Unfortunately,
@drterrysimpson blocked me, but his other account
@terrysimpson can hopefully see my reply🤗
@paulsaladinomd's claim was that the association between LDLc and heart disease is “massively attenuated or not even present” in those who are “metabolically healthy.”
Then the video proceeds to cite data with respect to the “Power of Zero” for those with LDLc >190 mg/dl in an analysis of a MESA cohort here:
pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/3160…
While it is probably a reasonable inference that those with a CAC of 0 are more likely to be “metabolically healthy”, CAC 0 is not the same as "metabolically healthy" nor is "metabolically healthy" super well defined.
Likewise, technically, I wouldn’t say this paper specifically supports Paul’s claim given this paper does not really evaluate an association between LDLc as a continuous variable and CV events in CAC 0; however, it does denote a low incidence of CV events in CAC 0 w/ LDLc >190mg/dl – “incidence rate per 1000 person-years = 4.7; 10-year risk = 3.7%; risk/year = 0.4%”.
Of note, this was a median follow-up of 13.2 years -
@terrysimpson indicates this is "short-term". This is well within a rescan window, and I guess I wouldn’t consider 13.2 years “short-term”.
The paper Paul would likely cite to support the lack of meaningful association with LDLc and CV events in CAC of zero is the Western Denmark Heart Registry Study, replicated in MESA from Circulation in 2023:
pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/3662…
“…a very high LDL-C level (>193 mg/dL) versus LDL-C <116 mg/dL was…not [associated] in those without CAC (aHR, 0.92 [0.48–1.79])”
👉🏻median follow-up is 4.3 years for WDHR, replicated over 16.6 years of follow-up in MESA…
“In the 3,340 individuals with CAC>0, the multivariable adjusted HR per 38.7 mg/dL higher LDL-C was 1.15 (p=0.004) compared to 0.91 (p=0.26) for the 3,361 individuals with CAC=0 (pinteraction =0.02 in fully adjusted model).”
I do think it is true that many providers don’t assess fasting insulin (I personally prefer c-peptide > fasting insulin) which would be a proxy for how “metabolically healthy” someone is to a degree, but I would argue the vast majority of providers look at fasting glucose so this claim from Paul is silly/hyperbole IMO; if fasting glucose is >100mg/dl, most providers are almost always running an A1c in response.
I do think many providers put excessive emphasis on total cholesterol and/or LDLc on a lipid panel as a risk stratification tool – neither of which are generally very helpful for this purpose in light of imaging.
Paul then indicates “In metabolically healthy individuals, a slight rise in your cholesterol because you’re eating more saturated fat and less seed oils, I don’t think there is a shred of evidence in the medical literature to suggest that is going to increase your rate of cardiovascular disease.”
I don’t really think this wording is super precise, but I don’t think most would argue that if LDLc increases but ApoB does not from an incorporated food, there is unlikely a significant increased incidence of CV events.
A subgroup from PESA with optimal CV risk factors demonstrated an association with LDLc and subclinical atherosclerosis, not events (though 94% had CAC 0 -
pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/2924…); a subgroup of MiHeart with optimal CV risk factors failed to find a significant association between ApoB and subclinical atherosclerosis [perhaps underpowered] (
pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/3912…) and likewise, ApoB >120 appears to have no significant association with events in CAC 0 vs ApoB <120 mg/dl over median follow-up of 13.9 years. (
x.com/ApoDudz/status/2037746…).
I think if consuming any specific food that helps to improve/maintain optimal body composition via aiding in satiety and supports energy levels to improve/maintain excellent cardiorespiratory fitness and you have CAC 0, I am not certain that food’s effect on LDLc and/or ApoB is likely meaningfully changing the incidence of CVD over the lifespan of a human with possible rare exception.
Soft plaque is unlikely clinically meaningful in CAC 0 over 6.6 years within the window of rescan:
x.com/ApoDudz/status/1969043…
I would argue minimal CAC is not end-stage or late-stage marker in any pragmatic sense, its subclinical disease that can be treated aggressively depending on age. Minimal CAC offers plenty of time to intervene with excellent prognosis to avoid unnecessary pharmacotherapy for years to decades.
I don’t think Paul technically claimed he was overturning LDL biology or LDL causality in atherosclerosis; I think he was referring to risk stratification.
CAC of 0 generally predicts very low risk within a reasonable scan window within 3-7 years.
x.com/ApoDudz/status/1936266…
“CAC zero tells you where you are today. LDL tells you where you’re going.”
I would say CAC 0 tells you that you likely to have a low incidence of CV events over at least 3-5 years, at which you can rescan and treat minimal CAC aggressively if needed and LDLc doesn't appear to tell you much of anything within this time frame.