I got this wrong in Mamata's Banerjee's case (Samserganj still stands).
Here's why:
More than 51,000 names were deleted from the electoral rolls in Mamata Banerjee’s seat, Bhabanipur.
Out of these, some 11,000 had Died (D), so the ‘net-deletions’ after accounting for the dead, came to about 40,000.
These included people who had Shifted permanently (S), were untraceable or Absent (A), had their names Duplicated (D) in the rolls, or simply people whose names had ‘logical discrepancies.’
Surely, this being Mamata’s seat the TMC would have left no stone unturned to find the missing people, and would have taken those they found to the EC for ‘adjudication’?
Roughly 14,000 people went to the EC to get their names put back on the rolls. The remaining 26,000 didn’t turn up – clearly, they were no longer voters in Bhabanipur.
Out of the 14,000 who went for adjudication, more than 10,000 managed to get back their right to vote.
3,893 people got disenfranchised.
That’s the final number in Bhabanipur – 3,893 living, breathing voters lost their right to vote.
But Mamata Banerjee lost by a margin of 14,651.
Mamata Banerjee lost Bhabanipur because of SIR.
Noor Alam would have lost because of deletions in Samserganj, but managed to scrape through.