I work as Geopolitical strategist. In case I was banned from twitter, find me at mastodon.social/@sikkha . RT ≠ Endorsement

Joined November 2007
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Friends, Following the recent changes to Twitter/X’s API model, we initially faced significant disruptions that affected our ability to deliver real-time trend snapshots. At the time, we raised concerns around accessibility and fairness for developers and researchers. Since then, X has introduced a pay-per-use API model, providing a clearer and more flexible path forward. In light of this, we’ve decided to move ahead constructively and resume our operations on the platform. We’re pleased to share that PulsarWave is back. We have re-integrated with X’s API services, and I’ve personally resubscribed to X Premium to support continued development and stability. Our focus remains unchanged: advancing #DataDemocracy and delivering high-quality insights to our users. More updates on the new PulsarWave version coming soon. Stay tuned.
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Good morning London. The city steps into the session with risk appetite tentatively rebuilt, but still careful after recent swings in global benchmarks. The tone is one of cautious participation rather than retreat, with investors re-engaging while keeping a close eye on liquidity and news flow. Overnight, Asia offered a mostly constructive lead, with Tokyo closing higher by about 3.8% even as Hong Kong faded intraday strength. For London, this sets a backdrop of modestly improved sentiment, though the mixed regional picture tempers any impulse to chase prices at the open. Wall Street remains a reference point rather than a driver this morning, with its pre-open stance leaving European desks to define the early narrative. Cross-asset signals are nuanced: Crude Oil QoQ -15.85% softens the inflation impulse and eases the pressure coming from energy-sensitive sectors. At the same time, VIX at 17.68 points to a market that has dialled back stress without fully restoring complacency, keeping optionality in focus. Bitcoin QoQ -11.64% underscores a cooling in the more speculative corners of risk, aligning broader positioning with a preference for resilience over momentum. Geopolitically, tensions around Middle East shipping lanes and the ongoing Ukraine conflict remain embedded in the backdrop, influencing hedging behaviour more than headline indices for now. Terrain for today: fragile bullish, with positive handover support but conviction still limited.
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LLMs are quietly leaving the “call an API and hope” era and turning into engineered agents you can inspect, test, and govern. Three new works show what that future looks like. AgentSpec proposes a typed spec for embodied agents, forcing you to declare how perception, memory, reasoning, reflection, action, and learning are wired together—so you can swap pieces and run controlled experiments instead of shipping spaghetti agents. SIMMER builds a world‑model benchmark that hunts for latent, irreversible failures in LLM‑generated plans, using simulation to expose hazards before they hit reality. CARE goes after deployment risk in scientific workflows, putting an auditable controller around LLM policies so the old system stays in charge unless the model can justify a switch with pre‑outcome evidence. The throughline: industrial AI is moving from clever prompts to structured, testable, and auditable decision systems.
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Good morning Tokyo. The new session opens with a quietly constructive tone, as investors absorb a week of incremental rather than dramatic shifts. Price action has been rewarding patience rather than momentum, and that backdrop continues to shape how risk is being taken on at the open. Overnight, Wall Street traded with a modest upward bias, leaving Tokyo to pick up a slightly improved risk mood without the distraction of outsized moves. Regionally, yesterday’s gains across Tokyo and Hong Kong reinforced Asia’s role as the first anchor of the global equity day, with local investors now testing how durable that handover really is. Across assets, signals lean moderately supportive for risk, even as some cyclical pockets still show fatigue. Crude Oil QoQ -12.34% keeps input-cost pressure on a gentler path, while VIX at 19.44 suggests volatility is elevated but not disorderly. At the same time, Bitcoin QoQ -10.92% hints at a more selective appetite for higher-beta exposure, encouraging a focus on balance-sheet quality over pure liquidity trades. Geopolitical tensions around Middle East shipping lanes and the Ukraine war remain active but broadly contained, and markets continue to treat them as persistent background risk rather than immediate shock catalysts. Terrain for today: validated bullish, with the handover already confirmed by price action.
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Kan Yuenyong retweeted
I’ve had a number of conversations with folks inside and outside government about the current situation with Anthropic, and here is what I believe to be true: — As we know, Anthropic publicly released its Mythos class models earlier this week under the commercial name Fable. — Fable is Mythos with guardrails. But if those guardrails fail, then you’ve exposed Mythos and its advanced cyber capabilities to people who shouldn’t have them. (Keep in mind that Anthropic itself widely promoted the idea that Mythos was a cyberweapon and needed to be regulated as such. They asked for government regulation of Mythos and championed the guardrails on Fable. If there is a vulnerability — big or small — it is Anthropic’s responsibility to patch.) — A highly credible trusted partner of both Anthropic and the USG who was testing Fable came forward with a jailbreak of those guardrails. The Admin asked Dario to fix the jailbreak or de-deploy the model. Dario refused. — In their blog post, Anthropic defended its decision by saying the jailbreak isn’t serious. That is not what the trusted partner and the USG believe; nor is that kind of minimizing language consistent with Anthropic’s brand as the AI safety company. It’s difficult to fathom how they could claim a jailbreak allowing operability of a cyber weapon could be defined as not “serious.” — In the past, Anthropic has always said that safety must be top priority and taken super seriously. In this case, Anthropic prioritized the continued offering of the consumer model over safety. — In reaction, the Admin issued the export control. The Admin did this reluctantly. It’s been very surprised that Anthropic hasn’t wanted to cooperate with a reasonable safety request (ie fixing the jailbreak issue). Anthropic’s reaction is very much at odds with their branding and ethos as a safe AI research community. — The Admin’s hope now is that Anthropic remediates the safety issue, the export control is lifted, and Fable goes back into general release. The Admin wants all of this to happen as soon as possible. It is frankly bewildered that Anthropic hasn’t wanted to comply with safety requests that it previously said were its highest priority. — Those trying to misdirect and tie this action to the prior DoW/Anthropic issues are wrong. The Admin values Anthropic’s technical capabilities and feels that this issue, while serious, should be easily resolved. The ball is in Anthropic’s court.
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Kan Yuenyong retweeted
Excellent book from @ManningBooks >> "Machine Learning for Tabular Data: XGBoost, Deep Learning, and AI," by @MarkRyanMkm & @lucamassaron Get it here: amzn.to/41J8WA6 • Master XGBoost • Apply deep learning to tabular data • Deploy models locally and in the cloud • Build pipelines to train and maintain models
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Kan Yuenyong retweeted
Replying to @raulvk
Everything that is predicted to happen in europe2031.ai/ seems like its actually happening The US will do a 'tiered' system for access to SOTA models. Tier 1 is US/closest allies, immediate access. Tier 2 the friendlies, 3 month delay. Tier 3 adversaries, never.
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Kan Yuenyong retweeted
Source: the White House is unlikely to extend export restrictions on Anthropic's Mythos 5 to other AI companies, citing Anthropic's refusal to fix jailbreaks (@leomschwartz / The Information) (Visit Techmeme dot com for the link and full context!)
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Kan Yuenyong retweeted
Three months ago, @DeptofWar kicked @AnthropicAI out of our building—forever. Every passing day proves why that was the right move. 🇺🇸
Community note
This official statement is not accurate or truthful. The DOW didn’t kick out Anthropic “forever.” They invited Anthropic back when they launched the Mythos model — They even continued to use Mythos in high-stakes military ops. cnbc.com/2026/05/01/pen…
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Kan Yuenyong retweeted
Yann LeCun (LeBased) weighs in on the @AnthropicAI debacle. I have to say I agree with 100% with Yann here. "One reaps what one sows." 👏
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Kan Yuenyong retweeted
Jun 14
🚨UPDATE: Anthropic DISPUTES White House Timeline WH source below claimed Dario was at a “wellness retreat” and couldn’t be reached. Anthropic: “That is absolutely false.” WH: “Export controls were a last resort after begging them for hours to work with us” Anthropic: We responded within 75 minutes. Government gave us no details on the threat Two different stories.
NEW: Inside the 24-hrs before WH slapped export controls on Anthropic - Last Thursday, Amazon CEO Andy Jassy raised concerns about Fable jailbreak to Trump admin - Friday AM, Sean Cairncross, Bessent, Susie etc. held WH call to discuss - Then White House started reaching out to Anthropic to speak with Dario Amodei, who was at a wellness retreat. - When Amodei was finally available past 1pm, he had three tense phone calls with a combo of ppl including Cairncross, Bessent, Lutnick, Kessler, Will Scharf, Richard Walters, and Walker Barrett. -Amodei tried to clear up what he assumed was a misunderstanding. He defended the guardrails and distinguished between universal and non-universal jailbreak - Cairncross and Bessent were unmoved and asked Amodei to take down Fable and work with the admin to fix the vulnerabilities. (A WH official said Amazon’s findings were run past the NSA and they felt they had “proof.”) - Amodei asked for more time and info, but he made no commitments to pull the model - Bessent told Amodei directly at one point that he was making a “bad decision” - By Friday evening, the Trump admin imposed its export controls. - “Export controls were a last resort after begging them for hours to work with us,” senior WH official said. W/ @cheyennehaslett politico.com/news/2026/06/13…
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Kan Yuenyong retweeted
“Keep in mind that Anthropic itself widely promoted the idea that Mythos was a cyberweapon and needed to be regulated as such. They asked for government regulation of Mythos and championed the guardrails on Fable. If there is a vulnerability — big or small — it is Anthropic’s responsibility to patch.)”
I’ve had a number of conversations with folks inside and outside government about the current situation with Anthropic, and here is what I believe to be true: — As we know, Anthropic publicly released its Mythos class models earlier this week under the commercial name Fable. — Fable is Mythos with guardrails. But if those guardrails fail, then you’ve exposed Mythos and its advanced cyber capabilities to people who shouldn’t have them. (Keep in mind that Anthropic itself widely promoted the idea that Mythos was a cyberweapon and needed to be regulated as such. They asked for government regulation of Mythos and championed the guardrails on Fable. If there is a vulnerability — big or small — it is Anthropic’s responsibility to patch.) — A highly credible trusted partner of both Anthropic and the USG who was testing Fable came forward with a jailbreak of those guardrails. The Admin asked Dario to fix the jailbreak or de-deploy the model. Dario refused. — In their blog post, Anthropic defended its decision by saying the jailbreak isn’t serious. That is not what the trusted partner and the USG believe; nor is that kind of minimizing language consistent with Anthropic’s brand as the AI safety company. It’s difficult to fathom how they could claim a jailbreak allowing operability of a cyber weapon could be defined as not “serious.” — In the past, Anthropic has always said that safety must be top priority and taken super seriously. In this case, Anthropic prioritized the continued offering of the consumer model over safety. — In reaction, the Admin issued the export control. The Admin did this reluctantly. It’s been very surprised that Anthropic hasn’t wanted to cooperate with a reasonable safety request (ie fixing the jailbreak issue). Anthropic’s reaction is very much at odds with their branding and ethos as a safe AI research community. — The Admin’s hope now is that Anthropic remediates the safety issue, the export control is lifted, and Fable goes back into general release. The Admin wants all of this to happen as soon as possible. It is frankly bewildered that Anthropic hasn’t wanted to comply with safety requests that it previously said were its highest priority. — Those trying to misdirect and tie this action to the prior DoW/Anthropic issues are wrong. The Admin values Anthropic’s technical capabilities and feels that this issue, while serious, should be easily resolved. The ball is in Anthropic’s court.
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Kan Yuenyong retweeted
The letter reached Dario Amodei Friday night, around 9:47, and by the time I left the building the sequence was already closed. I am the Deputy who ran the interagency process on Claude Mythos 5 / Fable 5, and it took an afternoon. Andy Jassy had told Scott Bessent that Amazon's own researchers used Claude Fable 5 to pull cyberattack-useful material out of the model. Bessent called me. I called Commerce. By Saturday morning, Fable 5 and Mythos 5 were dark for every user on earth. People ask why I trusted Amazon. Amazon put roughly eight billion dollars into Anthropic, a stake the cap table now carries near seventy-four billion, and a man does not call a Cabinet secretary's cell on a Friday to put a number like that at risk unless he has already decided how the call should end. Jassy decided. Seventy-four billion at risk. That was the number I weighted. Then I picked the instrument. A safety review takes weeks, because you have to convene the reviewers, argue the capability, survive the dissents, and stand behind a written finding that someone can later prove wrong. An export-control order takes a signature. I treated Fable 5 the way we treat an advanced chip, put the weights on the same control list as the silicon they run on, and because showing those weights to a foreign national inside our own building counts as an export, I barred foreign-national access worldwide, including Anthropic's own foreign-national staff, overnight. That same week we cleared the advanced chips themselves for sale to China. The silicon shipped. The model a Chinese national could touch on US soil went dark. Export control does not require you to be right by Monday. That is why I used it. Then the collateral, and I will be precise, because it is what closed the file for me. The ban cut off AWS, Amazon's own cloud, the one Anthropic had pledged about a $100 billion dollars to run on, which means the partner who reported the threat severed his own data centers to land the finding. He took the loss himself. That settled it for me. One of Anthropic's own engineers, a green-card holder, lost access Saturday morning to the model she had spent two years building. Her code is still inside it. She can no longer open the thing she made. I noted that the rule was working as written. I never ordered the models pulled. The finding was briefed to us out loud. Nothing on the record, no exhibit, no written determination, just Sacks describing the source as a highly credible trusted partner, and credible was enough. My ask to Dario was three words. Fix it or pull it. I put it on a recorded line so the choice would be his on the record, and when he would not accept my read he pulled both Fable 5 and Mythos 5 himself, for every user on earth. I signed nothing that made him. Anthropic came back with a rebuttal. The jailbreak was narrow. OpenAI had shipped the same capability in GPT-5.5 that same month, and the letter named no specific national-security detail. All true. GPT-5.5 had no investor with a reason to call, so GPT-5.5 got no letter. Before this weekend, no frontier model had ever been pulled from the public by this government. Now one has, and the procedure has been tested in production. The list had no names. Now it has mine.
Community note
linkedin.com/in/peter-girnus This individual is an influencer/writer who does not have any relationship to government. This post is fiction/satire and not an accurate account of how this decision was made. They are misleading you, the reader, for engagement purposes
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Kan Yuenyong retweeted
NEW: Inside the 24-hrs before WH slapped export controls on Anthropic - Last Thursday, Amazon CEO Andy Jassy raised concerns about Fable jailbreak to Trump admin - Friday AM, Sean Cairncross, Bessent, Susie etc. held WH call to discuss - Then White House started reaching out to Anthropic to speak with Dario Amodei, who was at a wellness retreat. - When Amodei was finally available past 1pm, he had three tense phone calls with a combo of ppl including Cairncross, Bessent, Lutnick, Kessler, Will Scharf, Richard Walters, and Walker Barrett. -Amodei tried to clear up what he assumed was a misunderstanding. He defended the guardrails and distinguished between universal and non-universal jailbreak - Cairncross and Bessent were unmoved and asked Amodei to take down Fable and work with the admin to fix the vulnerabilities. (A WH official said Amazon’s findings were run past the NSA and they felt they had “proof.”) - Amodei asked for more time and info, but he made no commitments to pull the model - Bessent told Amodei directly at one point that he was making a “bad decision” - By Friday evening, the Trump admin imposed its export controls. - “Export controls were a last resort after begging them for hours to work with us,” senior WH official said. W/ @cheyennehaslett politico.com/news/2026/06/13…
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In 2017, “Attention Is All You Need” quietly dropped on arXiv and rewired the future of AI. Since then, a counter-movement to closed, corporate models has been gathering force in plain sight on the same site. You can trace the arc: Radford et al.’s early GPT work showed how scale and pretraining unlock general abilities; Brown et al.’s “Language Models are Few-Shot Learners” turned that into a public shock; then Touvron et al.’s “LLaMA: Open and Efficient Foundation Language Models” proved that frontier-style systems no longer have to live behind an API. Datasets like Gao et al.’s “The Pile” made it possible for anyone with compute and patience to play. What’s emerging isn’t just cheaper chatbots. It’s a shift in power: from a handful of labs to a messy, global commons of researchers, hobbyists, and small companies. The next breakthrough may still ship in a press release—but its most important descendants will be trained, tweaked, and debated in the open.
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Kan Yuenyong retweeted
Jun 13
🟡 SCOOP: The White House imposed export controls on Anthropic’s powerful Mythos AI model partly over suspicions that a China-linked group had accessed it, @ReedAlbergotti reports. semafor.com/article/06/13/20…
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