 reported organic growth of just 2%, this implies a massive sequential ramp must occur over the next three quarters. ๐…๐˜๐Ÿ๐Ÿ” ๐‘๐ž๐ฏ๐ž๐ง๐ฎ๐ž (๐๐š๐ฌ๐ž๐ ๐จ๐ง ๐๐Ÿ’ ๐‚๐š๐ฅ๐ฅ): $2.01 - $2.05 billion Accelerating. While not explicitly updated in the Q1 print, the previously guided midpoint of $2.03B implies roughly 35% full-year growth over FY25's $1.5B. Q1's $532M print puts them well on track (accounting for roughly 26% of the annual target in Q1 alone). ๐Š๐ž๐ฒ ๐๐ฎ๐ž๐ฌ๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง๐ฌ ๐“๐ก๐ž ๐Ž๐ซ๐ ๐š๐ง๐ข๐œ ๐†๐ซ๐จ๐ฐ๐ญ๐ก ๐†๐š๐ฉ There is a massive 700 basis point spread between your reported 2% organic growth and your 9% 'normalized' figure. Specifically, which legacy segments are dragging down the reported metric, and why? ๐’๐ก๐š๐ซ๐ž ๐‘๐ž๐ฉ๐ฎ๐ซ๐œ๐ก๐š๐ฌ๐ž ๐•๐ข๐š๐›๐ข๐ฅ๐ข๐ญ๐ฒ In the Q4 call, management stated 'at 8x EBITDA, there is not a better use of capital than buying our own shares.' With Q1 adjusted free cash flow turning negative, what is the realistic timeline and funding mechanism for executing the $250M repurchase authorization? ๐Œ๐š๐ซ๐ ๐ข๐ง ๐„๐ฑ๐ฉ๐š๐ง๐ฌ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐“๐ข๐ฆ๐ž๐ฅ๐ข๐ง๐ž Adjusted EBITDA margins compressed by 170 bps YoY to 25.8%. If 80% of CAC expense synergies are already actioned, when will we see margins inflect positively toward your 30% long-term target? ๐„๐š๐ซ๐ง๐จ๐ฎ๐ญ ๐Ž๐›๐ฅ๐ข๐ ๐š๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง๐ฌ Contingent earnout liabilities surged to over $335M this quarter. Can you outline the cash outflow schedule for these obligations over the next 12-24 months and how it impacts your deleveraging targets?
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looks decent $ADUS @taobanker
BREAKING: $ADUS reports strong Q1 2026 results with 7.7% revenue growth to $363.6M and $25.1M net income. - Adjusted EBITDA up 9.7% YoY to $44.5M - Operating cash flow of $52.4M - Expanded in Indiana with new acquisitions - Personal Care services lead at 77.3% of revenue - 263 locations across 24 states serving 62,750 patients
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Reject $meta embrace tradition
May 1
Meta's DAUs just dipped for the first time since 2021 More charts: a16z.news/p/charts-of-the-weโ€ฆ
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Saam retweeted
Free cash flow race to the bottom.
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โ€œBull markets are born on pessimism, grow on skepticism, mature on optimism, and die on euphoria.โ€ โ€“ Sir John Templeton
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Man what happened to $ATEC? Took a tiny position down 20% already... $ISRG $GMED
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