Ivan Postevoy

Ivan Postevoy

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p k retweeted

Ivan Postevoy @IPostevoy

18 Nov 2022

This week US retail #fertilizer prices: • High, absolutely no changes from the previous week It's starting to get boring.. NOTE: retail prices differ from producer/trader quotes as they include logistics, storage, etc 1/2

p k

p k @setiriver

18 Nov 2022

RBC estimates for $LXU. Check out the EBITDA est for 22 and 23. Due to ~600M in NOLs and only ~48M annual interest expense. They will generate $377M and 402M cash flow in the next two years. 779M 🤯. Over 70 Percent of their market cap. Street finally starting to figure it out.

p k

p k @setiriver

18 Nov 2022

Clarifying note: They also have annual depreciation ~200M. Slowing down the use of the NOLs. Thus it wont run out till 24.

ALT Make It Rain Money GIF

p k

p k @setiriver

17 Nov 2022

$LXU initiated at outperform. $20 price target at RBC.

p k

p k @setiriver

10 Nov 2022

Retail Ammonia and UAN prices 7 percent below ATH that were set in April. $LXU, $UAN, $CF. Meanwhile $UAN stock price trades at 34 percent below April high. $LXU at 50 percent below April highs. Economics?? 🤷‍♂️ dtnpf.com/agriculture/web/ag…

p k

p k @setiriver

5 Nov 2022

Huge export flows from $CF having an impact on the US UAN market. $CF, $LXU, $UAN. Fun fact: $CF on Earn. call: world’s largest nitrogen plant Donaldsonville can “export everything we produce there if needed” and “price is the best arbiter of who values the tons”Wink wink nod nod

p k

p k @setiriver

3 Nov 2022

$CF conf call humor:Credit Suisse analyst(of course):Clearly you missed the quarter why was it so bad?Tony Will CF:Politely-you have no idea WTH ur saying🤬! Best Q3 ever, highest pricing ever,shifted to exports bc US was soft.1B ebtida.I’M NOT DISAPPOINTED OR APOLOGETIC! 😂 $LXU

p k

p k @setiriver

2 Nov 2022

From $CF Q3: Management expects the global nitrogen supply-demand balance will remain tight into 2025 due to agriculture-led demand and forward energy curves that point to persistently high energy prices in Europe and Asia. This from the most conservative mgmt in the biz. $LXU

p k

p k @setiriver

28 Sep 2022

Carl Icahn: ”[The] fertilizer business, to me, is a great business today” $UAN, $LXU, $CF finance.yahoo.com/news/billi…

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p k

p k @setiriver

28 Sep 2022

$LXU, $CF, $UAN- $1175 Tampa Ammonia=steady profits in a stormy market

Josh Linville

@JLinvilleFert

26 Sep 2022

October Tampa #NH3 price gets established at only $25 over September. Not a huge jump. Should mean very little for inland values. More an indicator of the international market. Now we wait for sulfur pricing to get a better feel for phosphate production number.

p k

p k @setiriver

6 Sep 2022

$LXU: I was digging through the Q2 10Q and found this gem! LXU prepurchased all their (Non Passthrough) Natural Gas costs until Dec 2023 at $6.44 MMBTU. No mark to market but a nice ~19M gain so far. @_indifferentia @TraderPamplona @FoamOnTheRunway

FSMN

p k retweeted

FSMN

@faststocknewss

5 Apr 2022

*RUSSIA TO EXTEND FERTILIZER EXPORT QUOTA TO SPRING 2023: IFX

Josh Linville

p k retweeted

Josh Linville

@JLinvilleFert

25 Mar 2022

Hearing that the April #NH3 Tampa price has been agreed upon at over $1,600. February price was just over $1,100 and March didn't have an agreed upon value. If you need me, I'll be over here pondering where in the hell we are right now.