I agree with Haviv here. Spot on. It’s a bad deal. But for the time being, Israel and the US are both in a safer position than they were in prior to the war. And Trump made a political calculus that was probably right. The war took longer than he anticipated. And the American people have a low tolerance for protracted military operations. With elections looming, and no good deal in the offing, he took the opportunity to stop the bleeding for now. I think the biggest open question is what happens now with Lebanon and Hezbollah. Israel will have to keep fighting, most likely. We made major strategic mistakes along the way. But the world is safer because of how much weaker Iran is today. And with some luck, Iranian patriots will take advantage of that soon.
Everyone will have their take on the deal.
Mine is kinda what you'd expect.
1. Trump caved. The early-May naval attempt to break the closure of Hormuz -- Project Freedom -- could have worked. He didn't give it a chance.
2. He may nevertheless have done the right thing from an American perspective. On the larger chessboard, the one where America is curtailing Chinese lines of influence and supply on all fronts, he's gotten everything he needs. Iran's nuclear program is also set back dramatically. And worrying about gas prices come November is an extremely valid concern for an American president.
As I argued back in February, the US and Israel weren't fighting the same war. Roughly 80% of each side's war overlapped with the other's. But toward the end, their interests would diverge and America would bow out.
And so it was.
3. Israel remains in the region, Hezbollah remains ensconced in Lebanon and committed to murdering us all, Iran remains the same muqawama regime it always was, committed to mass-murder and mass-sacrifice of its own people. The decades-long war between the muqawama ideology and the Jews of Israel continues.
4. Israelis owe the United States a vast and abiding debt of gratitude for what it has done to Iran's missile and nuclear programs. That this finished on America's timetable rather than ours, that it was doing it for its own interests and not ours, these don't diminish the fact that we received from America more than we had a right to ask for.
5. And still, #3 remains true. We fight on. Because that regime is undeterrable, actually wants to destroy us all, and like the Nasserist ideology that once sent army after army at us to destroy us, will require a few more wars and perhaps another decade or two to defeat completely.
6. The new IRGC military dictatorship now in charge in Iran is built to survive catastrophe. But not to govern, reform or build anything of value.
Some commentators on the deal have suggested that the most damaging thing you could do to the Iranian regime at this point is send it back to its embittered people to try to govern the peace.
I think they might be onto something. It'd be a much safer and happier and more peaceful region if the regime falls from within and a new and better day dawns for the long-suffering people of Iran.