I'm convinced that 99% of success is just the ability to outlast uncertainty. The one who can tolerate the most uncertainty is the one who will eventually win.

software engineering is so different now. hard to remember what it was like even 6 months ago.

i hope it's clear now why open source models are important i've said before i can respect the position around safety but it's completely naive even if you think you have superior morality and should control it someone will kick you out and take control

I genuinely don’t understand this: 1. Google AI Mode has access to tons and tons and tons and tons and tons and TONS of sites that ChstGPT and Claude can’t access 2. If you’re in Chrome it is one million times easier to use the search bar for a query 3. It is objectively better for all local and navigation searches Not using Google anymore is literally just using the internet in a worse way. Not even picking on Signull I’ve seen plenty of “tech forward” people say this. It makes no sense to me.

Cool

AI tokens are under 5% of total expense at the most companies. The panic about exploding AI bills is aimed at the wrong number. What matters is which team returns the most value per token. As agents take on more of the work, whoever runs them is spending real money, usually with no limit and no record of who is burning what. One engineer can point the most expensive model at writing unit tests for a weekend, and you hear about it when the bill arrives. The fix is pretty simple: a loss limit, and a number that ties the spend to what it made. Tokens are capital. Companies still book them as an IT expense. Until you can say what a team got for its tokens, you're value guessing.

Within ~5 years, probably ~5 times as many satellites as rest of world

Counterpoint: everyone pair programs now, with a robot.

This is a bigger trend. Cracks forming fast. Lots of schools are going to fail.

I can’t believe Anthropic comparing their product to nuclear weapons 800 times backfired on them. I am shocked

A fun marketing joyride…until it isn’t.

AI is less popular than ICE or congress. We should wake up and address people's concern outside of tech or we will get @AOC for President instead of AI progress and adoption! And this will be amplified by Chinese government interference to fan the flames and slow US AI progress.

I get it. In my career I've been a part of the wave of disruption that took Systems Administrators from an average ratio of 1:10 (1 admin to 10 machines) to the entire job title disappearing and changing so as to be unrecognizable. This is more intense, and happening more broadly. But that'll settle, and we'll be left with people having adapted the tech to their needs. That's fun! Different, but still fun.

I'm a technology optimist. I’ve spent four decades studying disruptive innovation, from the microprocessor, the internet, mobile phones to OpenAI. I'm certain AI will do 80% of the economically valuable work humans do today, for 80% of all jobs, faster than most believe. The question isn't whether mass underemployment arrives, but whether we have a policy framework ready. Right now we don't.

One piece of advice we got during YC was to explain our company using verbs instead of nouns. Early on, I walked into a meeting and did the opposite: “We’re building a cloud platform for AI” No one knew that that meant, their eyes glazed over. Then I started saying this instead: “We containerize your code and run it on GPUs in the cloud so you don’t have to manage the infra yourself” That clicked way more. Our brains understand verbs because they’re more concrete. If you describe your company using nouns, you risk people not understanding you. And no one buys or invests in things they don’t understand.

People got so mad at me for saying this but it was 100% right

Fable is not actually bumping you to Opus 4.8 bc you tripped a safety filter, but bc the AGI did a deep search into you before you even sent the prompt, and it determined you to be a member of the permanent underclass and it's just doing its job of keeping you there for eternity

LA: Have your agent talk to my agent. SF: Have your agent talk to my agent.

The sooner American politicians are honest with Americans that AI will be used to fuck non-American economies to pay for Americans to be able to chill on UHI the better. I know it’s tempting to make believe that is not the likely end state but the cost of lying is too high. Acknowledge it and then accelerate dominance.

Our Anthropic bill is about to jump from $400K → $1.4M/yr. Not because usage exploded, but because we're about to cross 150 seats. Past 150 seats you're forced into Enterprise tier. Seats stop including any usage, every token bills at standard API rates. At our current run rate that's 3.5x overnight. Unfiltered thoughts on AI spend: 1. We should spend tokens to grow as aggressively as possible. But most people (me included) aren't conscious of what they're spending. 2. Visibility comes first. People see their personal number and they're shocked. I accidentally spent $4,000 in 3 days in Claude Code. 3. For engineering the spend is clearly worth it. Pay for the best model, it saves more than it costs. 4. For a lot of other roles it's questionable. Apps nobody uses, skills someone already built. No ROI. 5. Spend limits are coming. We already require approval for more tokens on our support team. The era of token-maxxing is coming to an end.