Joined August 2013
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Had some fun and took my guess at the top 12 finishers at each position for the upcoming year.
open.substack.com/pub/thepro…
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Quick write up expanding on my guys in fantasy this year amongst other thoughts. New publication I’m calling The Progression.
open.substack.com/pub/thepro…
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New article on running backs, how I’m approaching 2026 best ball, and “my guys”. Read for free.
open.substack.com/pub/silver…
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894
Was pretty bullish on JSN going into 2025 and it paid off.
This year’s JSN is Chris Olave to me.
31 May 2025
Why doesn’t JSN go at the 1-2 turn? He could be top 5 in targets in 2025, was WR7 from weeks 8-17 in 2024, and has a 30 point single week ceiling.
I think we’re underrating his range of outcomes if he takes a leap as a #1.
11
90
28,400
Called my shot on JSN leading the NFL in yards. Think Olave has a chance to make the leap to 1400 yards and 0.28 TPRR.
Skill players around him improved, Shough year 2 development, a dynamite fantasy playoff schedule.
x.com/silverfalcon77/status/…
25 Mar 2025
29.3% target share for Drake London. Third in total EPA. Could be TD king. JSN less targets per route run than Michael Pittman. Leap and he could lead NFL in yards.
Bateman WR55 ADP just makes no sense, best non-rookie value at WR to me.
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2
1,995
Doesn’t even need to take a leap to pay off ADP. Olave finished WR9 in 2025 PPG (half PPR) and he’s WR14/ADP 33 this year? Why?
Tyson concerns are overblown, in fact playing with a target earning WR2 is a good thing for the overall offense and likelihood of points. I’m in.
5
796
I bet Robust RB doesn’t win it this year. When lobbies are mechanically doing this, the value feels really minimal.
15
113
22,304
How sure are we that Joe Burrow should be the QB3 by ADP?
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8
2,521
I think Cam Skattebo finishes as an RB1, Christian Watson as a WR1, Purdy as a QB1, and Dallas Goedert as a TE1.
Various reasons on each but targeting them big time in early drafts.
14
89
11,690
Cam Skattebo should be going at the 2-3 turn.
Robust RB is hot right now in Best Ball contests, so I used @FantasyPtsData to create Spike Week and Semi-Spike Week charts for RBs as well!
Semi- Spike Week: >15.0 1/2 PPR Fantasy Points
Spike Week: >20.0 1/2 PPR Fantasy Points
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481
Cowboys had an impressive draft. Love what they did in round 1.
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Impressive where QB prices opened on the Big Board. It’s a madhouse now.
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141
Some of the big board drafts before free agency could be interesting. A lot of values.
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658
Doubs would be worth a top 50 ADP if this is true.
Mar 6
ESPN’s Dan Graziano predicts FA WR Romeo Doubs will sign a 3-year $49 million dollar contract, including $30 million guaranteed with the 49ers
“Doubs is still 25 years old (turns 26 in April) and is viewed by teams as a receiver who can thrive in a number of different schemes. He could be the guy this year that you look at and say, "Wow, he got that much?", Doubs caught 55 passes for 724 yards and six touchdowns in 2025.”
— Dan Graziano
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RJ Harvey’s ADP is nuts. Broncos are doing everything to avoid him being the bell cow. The only player with a lower explosive % w/ 100 rushes was Chuba Hubbard.
Basically just an expensive Woody Marks (1.9 vs 1.8 yards before contact, 1.8 vs 1.8 after, both -0.15 EPA/rush.)
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1,130
Chiefs fans complained about the stagnant offense all year but don’t want to sign an RB.
98
Get these kids a podcast.
Feb 18
I’m teaching a class about my job this week to a bunch of middle schoolers. Today they debated and voted on an NFL quarterbacking tier list.
Here is their list.
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Puka being on 85% of the Gauntlet final teams is wild. Very few live lineups.
I’m projected to finish 64th in the Gauntlet and 8th in Little Mitten 2.
2
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1,427
Zero RB teams in this year’s Big Board end up legitimately disgusting. Good luck to anyone building them.
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25
3,033