A lawyer advising on political law, FARA, congressional investigations & white collar defense. Reagan Republican. Zionist. Tweets reflect personal views only.

Joined September 2009
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Robert Kelner retweeted
Right now, as Russians continue to strike #Kyiv with over a dozen of ballistic missiles, the Dormition Cathedral of Kyiv‑Pechersk Lavra — a UNESCO World Heritage site and priceless cultural landmark — has been struck and is burning. A brutal assault on our people and our heritage. This is the true face of Russia’s Orthodox values.
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Sadly, we learned that the Iranian regime was stronger than the protests against it suggested, that its supply of missiles in hardened bunkers was larger than expected, and that its nuclear facilities and underground missile cities were more hardened and resilient than our military seems to have estimated. That doesn’t mean the regime will necessarily survive long, and it doesn’t negate the significant value of our having worn down their military assets, including their nuclear program. But it’s sobering for the US and Israel. As before, much will depend on the Iranian people.
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I agree with Haviv here. Spot on. It’s a bad deal. But for the time being, Israel and the US are both in a safer position than they were in prior to the war. And Trump made a political calculus that was probably right. The war took longer than he anticipated. And the American people have a low tolerance for protracted military operations. With elections looming, and no good deal in the offing, he took the opportunity to stop the bleeding for now. I think the biggest open question is what happens now with Lebanon and Hezbollah. Israel will have to keep fighting, most likely. We made major strategic mistakes along the way. But the world is safer because of how much weaker Iran is today. And with some luck, Iranian patriots will take advantage of that soon.
Everyone will have their take on the deal. Mine is kinda what you'd expect. 1. Trump caved. The early-May naval attempt to break the closure of Hormuz -- Project Freedom -- could have worked. He didn't give it a chance. 2. He may nevertheless have done the right thing from an American perspective. On the larger chessboard, the one where America is curtailing Chinese lines of influence and supply on all fronts, he's gotten everything he needs. Iran's nuclear program is also set back dramatically. And worrying about gas prices come November is an extremely valid concern for an American president. As I argued back in February, the US and Israel weren't fighting the same war. Roughly 80% of each side's war overlapped with the other's. But toward the end, their interests would diverge and America would bow out. And so it was. 3. Israel remains in the region, Hezbollah remains ensconced in Lebanon and committed to murdering us all, Iran remains the same muqawama regime it always was, committed to mass-murder and mass-sacrifice of its own people. The decades-long war between the muqawama ideology and the Jews of Israel continues. 4. Israelis owe the United States a vast and abiding debt of gratitude for what it has done to Iran's missile and nuclear programs. That this finished on America's timetable rather than ours, that it was doing it for its own interests and not ours, these don't diminish the fact that we received from America more than we had a right to ask for. 5. And still, #3 remains true. We fight on. Because that regime is undeterrable, actually wants to destroy us all, and like the Nasserist ideology that once sent army after army at us to destroy us, will require a few more wars and perhaps another decade or two to defeat completely. 6. The new IRGC military dictatorship now in charge in Iran is built to survive catastrophe. But not to govern, reform or build anything of value. Some commentators on the deal have suggested that the most damaging thing you could do to the Iranian regime at this point is send it back to its embittered people to try to govern the peace. I think they might be onto something. It'd be a much safer and happier and more peaceful region if the regime falls from within and a new and better day dawns for the long-suffering people of Iran.
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Really important and interesting. I’m happy to see people like Nadella thinking deeply about this and sharing optimistic paths to the future.
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Thanks, IDF, for taking out a murderer of Americans for us. He’ll never kill another American (or Israeli).
🔴ELIMINATED: Ali Musa Daqduq, a senior Hezbollah commander who held a series of 5 senior positions within Hezbollah. Daqduq played a central role in advancing terrorist attacks and combat operations against Israel and IDF soldiers. In 2007, he orchestrated the kidnapping and murder of 5 American soldiers.
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Robert Kelner retweeted
If any nation ever launches attack drones and rockets into the USA, I would hope and expect the US government to defend us and pound whoever did it. If you don’t want Israel to do the same thing, don’t attack Israel.
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Iran should not retaliate? Iran ordered the strike to which Israel was responding.
🔴President Trump tells Fox News a US-Iran deal is expected to be signed within 2-3 hours, says he told Prime Minister Netanyahu "what the fu*k are you doing?" after the Beirut strikes and urged him against further attacks. Trump added he will ask Iran not to retaliate with missile fire against Israel.
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Oy. I hope and pray he will get this right, but at the moment, the Iranians are really in Trump’s head. They must be laughing hysterically at this post. He is reacting to the Hezbollah rocket strikes on Israel, directed by Iran, exactly as Iran intended. They are trying to drive a wedge between the US and Israel, in order to have the freedom to rebuild Hezbollah, among other bad things. I take solace from knowing Trump hates to lose, and he will feel it viscerally when the world perceives he has allowed Iran to call the shots. So hopefully he will land this properly in the end. I think he probably will. But today is a bad day.
I had to read this twice
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Here’s what to look for in any Iran deal. Are the terms announced? All of them? Are there key issues deferred for later resolution? Any nonpublic provisions or key issues deferred would be troubling. Those would be red flags of serious weaknesses. But I will not jump to conclusions right now. We do need transparency, so everyone can assess whether the deal is real or just a rehash of prior “deals.”
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Robert Kelner retweeted
The Iranian regime, as always, is lying. Iran’s proxy, Hezbollah, is the one that attacked Israel again this morning, completely unprovoked. Hezbollah constantly fires at Israeli civilians. Even after the ceasefire, Hezbollah has not stopped targeting Israelis. It was Hezbollah that launched an unprovoked attack on Israel in March, acting under the orders of its Iranian masters. Israel will not tolerate firing at its territory.
تجاوز صهیونیست‌ها به ضاحیه باردیگر نشان داد آمریکا یا اراده‌ای برای اجرای تعهدات خود ندارد یا توان آن را. با چراغ سبز نشان دادن به رژیم نمی‌توانید امتیاز بگیرید. بازی پلیس بد و پلیس خوب قدیمی شده است. اگر اراده و توان اجرای تعهدات خود را ندارید، سخن گفتن از ادامه مسیر ممکن نیست.
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There are many Russian citizens of Ukrainian descent. Many with family in Ukraine. Several key Soviet leaders were Ukrainian. The ties are deep. Therefore, Ukrainian intelligence penetration of Russia is a certainty. I would guess that incudes very highly placed agents acting out of nationalistic loyalty to Ukraine. I would not be surprised that there are a number of Captain Ramius types (see Hunt For Red October) within the Russian army, navy, and air force. These stories will be told after the war.
I thank all friends of Ukraine and everyone who helps us obtain important information and supports Ukrainian intelligence operations. Our intelligence agencies reported on the results of their work to assess the internal situation in Russia and obtain documents that end up on the Russian leader’s desk. We understand that Putin rarely receives information that is entirely truthful and unvarnished. But even what he sees in the documents that reach him still allows conclusions to be drawn. In particular, the so-called “projected indicators” of Russians’ dissatisfaction with Putin will continue to rise steadily, and he is already being conditioned to accept the idea that this growing dissatisfaction cannot be stopped and that this indicator “will not plateau” by September, when parliamentary elections are scheduled in Russia. As for the level of support for Russia’s ruling party, a steady downward trend is being recorded, which means significantly greater electoral fraud will be needed. They are also reporting a substantial rise in protest sentiment in Russian regions. We believe these reports also do not yet take into account the potential events of June, July, and August, which are bound to further affect the situation in Russia. The entirely justified pressure on Russia over this war will continue and intensify – and it won’t be just our pressure. So by September, Putin will be facing significantly worse indicators. Unfortunately, to all the public and non-public peace proposals we have made, the only response has been words about continuing his war. The internal situation in Russia should convince him of the opposite: that peace is needed. Ukraine is proposing to negotiate a dignified peace. Obviously, the trends will not change, and over time this may mean that an agreement will have to be reached with someone else from Russia – someone who will not shut themselves off from reality. Glory to Ukraine!
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Robert Kelner retweeted
Israeli startup Esh-Tech is unveiling DroneLite — a vehicle-mounted laser system built to kill small drones in seconds. The company says it uses only 4kW of energy, costs far less than current laser or microwave systems, and destroyed 20 drones in tests in Israel last year. First operational version expected in October.
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Our warriors have achieved good results in applying long-range sanctions against important facilities on the territory of Russia and in the temporarily occupied territories of Ukraine. More than 700 kilometers from our state border, in Russia’s Yaroslavl region, SSU warriors struck an oil facility that was important for the reserves of the aggressor state. Warriors of our army reached their targets in Russia’s Tula region – specifically, the Azot plant, whose operations are critical to explosives production capabilities. Air traffic restrictions were imposed at six Russian airports, and overall, since yesterday evening, 28 regions of Russia have been under air raid alerts. There were also hits on the occupier’s military logistics in the temporarily occupied territory of Ukraine. Ukraine is carrying out its plan of long-range sanctions against Russia and the assigned tasks regarding mid-range strikes in response to Russia’s refusal to end this war. We have offered the Russian leadership every possible format for negotiations – and the only response was continued aggression and attempts to expand it. It stands to reason that the war is coming back to where it came from. Ukraine needs peace. Glory to Ukraine!
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Robert Kelner retweeted
In Seinfeld vs Free Palestine, I'm with Seinfeld
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Robert Kelner retweeted
If I cure cancer I will get very rich. And a bunch of people on this site will apparently find my sudden wealth outrageous.
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Robert Kelner retweeted
George Washington is often called the indispensable man. If there were ever an indispensable historian of the American Founding, it was Gordon S. Wood. Mount Vernon mourns the passing of Dr. Wood, a towering historian and generous friend of our institution. To reflect on his remarkable life and work, listen to Dr. Wood's 2017 conversation with Mount Vernon President & CEO Doug Bradburn about his lifelong career as a scholar of early America. Access the podcast: bit.ly/447d5Oq
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Robert Kelner retweeted
The polar opposite of what Iran claims. And strongest and clearest terms used to date. No wishy washy dilution and delay. The real deal…what we would expect from President Trump. In the meantime, the strait is slowly opening on our terms. The blockade continues to strangle.
From WH official on Iran deal: 1. Nuclear material will be destroyed and removed 2. Nuclear program will be dismantled 3. None of their money released until they perform 4. Strait of Hormuz will be open 5. No Iran funding of terrorist groups Official adds: "This is what they agreed to. This is a performance based deal."
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This is everything that’s wrong with the Democratic Party in one tweet (see below). By the way, Elon Musk is an immigrant. Another terrific immigration success story. He’s achieved the American Dream and created immense wealth and tax revenue for America, along with technological progress for the entire world. God Bless America.
Elon Musk just became the world’s first trillionaire. Let’s make sure he’s also the last.
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It was anticipated. It’s the trend overall. The best general AI models are getting better than most task-specific models. The implications are pretty mind boggling.
For medical information, general AI frontier models (Google, OpenAI, Anthropic) outperformed specialized @EvidenceOpen and @UpToDate as assessed by 12 US clinicians, randomized and blinded to which model and extensive testing/benchmarks. This was not anticipated. @NatureMedicine nature.com/articles/s41591-0…
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